Half-jokingly thought of by many fans as the “real” season, the NBA off-season is now fully underway.
Here’s a look at some of the biggest storylines to keep your eye on as the NBA’s hot stove starts to heat up.
Key off-season dates
Before we dive into specific storylines, it’s first important to understand how the NBA calendar is going to work.
Here’s a glance at the NBA’s key summer dates:
June 21: 2018 NBA Draft.
June 25: 2018 NBA Awards.
June 29: Last day for teams to make qualifying offers to players eligible for restricted free agency.
July 1: Free agency moratorium begins, meaning teams can begin negotiating with free agents.
July 2-17: 2018 NBA Summer League.
July 6: Moratorium period ends, meaning teams can officially sign players and complete trades.
July 13: Last day for teams to withdraw their qualifying offers to restricted free agents.
Everything begins with LeBron
Despite Charles Barkley’s protestations, the NBA’s free-agent business can’t really get started until everything regarding LeBron James’ decision gets sorted out.
James is unquestionably the biggest fish out there, and the power he wields is enough to keep an entire league waiting with bated breath.
This is particularly so because even if he decides to opt into his current deal and forego becoming an unrestricted free agent, the trade market is also a very viable scenario with James.
Given the magnitude of the decision in front of the four-time NBA MVP, there’s a chance that this year’s off-season could drag on as we await The King’s royal decree.
How do the 76ers move forward?
In the aftermath of what’s likely the story of the year in the NBA, the Philadelphia 76ers are without a general manager heading into the draft and face what many consider to be an important free agency period for the franchise.
With the talented and young core of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Dario Saric, the 76ers look primed to be a perennial power in the Eastern Conference for years to come, and they’re likely looking to accelerate their timeline this summer as the team will have enough salary cap space to absorb a max deal.
This means the Sixers could potentially add one of James, Kevin Durant or Paul George to what’s an already a scary squad in the East.
But in the aftermath of the Bryan Colangelo debacle, Philly is a team that appears to be in flux … again. It will be interesting to see how this story plays out over the summer.
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Huge summer for the Lakers
The Summer of 2018 belongs to the Los Angeles Lakers – if you’re a Lakers fan, that is.
It’s been well documented over the last two seasons that Los Angeles positioned itself to have room for two max contracts and has specifically targeted James and George.
Only time will tell if their dream scenario becomes reality, but what’s probably more interesting to think about is if the Lakers strike out on all targets. It won’t be pretty.
Summer of Fred
While the big stars dominate headlines in NBA free agency – for obvious reasons – it’s also important to remember teams can still find ways to improve by picking up key role players like the Toronto Raptors’ Fred VanVleet.
Having enjoyed a breakout season that saw him become a Sixth Man of the Year finalist, VanVleet is a player who will be in demand for teams looking to shore up their bench.
The 24-year-old is a restricted free agent but because the Raptors own his early Bird rights, VanVleet is in a territory known as the “Gilbert Arena Provision,” meaning any deal offered for him above the mid-level exception (estimated to be worth about $8.6 million) would be limited to the value of the mid-level exception in the first two seasons of the deal and then can rise afterwards.
Essentially, this translates to VanVleet likely signing a back-loaded deal worth a lot of money that Toronto, in all likelihood, won’t be able to match.
Keeping things golden in Oakland?
With three championships in the last four seasons, it’s undeniable the NBA is in the midst of a Golden State Warriors dynasty. If the Warriors want to keep the good times rolling, however, they’re going to have hand out a lot of money this summer.
Durant can, and likely will, opt out of his current deal with the Dubs, Klay Thompson’s contract expires at the end of next season and Draymond Green’s will run its course at the end of 2019-20.
All three are high priority for the Warriors, and while GM Bob Myers would like to get all his business done this summer, there’s a chance that will be more difficult than he first imagined.
In Durant’s case, while Myers said shortly after the Warriors swept the Cleveland Cavaliers that the two-time Finals MVP could have “whatever he wants,” he backtracked on those comments during Golden States’ championship parade.
For Thompson, there was a report in May that he was working on an extension with the Warriors, but early in June, Thompson’s father, Mychal, shot that down saying his son probably won’t sign an extension this summer.
Lastly, there’s Green, who will reportedly turn down an extension offer because should he earn an MVP, defensive player of the year or make an All-NBA team next season, he’ll be eligible for a “super-max” contract extension, something that’s possible considering he won defensive player of the year in 2017.
The Dubs dynasty may not be as secure as we all initially thought.
Can Spurs repair their relationship with Kawhi?
During the regular season, the apparent falling out between Kawhi Leonard and Gregg Popovich was one of the most talked-about stories, and it’s only continuing into the summer.
As the latest reports have surfaced, it appears as if this is a relationship that can’t be repaired and that Leonard would like to land with the Lakers.
This comes on the heels of a reportedly planned meeting between Popovich and Leonard that would’ve seen both men try to work through their differences and to potentially come to a decision on the “super-max” contract extension that Leonard is eligible for this off-season.
Something that may have helped help San Antonio in its pursuit to keep its best player is the fact GM R.C. Buford and the Spurs reportedly rebuffed a Boston Celtics trade offer for Leonard before the trade deadline and didn’t counter-offer.
That seems unlikely now.
Kyrie trade watch … again
The story of the NBA off-season in 2017 was Kyrie Irving forcing his way out of Cleveland and getting traded to the Celtics.
And now, he could be traded again, although not by his choice this time.
Speaking to the Boston media recently, Irving said that it doesn’t make sense for him to sign a contract extension with the Celtics this summer, and he wants to come back to talk shop with the team next summer, when he could become an unrestricted free agent.
In light of this, The Washington Post’s Tim Bontemps floated the idea of the Celtics trading Irving this summer, arguing that it doesn’t make a lot of economic sense for Boston to fork out huge money to retain Irving after next season.
So, as farfetched as it may sound to deal Irving, you can never say never when it comes to the NBA.
Big decisions for Rockets
Coming just one win away – and, really, more like 27 straight missed threes away – from knocking off the Warriors, the Houston Rockets don’t need to make much roster adjustment in order to reach that ultimate prize. That doesn’t mean this won’t be a tough summer of decisions for GM Daryl Morey, though.
The Rockets have two huge free agents who the team is definitely going to want to lock up in Chris Paul and, perhaps more importantly, Clint Capela.
As the president of the Players’ Association, it’s against Paul’s interests to take anything other than the max, something that isn’t that much of a problem in Houston’s plans.
Capela, on the other hand, could be problematic because he’ll also be chasing a max deal (which will be less than Paul’s because of service time), but that will be a gigantic leap in value for him as he was only making an average of $1.5 million per season before this summer.
And this situation only gets tougher for Houston when you factor in another important free agent in Trevor Ariza, as well as Ryan Anderson’s albatross deal that has handcuffed the Rockets’ flexibility.
Lastly, there’s always the outside chance the Rockets try to trade for James, and that opens up a whole new can of worms.
Regardless of how things shake out, Houston’s situation this summer is worth monitoring.
