The Tampa Bay Rays are the only team in the AL East not in contention for the division title. In another universe, Blue Jays fans would be enjoying a breather at the prospect of the two teams’ final series this week at the Rogers Centre. But the Rays have had an uncanny knack for solving the Jays—they are the only team in the AL East with a winning record (9-7) against Toronto. So what chance do the Jays have of recovering ground lost this past weekend in the series loss to the Red Sox?
Here’s our look ahead.
Mon., Sept. 12, 7:07 p.m.
Francisco Liriano (LHP) vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP)
Tues., Sept. 13, 7:07 p.m.
Marcus Stroman (RHP) vs. Drew Smyly (LHP)
Wed., Sept. 14, 12:37 p.m.
Marco Estrada (RHP) vs. Alex Cobb (RHP)
Head-to-head
The fact that most of the games to date between these division rivals have taken place at Tropicana Field offers no real consolation to fans—the Jays are 2-4 at home and 5-5 on the road against Tampa Bay. In May the Rays swept Toronto at the Rogers Centre, twice beating them by 10 or more runs. (Cumulatively, the Rays have scored 83 runs to the Blue Jays’ 65.)
The Jays fared better at home more recently, pulling off their one series win (out of five) against the Rays in early August. In fact, the Blue Jays have lost “only” three series to Tampa—the first series of the season was a draw, a fact that may have been lost amidst sky-high expectations and disgruntlement over the thwarting of a near-comeback win in the third game when Jose Bautista was called out at second thanks to the new slide rule.
Take a look at their mound
Odorizzi has been tough for Blue Jays batters to hit—only three (Kevin Pillar, Michael Saunders and Devon Travis) have an average of .250 or higher against him (though Travis is five-for-nine). He’s got a record 9-6 for the season and is 4-1 over his last seven games. The last time the Jays faced him, on Aug. 8, they’d scored four runs by the bottom of the fourth, and had forced Odorizzi out after 5.1 innings (the Rays at that point also had four runs, against R.A. Dickey). The Blue Jays went on to win that game 7–4.
Smyly is 2-2 against the Blue Jays this season, but won the last two of those outings, holding Toronto to one and two runs in five and six innings of work. Cobb, who returned to the Rays rotation on Sept. 2 after missing nearly two full seasons of play due to Tommy John surgery, promptly beat the Blue Jays in Tampa in his first game back.
Rotation machinations
Liriano gets the start against the Rays on Monday, taking Dickey’s spot in the rotation. Dickey has struggled of late, most significantly giving up five runs in four innings of work against the Yankees last week. Liriano did his best to pull Toronto out of that hole, pitching two shutout innings in relief in the fifth and sixth.
Liriano has won one start for the Blue Jays—on Aug. 26, against the Twins—since coming over from Pittsburgh in August. However, the veteran lefty’s record against Tampa hitters is not for the faint of heart. (If you dare to read on: Rays third baseman Evan Longoria has a career BA of .313 against Liriano; 34-year-old shortstop Alexei Ramirez is 14-for-33. There isn’t a hitter in the Rays lineup who’s faced Liriano and not hit him.)
That’s baseball
When the Red Sox roared back—twice!—on Sunday to erase run deficits (and crush the euphoria set off by Troy Tulowitzki’s grand slam), was anyone really all that surprised? No, because that’s the Red Sox. They have the power. The Tampa Bay Rays? Not so much. And it’s not like the meetings between Toronto and Tampa have been particularly high-scoring affairs (apart from those two games in May). It’s just that the Blue Jays don’t score against Tampa. They fare better against every other team in the division, with 67 cumulative runs against the Yankees, 76 against Boston, and 90 versus the hard-hitting Baltimore Orioles. The best the Jays have done against Tampa was Aug. 10, in a 7–0 J.A. Happ–shutout.
Spoiler alert?
The Rays are 20 games back at the moment—they will not be playing in the post-season. But they can still play a spoiler role, and this series represents one such opportunity. Beat the Blue Jays and set them further back in the standings—possibly even out of wild-card position. At the same time, if the Blue Jays can finally shake the Tampa Bay monkey off their back, they have a chance to regain their footing in the division.
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