Two years ago in the 2012 Western Conference final, the San Antonio Spurs were stunned by the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder, losing four straight games after taking the first two.
In that series, OKC’s individual talent and athleticism resoundingly beat the Spurs’ intricate offensive and defensive system. Fast-forward to 2013-14 and despite San Antonio finishing with the league’s best regular-season record, it still looked as if the Thunder’s talent trumps Gregg Popovich’s system in a big way—OKC took the season series 4-0.
With the exception of Harden’s departure from OKC and Steven Adams’ arrival, the major players remain the same from that West final. Injury concerns have popped up on both sides, with Tony Parker fighting a hamstring issue that has him listed as day-to-day and Serge Ibaka out for the remainder of the playoffs with a left calf injury.
The Ibaka situation is very unfortunate because this series just won’t be the same without him.
No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder
111.1 (2) OffRtg 107.9 (7)
101.2 (3) DefRtg 102.8 (5)
49.3% (1) FG% 45.3% (6)
38.8% (1) 3P% 33.2% (13)
Leaders
Tony Parker, 19.3 (20) PPG Kevin Durant, 31.4 (1)
Tim Duncan, 8.3 (16) RPG Durant, 9.5 (8)
Parker, 4.9 (12) APG Russell Westbrook, 8.4 (3)
Duncan, 21.40 (21) PER Durant, 29.90 (1)
Note: Playoff rankings in brackets
What the Spurs have to do to win
Even if Parker is unable to go, from a pure basketball perspective, the Spurs are the better team. They move the ball with greater crispness and intelligence, shoot a higher percentage, play better team defence and have a much deeper bench.
San Antonio needs to maximize all of these things and not get caught up in individual matchups. As a collective, the Spurs trump the Thunder in every facet of the game. If they stick to their system and execute accordingly, they’ll find themselves in the Finals for the second-straight year.
What the Thunder have to do to win
As great as the Spurs’ are collectively, the Thunder are the more talented team, featuring the league MVP Kevin Durant and a borderline top-five player in Russell Westbrook.
Basketball’s a funny game in that individual talent and athleticism can completely blow away an opposing team’s effort, and the Thunder have proven they can do just that thanks to Durant and Westbrook. For the playoffs, Durant is averaging 31.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while shooting 45.3 percent from the field. Westbrook, for his part, is doing something only the great Oscar Robertson has ever accomplished over an entire post-season, averaging 27.2 points, 8.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game.
And while the Spurs’ defence is most formidable, no one on San Antonio’s roster can keep Westbrook from getting into the paint, or stop Durant putting up decent looks pretty much at will. Covering pick-and-rolls or pick-and-pops involving either of the two is a nightmare scenario for the Spurs because of the disparity in talent and athleticism. So while a steady dose of Durant and Westbrook seems pretty obvious, it’s also the reason why the Spurs just can’t seem to beat the Thunder.
Marquee Matchup 1: Kevin Durant vs. Kawhi Leonard/Boris Diaw
No one on San Antonio can actually stop Durant, but Kawhi Leonard and Boris Diaw can certainly make an effort to disrupt him.
Leonard is the Spurs’ only truly exceptional athlete and has the lateral quickness, length and strength to at least bother Durant, while Diaw is Popovich’s jack-of-all-trades defender and has done a good job containing the likes of Dirk Nowitzki and LaMarcus Aldridge of late, and even LeBron James during last year’s Finals.
With that said, Durant’s still likely to average 30-plus per game, so where the San Antonio pair really has to make him pay is on the defensive end by posting him up and just trying to make him work. Every detail really does matter when dealing with a weapon of Durant’s level.
Marquee Matchup 2: Russell Westbrook vs. Tony Parker
It hinges on Parker being 100 percent, but it’s a sexy matchup on paper.
Parker is undoubtedly the Spurs’ best player, and his uncanny ability to get into the paint and finish in traffic thanks to his guile and dazzling footwork is a great foil to the absolute athletic dominance Westbrook has brought to the point guard position.
In years past, Parker hasn’t fared too well trying to keep Westbrook in front of him—but then again, it’s quite possible that no one in basketball can keep up with the OKC guard. On the flip side, while Point Godzilla definitely has the physical tools needed to shut down Parker, the Frenchman’s craftiness can frustrate Westbrook, who is always a risk to pick up a technical because of the emotion he plays with.
Prediction
The Spurs are a great team, genuinely better than the Thunder in every way, except for the one that really matters in basketball—talent. The NBA has been ruled by athleticism for a long time now and with no one that can physically match the Thunder’s stars, San Antonio will fall short. Thunder in six
Conference final previews: Pacers (1) vs. Heat (2) | Spurs (1) vs. Thunder (2)