March Madness is upon us. There are 21 Canadians in the men’s NCAA tournament and at least 20 in the women’s tournament, so there are plenty of reasons to watch and cheer if you’re a Canadian. With star players Aaliyah Edwards (UConn), Emanuel Miller (TCU), Tyrese Samuel (Florida), Ryan Nembhard (Gonzaga) and Zach Edey (Purdue), Canada is well represented in this year’s field.
But it’s been a hard year to decipher who to pick to advance, especially on the men’s side, as teams fluidly moved up and down in the top 25 all season and there were major conference tournaments that had major upsets and surprise champions. The prohibitive favourite on the men’s side is the defending champion and No. 1 overall seed Connecticut, the only top seed to win its conference tournament. But no team has won back-to-back titles in 17 years. UConn is looking to become just the third repeat champion in the last 50 years.
When filling out a bracket history, data can be our finest teacher. Here are some key numbers to help you narrow down your selections as you endeavour for a perfect bracket:
MEN'S BRACKET
Don’t go chalk
A sure way to lose your bracket is to pick the top seeds all the way through. The aggregate number of seeds in the final four last year was 23, with UConn being the top seed at 4. All four No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four just once, in 2008. Add to that fact an eight or nine seed has beaten a one seed in the second round in 10 of the last 13 tournaments. Similarly, No. 2 seeds have not reached the championship game since 2016. Three teams reached their first Final Four last year, the most since 1970, so don’t be afraid to get creative.
However, a No. 5 seed is the highest to ever win the NCAA tournament. So, if you’re going to get adventurous, don’t make your championship pick too high.
Don’t hate on No. 1s
Although picking all favourites makes no sense, remember, the No. 1 seeds garnered that ranking for a reason. In 39 of the last 42 tournaments, a one seed has made the Final Four. When it comes to winning it all, 12 of the last 16 champions have been one seeds.
Not so fast
Most people fill out the bracket before the First Four games are even played. Not so fast. The first four teams have reached the Final Four twice before.
At large is live
At-large teams have won seven of the last nine championships. There is no correlation between winning your conference tournament and the NCAA Tournament, so don’t be scared off from all the conference tournament upsets.
East Coast bias
The last team to win from Mountain or Pacific time zone was Arizona, in 1997. With this in mind, you might want to cross off Pac-12 rivals Arizona and Oregon.
Big Ten comes up small
The Big Ten’s last national champion was Michigan State, in 2000, but the conference has had 14 teams reach the men’s Final Four since 2001. In that span, they are 0-7 in the title game.
That’s the most losses without a win by a conference this century. So, have some caution when choosing Purdue, which last made the Final Four in 1980.
Purdue vs. David
Purdue represents Goliath versus David in more ways than Zech Edey’s overpowering seven-foot-four size. Purdue has struggled with the relative minnows in recent years.
In 2021, Purdue lost in the round of 64 versus No. 13-ranked North Texas in overtime as 7.5 point favourites.
In 2022, Purdue lost in the Sweet 16 versus No. 15 seed Saint Peter's as a 13-point favourites.
In 2023, Purdue lost in the round of 64 versus 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson as 23.5-point favourites. Purdue is now the first team, since seeding began, to lose to a 13-seed or worse in three straight tournaments.
11 heaven
If you want to find a higher ranked team that can go far, look no further than the 11 seed line. An 11 seed has reached the sweet 16 in 10 of the last 13 tournaments. Five times during that period, two 11 seeds got that far. The five versus 12 used to be the trendy upset pick, however only two 12 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 since 2014.
Winners win
Don’t overthink it early. When analyzing matchups, don’t just look at seeds, look at records as a guide. The team with the better record in the round of 64 has won 70 per cent of the time in the last five tournaments and was 25-7 last year.
Gonzaga makes it to the second weekend
Gonzaga hasn’t gotten over the hump and won it all, but it consistently makes runs. Gonzaga has reached eight straight Sweet 16s.
Region of death
The South region is full of great programs that expect to win national championships because they have already won a bunch. Kentucky leads the way with eight national titles, Duke is gaining ground with five, Florida and NC State each have two, and Marquette and Wisconsin both have won it all once.
Big dogs are big winners
In the last five tournaments, double-digit underdogs are 31-31 against the spread with six outright wins. In four of the last five tournaments, at least one double-digit underdog has advanced to the round of 32.
Bet the under early
The tournament is exciting but also low scoring. The under hit in 59 per cent of games in the first round in the last five tournaments.
Last year, the under hit in 75 per cent of games the first round, the highest in the last five tournaments.
WOMEN'S BRACKET
Top seeds dominate early
In the first round, all the big favourites advance. The 14, 15, 16 seeds are a combined 1-347 in the first round.
11 heaven on both sides of the bracket
The 11 seed line is where you draw the line and start to find upsets. In the last five tournaments, 11 seeds have eight wins in the first round and three teams advancing to the Sweet 16.
High seeds in Sweet 16
In each of the last two years, a nine seed or higher has won a Sweet 16 game, which happened only twice in the previous 22 tournaments.
Pick the power teams to win it all
The No. 1 seed has won 31 of 41 national championships, but no team outside of the three seed has ever won the championships. In fact, at least two No. 1 seeds have made the final four in 17 of last 18 tournaments. The only three title games played by two non-No. 1 seeds were last year, 2012 and 1994.
First four are first out
No first four team has advanced past the round of 32.
LSU in tough
LSU was not only given a tough draw, but history also isn’t on their side. No team has repeated as champion since upon 2013-16.
COMMENTS
When submitting content, please abide by our submission guidelines, and avoid posting profanity, personal attacks or harassment. Should you violate our submissions guidelines, we reserve the right to remove your comments and block your account. Sportsnet reserves the right to close a story’s comment section at any time.