Well, this is just depressing.
SAMPLE OKC FAN, JUNE 21, 2012: Wow, losing to Miami in the Finals sucks, but hey, we’re still improving! Kevin Durant, right? We’ll get ’em next year!
SAMPLE OKC FAN, OCT. 27, 2012: Hey, whoa, ouch. That James Harden trade stings. But Kevin Martin! Jeremy Lamb! A first rounder! Not a bad haul! Stupid collective bargaining agreement limits spending for small-market franchises, anyway. GO THUNDER!
SAMPLE OKC FAN, APR. 25, 2013: What? Russell Westbrook’s injured?
SAMPLE OKC FAN, May 15, 2013: We got bounced in the second round?!
SAMPLE OKC FAN, July 2, 2013: Kevin Martin’s leaving via free agency and our big draft pick is Steven Adams?!?!
SAMPLE OKC FAN, Oct. 1, 2013: [Vomiting and sobbing is audible as news of Russell Westbrook’s knee surgery plays in the background; it’s possible SAMPLE OKC FAN has been doing some drinking]
In little more than a year, the Thunder have gone from a young team still on the rise and yet already a perennial title contender to a top-heavy, capped-out squad in an increasingly competitive conference. Durant remains the second-best player in the world, but former NBA ironman Westbrook will miss at least a month to start the season while former Thunderite Harden will spend that time lighting up defences for the Houston Rockets.
It’s not that the Thunder are bad. Far from it. But barring a major in-season move, they just aren’t quite the team today that many (SAMPLE OKC FAN, included) hoped they’d be.
Additions
Steven Adams, Ryan Gomes
Departures
Kevin Martin, Ronnie Brewer
Not that Kevin Martin was the best player in the NBA last year or anything, but he shot 45 per cent from the field (42.6 per cent from three) and helped stretch defences while finishing fourth in Sixth Man voting. He also accounted for 47 per cent of the Thunder’s per-game bench scoring. They lost him and replaced him in the backcourt with … no one at all. That thrusts second-year guard Jeremy Lamb into a heavy scoring role off the bench, something he looked unready for as recently as Summer League when he shot 39.1 per cent from the field.
Adams is a long-armed seven-foot centre with upside from New Zealand (via Pittsburgh), who, considering the lack of talent in this year’s draft, offers decent value. Just maybe not quite what the team was hoping for when they wound up with the Raptors’ first rounder in the Harden trade.
Key Storylines
– The Harden trade will continue to hang over this team like an Oklahoma funnel cloud. The motivation for it made complete sense at the time—avoid the luxury tax while reloading with young talent. But unless Lamb makes a quantum leap and Adams shows immediate promise, people will continue to lump the trade in amongst the worst of all-time.
– Will the real Serge Ibaka please step up? One of the reasons OKC traded Harden was because they had already paid Serge Ibaka. Ibaka thanked the franchise for this honour by having a productive year (career-high 19.4 player efficiency rating), but there’s still room for improvement. He shoots fantastic percentages, but he took fewer than 10 shots per game in 2012–13. Can he up his usage this season without taking a hit in efficiency?
– If there was ever a year to win the first pick in an NBA fantasy draft, this is it—and you’re taking KD. Durant won’t play quite so much as he did in last year’s playoffs (when he averaged 31.8 points, 9.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists in 45.1 minutes after Westbrook went down), but he should come reasonably close while Westbrook rides the pine.
– Kendrick Perkins’ expiring contract and what they do with it. The big man no doubt helps account for the Thunder’s 102.6 defensive rating (fourth best in the league), but he continued regressing on the offensive end last season to the point that he’s rarely guarded anymore, allowing defenders to hedge even more in Durant’s direction. If the Thunder can package Perkins with a draft pick to bring back a more mobile and athletic finishing big (Marcin Gortat, perhaps?) and some scoring help on the wing, then the team’s outlook changes drastically for the better.
Breakout Player
Reggie Jackson. Upside, meet opportunity. Starting the young, six-foot-three PG in Westbrook’s spot for a few weeks could actually help the Thunder in the long run if it gets him more accustomed to NBA defences. Plus, for what it’s worth, Jackson led the Orlando Summer League in scoring with 19.5 points in only 23.5 minutes per.
Scale of Decency
Compared to the Thunder of the last couple of seasons, half-decent at best. But compared to the rest of the league? Still mad decent. This is the NBA, where smaller rotations mean one player can make more of an impact on his team than in any other league on the planet. The Thunder have Durant, and as long as he’s producing they’ll get their wins. Add him to a soon-to-be-recovered Westbrook and one of the league’s stingiest defences, and you’ve got an at-worst five seed out west.
