DeMar DeRozan catches the inbounds pass to the right of centre court and stares down Houston Rockets all-star James Harden. There are just 37 seconds left in the late-March contest and the Toronto Raptors are clinging to the 97-96 lead DeRozan gave them with a beautiful drive, spin and finish less than a minute earlier—matching his career-high of 40 points in the process. Now, with a chance to ice the game, every eyeball in the sold-out Air Canada Centre is glued on the Raptors star.
Perhaps wanting to make his own presence felt, Harden closes in, applying a little pressure. DeRozan it shrugs off and cuts to his left. When he reaches the wing, he makes his move. Three quick crossover dribbles and he’s inside the three-point arc. Two more steps and he’s at the elbow. DeRozan rises and fires with Harden’s hand in his face. Cash. A new career-high and, more importantly, a three-point lead for the Raptors with 18 seconds left. Toronto holds on to win.
Plays like that clutch mid-range bucket over the Beard aren’t really supposed to work in today’s NBA. The rise of analytics (led by the Rockets and their GM Daryl Morey) has placed a premium on three-pointers, free throws and shots in the restricted area—high-percentage or high-reward looks to the exclusion of all others. The mid-range is where offences go to stall and die, or so the most popular trend in NBA thinking would have you believe.
As such, the majority of NBA teams build their offences to specifically set up drives and three-point attempts—and design their defences to stop much of the same. Their willingness to give up mid-range looks is a crucial part of what makes DeRozan so tough to stop. And as opponents buckle down even harder in the playoffs—packing the paint and chasing shooters off the arc—expect the 25-year-old to take his game to a whole new level.
Of the 27 shots DeRozan took in that March 30th game against the Rockets, 12 of them came in the mid-range area, including the big shot that iced the game with 18 ticks left. In this day and age, most shooting guards just don’t put up shot charts like that, but for DeRozan, it’s pretty commonplace.
In the regular season, DeRozan took 508 mid-range field-goal attempts—tied for the fifth-most in the NBA. Of the five players who lived in No Man’s Land as much or more than DeMar, four are big men and the fifth is Dallas’s Monta Ellis, who played 20 more games than DeRozan this season.
But it’s not just DeRozan’s box scores that recall previous generations. At six-foot-seven and 220 lb., he’s also more classically built than most modern two-guards. It’s no wonder, then, that his game is modelled after the shooting guards of old.
“I was a big fan of just always watching the old basketball,” DeRozan says after a practice in early April. “I was a big fan of Allan Houston, for example, obviously [Michael] Jordan, Kobe [Bryant], Latrell Sprewell. A lot of twos, perimeter players, always played where I do, too—isolations, mid-range, coming off screens. I just try to implement that into my game.”
More than just implement, DeRozan recreates, whether it’s coming off screens, recognizing a post-up opportunity or taking a guy one-on-one off the dribble. It may not be the most efficient of styles, but it’s clearly getting the job done. Ever since his 35-point outburst against the Philadelphia 76ers on March 2, DeRozan has been absolutely on fire, averaging 24 points per game on 45.5 percent shooting down the stretch.
Raptors coach Dwane Casey has a simple explanation for DeRozan’s perceived hot streak. “DeMar is just now getting back physically in condition from his [early-season groin injury]—missing those 22 games,” Casey says. “I know it’s been a long time, but just getting the confidence in his body where he can explode up over the defence, make moves, move laterally defensively—I think all of that is coming back now.
“You don’t just walk back into an NBA game with the type of injury he’s had and be who you used to be. So he’s coming back now, it’s a great time for him—we need him—especially now that we’re going into the playoffs.”
Casey’s right to get excited at the thought of what his star two-guard could do in the second-season—DeRozan’s game is ideally suited for playoff basketball. When asked about analytics and some of the criticism he receives for taking contested mid-range shots, DeRozan scowls a little. “I don’t let nobody or nothing depict my game or play,” he begins. “I am who I am and I’m gonna go out there and play to win. I feel like if you put five guys out there that play to win and play their heart out, all that [analytic thought] shouldn’t matter. Me personally, I never get caught up in all that or think about it. I just take what they give me.”
Read that last sentence again. Now, think about what’s most vehemently defended in the playoffs—the paint and the three-point line—and what will likely be “given” to teams: the mid-range area that DeRozan already uses as a base of operations.
That extra space will be a godsend. According to data from NBA.com, 38.1 percent of DeRozan’s mid-range looks this season came with a defender playing either “tight” or “very tight”—part of the reason he’s shot just 37.1 percent on mid-range looks since March 2. With playoff opponents less willing to sag off three-point shooters or leave the restricted area, DeRozan should be left with ample space to work.
Of course, there’s a playoff-friendly aspect of DeRozan’s game that’s also analytically approved: he gets to the free-throw line. This season, DeRozan is averaging 7.2 free-throw attempts per game, good for fifth in the league, and since his game really started clicking in March that number has climbed to 7.8 attempts per.
Being able to draw fouls is even more key in the playoffs because it stops the clock and allows your defence to get set. The Raptors’ stopping power has been suspect all season and there’s little indication it’ll suddenly turn around, so being able to get points on the board without getting caught in transition will be very important for the team moving forward.
“The reason [DeRozan’s mid-range game] works is because he gets to the free-throw line,” Casey explains. “That offsets the three-point shooting. Now, if he didn’t get to the free-throw line and was shooting all those mid-range [jumpers], it’d be a nightmare.”
Fortunately for Casey and the Raptors, what could be nightmarish is instead an asset heading towards the playoffs. Whether you like it or not, DeMar DeRozan is going to ply his craft on the part of the floor every basketball analytics guru will say is the wrong choice—and he and the Raptors will find success in the playoffs precisely because no one expects it to work.