Canadians Abroad Roundup: Projecting a 12-man roster for the 2023 World Cup

The Canadian senior men’s basketball team is going to the World Cup and, for the first time in a long time, the nation’s best players will be there. 

After finishing qualification as the top team from the Americas with an 11-1 record, Canada will descend upon Jakarta, Indonesia on Aug. 25 to begin a World Cup in which it will try to finish on the podium or at least top-two in the Americas in order to qualify outright for the 2024 Paris Olympics. Indonesia has selected Canada as its preferred team and intends to treat it like the host country, where it plays until heading to Manilla, Philippines for the final stage. 

Thirty different players suited up for the red and white during qualification, but only 12 will make the trip to Asia for the World Cup, the majority being NBA players. In fact, Team Canada is going to look radically different than the last time it appeared in a World Cup in 2019, when it had just two NBA players, Cory Joseph and Khem Birch, on a squad that somewhat predictably finished 21st in the tournament and 7th in the Americas.

So, what is that 12-man roster going to look like? We know that preference will be given to members of Canada’s 14-man “summer core” who made a three-summer commitment to the program last summer. But what about the winter players who have shown a commitment to the program and have experience playing international basketball such as Philip Scrubb, Thomas Scrubb and Kassius Robertson? Plus, what about players like Bennedict Mathurin, Shaedon Sharpe and Andrew Nembhard who were not in the NBA When the “summer core” was announced?

After talking to Canada Basketball CEO Michael Bartlett and parsing through recent comments from Team Canada head coach Nick Nurse, it seems there will be some wiggle room for new players to commit to the program the next two summers as long as they don’t expect to just show up and play in Paris. Ultimately, it feels like Canada will select its 12 most talented and best-fitting players for the World Cup roster. That, at least, is the basis that this exercise will be going off of. We are also assuming health. And we are also assuming Andrew Wiggins is off the table. 

So, without further ado, here is what Canada’s 12-man roster could look like at the 2023 FIBA World Cup. It is broken down by starters, bench, and depth.

Starters: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, RJ Barrett, Kelly Olynyk, Dwight Powell

This group seems fairly obvious given the NBA talent and commitment to the program these five players have shown. In fact, all five players are members of the summer core, and three of them started together in qualification games this past summer, with Gilgeous-Alexander running point and Olynyk and Powell manning the front court — those two have played together for years and fit nicely beside each other.

Meanwhile, both Murray and Barrett were excused absences this summer due to Murray’s injury recovery and Barrett’s contract situation. But now that Murray is healthy and Barrett is signed to a long-term deal, I expect both of them to be available at the World Cup. Barrett is having a down year in the NBA, but he is a steward of the Canadian program and a good fit beside Gilgeous-Alexander and Murray as someone who can guard multiple positions and finish plays. And while Murray is fully committed to the program, his health and the length of the Denver Nuggets playoff run will be a big factor when it comes to whether or not he will play this summer, according to Nurse. 

The team will be built around Gilgeous-Alexander and to a lesser extent Murray and Olynyk on offence, so the rest of the roster has to amplify its strengths while covering up for some of its limitations, including three-point shooting and defence.

Bench: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Lu Dort, Dillon Brooks, Bennedict Mathurin, Thomas Scrubb 

This is where things get interesting. First of all, Dort and Brooks are locks as long as they are available. Brooks told me that he will play as long as he has a contract signed, and because NBA free agency opens before the World Cup, I expect him and the Memphis Grizzlies to come to an agreement in time for the tournament. While Brooks was the one unexcused absence from one of last summer’s training camps, he is too talented and versatile of a defender to leave off the roster, and Nurse likes the energy and fight he brings to the floor. Dort, meanwhile, is having the best year of his career.

Next is Mathurin, who Nurse said “has expressed a strong interest in playing this summer.” Despite the fact that he missed out on the experience of playing last summer and will therefore have a lot of catching up to do, Mathurin has experience in the Canadian program at the youth level and is one of the best rookies in the NBA and a potential candidate for the Sixth Man of the Year award. In fact, Mathurin plays years ahead of his age and is such a shot-maker and shot-creator that he will be a boon to Team Canada’s bench. Plus, Canada Basketball probably shouldn’t risk upsetting a young star in the making who has clearly expressed interest in playing just because he wasn’t in the NBA last summer when it made the 14-man summer core.

The next two players to come off the bench are anybody’s guess, but this is clearly a team heavy on wings and short on pure point guards and frontcourt depth. That said, Alexander-Walker can run some point, which he did last summer alongside his cousin Gilgeous-Alexander. And Thomas Scrubb can play multiple frontcourt positions and protect the rim decently, filling a need for Canada as a bench big who can play the four or five.

The reason there is no pure point guard coming off the bench is because I expect Nurse to stagger Gilgeous-Alexander and Murray’s minutes so that one of them is always on the floor to manage games. There are simply no other Canadian point guards who come close to matching their abilities to manage a team, create their own shot, shoot and pass, with all due respect to Kevin Pangos, Cory Joseph or rookie Andrew Nembhard — although Nembhard is getting there. 

Depth: Cory Joseph, Zach Edey

Again, the final two spots are anybody’s guess, but I am leaning towards Nurse and co. landing on Joseph and Edey. While I don’t expect either to play heavy minutes, Joseph will get the nod because he is the most recent captain of the team and should be rewarded for his long-term commitment to the program, even if his best days are probably behind him. Edey, on the other hand, should get the nod because his best days are in front of him, and he is in many ways the future of the big man position for Canada, so the experience could prove vital for the 20-year-old. 

Plus, point guard and centre are the two positions Canada is the thinnest at. And because this tournament is a marathon, not a sprint, the team will need depth at every position in case anything happens health-wise or a matchup dictates it. 

Nearly Missing out: Khem Birch, Oshae Brissett, Andrew Nembhard, Shaedon Sharpe, Kevin Pangos, Philip Scrubb, Kassius Robertson, Melvin Ejim, and many more. 

Birch or Ejim could easily take Thomas Scrubb’s spot on the team, although Scrubb is probably the most versatile. Meanwhile, Brissett, Philip Scrubb or Robertson could potentially take Alexander-Walker’s spot and provide more shooting, but Alexander-Walker impressed last summer and is having by far the best three-point shooting season of his career, albeit on a relatively low number of attempts (41 per cent on 2.1 attempts per game). Finally, Pangos could potentially take Joseph’s spot, but my bet is that Joseph’s leadership and floor-generalling will be wanted. 

In the end, my projected 12-man roster for Team Canada at the 2023 FIBA World Cup is: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, RJ Barrett, Kelly Olynyk, Dwight Powell, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Lu Dort, Dillon Brooks, Bennedict Mathurin, Thomas Scrubb, Cory Joseph and Zach Edey. It feels like a small team, especially by international basketball standards, but Canada should play to its strengths and dictate terms by bringing its most skilled team possible there, even if rebounding and rim protection could be an issue. 

What this exercise demonstrates, more than anything, is that it is going to be incredibly tough for Team Canada leadership to select a 12-man roster. And several very good players, including NBA players, are going to be left off the team. But the exercise also demonstrates just how talented this team could be if everyone is healthy and committed, and if Canada Basketball simply chooses the most talented and best-fitting players to represent them next summer.