It’s been a rough two-and-a-half-month ride for the Indiana Pacers, but despite all the ups-and-downs and the bump and bruises they’ve endured along the way, they’ve finally earned a second crack at the Eastern Conference Final against the team they’ve had on their minds since they were blown out in last year’s Game 7.
Indiana was right there with the Miami Heat in 2013 as Paul George took his first steps into superstardom. Ultimately falling short, they laid a large portion of the blame for that failure on the fact that Miami had home-court advantage in the series.
Coming into this season, locking up the No. 1 seed in the East was a public priority, and even though Indiana nearly let it slip through their fingers, the club was still able to achieve its goal.
Just because Miami lacks home-court advantage this time around doesn’t mean the Heat will crumble. The Heat have looked like the best team in the post-season, and while their competition hasn’t been the toughest, their level of play has been outstanding when they’ve decided to turn it on. And because they’ve only played nine games thus far, as opposed to the 13 Indiana’s been forced to slog through, they should be the fresher team coming in.
Regardless of how each team got here, this is the rematch every basketball fan wanted to see. Let’s get to it.
No. 1 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 2 Miami Heat
99.2 (14) OffRtg 113.2 (1)
96.8 (1) DefRtg 104.2 (6)
44.4% (10) FG% 48.8% (2)
37.9% (3) 3P% 38.7% (2)
Leaders
Paul George, 21.9 (11) PPG LeBron James, 30.0 (2)
George, 8.7 (13) RPG James, 7.1 (30)
David West, 4.4 (23) APG James, 4.7 (16)
George, 20.16 (26) PER James, 29.40 (2)
Note: Playoff rankings in brackets
What the Pacers have to do to win
Indiana’s winning formula remains the same as always: Smother their opponent on defence, dominate the glass and intimidate with their superior size and strength. It earned the Pacers three wins against the Heat last year, and it should work well again.
Indiana was essentially constructed as the complete antithesis to the Heat. While Miami embraced the small-ball revolution, the Pacers went big and built a defence around their anchor in the middle, Roy Hibbert. The former Georgetown standout hasn’t had the greatest of post-seasons, but he has come on of late and as his confidence has grown, so has his team’s. Last year against the Heat in the conference final, Big Roy averaged 22.1 points and 9.4 rebounds per game, while shooting 55.7 percent from the field. When he’s on, no one on Miami can guard him, nor keep him off the boards. Indiana must exploit this fact. Getting the big guy grooving will lead to baskets late in the shot clock and a slowing of the overall pace of the game.
What the Heat have to do to win
The Heat need to use the matchup issues they can force by playing small to their fullest advantage. If the Pacers are going to try to pound them inside, they must find a way to force turnovers and speed the game up.
Miami can accomplish this by doubling Hibbert in the post as the seven-footer’s passing touch has never been his strong suit, and because the Heat have the athleticism to recover from hard doubles.
The Heat can also punish Indiana by knocking down mid-range jumpers. The Pacers adhere to the popular analytics theory that the mid-range area is the worst spot on the floor to shoot from and, as such, have the defensive mentality to go underneath the screen when defending the pick-and-roll—opening up those looks.
LeBron James and Dwyane Wade need to take advantage of this and really make Indiana pay by sticking the jumpers that are given to them.
Marquee Matchup 1: LeBron James vs. Paul George
James and Paul George are the two best two-way players in basketball and, really, seeing these two duel is the biggest reason why this series is so juicy.
Both are oversized for the position they play (small forward), both are capable of guarding every position on the floor and both have the range and athleticism to score from almost every conceivable area of the court.
Between the two, James is the better player because of his offensive polish, but this matchup won’t be dominated by either one. This is a battle of two ultra-talented players with almost the exact same skill-set; each possibly being the only player in the world capable of guarding the other one-on-one.
Marquee Matchup 2: Chris Bosh vs. Roy Hibbert/David West
If Hibbert and, to a lesser extent, David West are going to pound Chris Bosh on the inside, then Miami’s versatile big man is going to have to draw the two out to the perimeter on the other end of the floor.
Hibbert was made to look pedestrian in the Pacers’ first-round series with the Atlanta Hawks because Pero Antic constantly drew him away from the basket with the threat of his three-point shooting. Bosh can do much the same, and even abuse him and West the way Paul Millsap did in the Atlanta series with his quickness advantage getting to the rim and his buttery-smooth mid-range jimmy.
The Pacers’ bigs did eventually figure it out against the Hawks, however, so an over-reliance on Bosh could also spell trouble for Miami.
Prediction
Despite all the problems they had early, the Pacers really came together in that Washington series and look as if they’re finally focused and can approach the same level of play they produced for much of the regular season.
With that said, however, Miami’s ultimately still the better team. The Heat have the best player in the world (in his prime) and their penchant for lollygagging until they really need to turn it on shouldn’t be an issue since James and Co. shouldn’t lack for motivation against their Eastern Conference rival. Heat in six.
Conference final previews: Pacers (1) vs. Heat (2) | Spurs (1) vs. Thunder (2)