In our “Run Raptors Run” post, we highlighted a simple, yet insightful method of a team’s success.
Reminder: What are the Four Factors?
The Four Factors are derivatives of the box score and concluded teams were good or bad based on four main factors:
1. Shooting percentage from the field;
2. Getting offensive rebounds;
3. Committing turnovers; and
4. Going to the foul line often and making those shots.
So what are the good teams doing well and the poor teams not?
Our first chart shows the offence’s Four Factors broken down for the top five (San Antonio, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers, Miami and Memphis) and bottom five (Charlotte, Orlando, Washington, Cleveland and Phoenix) teams.
What is immediately clear is difference in both effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) and free-throws-to-field-goal-attempt ratio. On the latter, NBA teams shoot 75 per cent from the line — obviously the most effective shot. The turnover percentages are quite similar, while the offensive-rebound rate is lower among the best teams.
What about the defensive side of the court?
The top teams force more turnovers as well as force tougher shots. They also rebound opponent’s misses better, allowing for fewer second-chance points.
Most improved team so far this year?
The Brooklyn Nets have moved up 16 spots since last year, for obvious reasons.
The team’s pace has slowed while its offensive rating has increased a very significant four points — the third-largest increase in the league. Meanwhile, they have been able to decrease their defensive rating by 3.3 points at the same time.
Biggest drop?
The Philadelphia 76ers have dropped 19 spots from a year ago. With the loss of Andre Igoudala (and with the incoming Andrew Bynum injured) the team’s defensive rating has plummeted 5.3 points. The most glaring difference among the Four Factors is defensive-effective-field-goal percentage, which has risen by 2.8 per cent.
What about the Toronto Raptors?
The Raptors have moved up five spots versus last year. The increase is largely driven by offensive improvements. Offensive rating has increased five points (interesting given how many games Andrea Bargnani has missed). The team is turning the ball over much less (something to watch carefully in the absence of Jose Calderon) and shooting the ball better: effective-field-goal percentage is up by 1.4 per cent.
However, the team has slipped defensively. Defensive rating is up 3.6 points and the team is allowing a much higher effective-field-goal percentage. Meanwhile, they are not rebounding as well at the defensive end either.
MVP to date
I was one of two on the Sportsnet team that chose Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant as the MVP of the season so far. Certainly it’s hard to argue against the popular pick of Miami Heat star LeBron James (who received the other seven of nine votes).
A few points in our defense for Kevin Durant:
* The Thunder have the second-best record in the league.
* He is the NBA’s leading scorer.
* He has the highest true shooting percentage of all players (over 500 minutes played).
* He has the second-highest WS/48 (.305 versus James’ .307).
* He has the second-highest offensive rating (to Chris Paul).
* On/off court offense (points per 100 possessions): 116.4 on versus 105.6 off (+10.8).
We also did the following screen: number of players in the history of the NBA with >51% FG%, >42% 3pt FG% and >90% FT%.
The answer:
Only four. (See basketball-reference.com.)
Highest true-shooting percentage, rebounds and WS/48 of those players?
Kevin Durant.
Of course, it’s always hard to make a compelling argument against James. He does lead in many categories and can guard multiple positions on defense — and guard them well.