TORONTO – The temptation is to immediately conclude that the waiver claim of Justin Smoak from the Seattle Mariners heralds the end of Adam Lind’s tenure with the Toronto Blue Jays – and that very well may be the case.
But before you rush to post your No. 26 jersey on Kijiji, give the dominoes some time to fall. At this point, this is a move that opens up some intriguing possibilities for GM Alex Anthopoulos, and the coming days will tell us if the initial read is correct.
The off-season officially starts Thursday after Game 7 of the World Series between the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals, and teams will have between three and five days to make their calls on players with options such as Lind, whose $7.5 million contract for next year is expected to be exercised (it includes another option worth $8 million for 2016).
Lind, who has a career OPS of .860 against right-handed pitchers, is an asset, especially at that price given the weak crop of offensive players on the current free agent market. The Blue Jays could try to trade him before the options deadline, or they could also hang on to him until much deeper into the winter when the few sluggers on the market are gone and jilted teams in need of pop come calling.
Or they could keep him, too, knowing that with Colby Rasmus on his way out, the Blue Jays will be suddenly short on effective left-handed bats, an issue that will need to be addressed.
Either way the waiver claim of Smoak, the once-promising slugging prospect, won’t be the move that pushes Lind out. At best, it lays some groundwork that allows the Blue Jays to seriously consider other possibilities, knowing that they’re covered.
Still, Smoak is an interesting pickup because he can become more than just roster insurance, and there’s reason to believe the Blue Jays want to give him a real, legitimate look as he’s got supporters in the organization.
They’re not sure exactly what they have in him.
A first-round pick in 2008 who turns 28 on Dec. 5, the switch-hitter was once a top-10 prospect who posted consecutive seasons of 15, 19 and 20 home runs with the Mariners from 2011-2013 before his performance cratered in 2014.
There’s certainly the talent and potential for Smoak to be more productive at the plate, but even if he can regain the form he showed in 2013, when he posted an .839 OPS against right-handers, the Blue Jays could form an effective platoon at first base with Edwin Encarnacion and John Mayberry Jr., allowing them to move Lind for other parts.
Such a scenario would give Encarnacion more frequent DH at bats (something he enjoys because it provides time to watch video between at-bats), create opportunities at DH for other everyday players when Smoak sits against left-handed pitchers (something that may help ease the wear and tear on the club’s regulars), and upgrade the defence at first base simultaneously.
As an added benefit which wouldn’t be immaterial to all these machinations, the Blue Jays could save something near $5 million, as Smoak has a $3.65 million option that will be bought out for $150,000 with the team retaining his rights through arbitration on a non-guaranteed deal.
That $5 million would come in handy for trying to re-sign free agent outfielder Melky Cabrera, whose salary may land anywhere between Jhonny Peralta’s $53-million, four-year deal with the St. Louis Cardinals last winter to the $72.5-million, seven-year contract the Boston Red Sox gave Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo in August.
And with the bullpen and infield also needing help, Anthopoulos will need to make every dollar count.
Put together, there’s a pretty good case to be made for moving Lind, and if the Blue Jays also happen to be looking for ways to change the mix in the clubhouse for the sake of change, trading him would help accomplish that.
But let’s remember, too, that Smoak comes with no guarantees, and was put on waivers by an offence-starved Mariners team that had all the incentive in the world to see him succeed since he was the centre-piece of their return from Texas for Cliff Lee.
There’s a reason they pulled the plug.
Lind, meanwhile, is ninth on the Blue Jays’ all-time list with 146 home runs and eighth in RBIs at 519, with plenty more production to come. That’s why if Anthopoulos plans to move him, it must be worth his while.
