The Toronto Raptors (12-7) are approaching the quarter-mark of their season. Their home date against Charlotte Wednesday is the 20th game of the season, the point at which coaches and executives look at their team and begin to trust what the data, their record and what their eyes tell them about their strengths and weaknesses.
With a couple of days off, it provides an opportunity for us to assess as well and so we provide our quarter-mark report card. It means nothing, but is kind of fun. The grades reflect how well a player is performing per their role. DeMar DeRozan is an all-NBA player, an elite scorer and paid (virtually) max money, his grade reflects how well he has performed compared to other superstars and all-stars. Jakob Poeltl is a part-time player looking to find his footing in his second NBA season. The expectations are different and so their grades will reflect their standings relative to my – admittedly subjective – expectations.
DeMar DeRozan: B+
Could have easily been an A or A- if not for his strange mini slump the past three games when he followed up his Player of the Week award by averaging 11 points on 38 per cent shooting, including his disappearing act in the second half against the New York Knicks and his general weirdness in the first half against the Pacers.
Apart from that it’s hard not be impressed by a guy who comes back from being named a third-team All NBA player and figures out how to thrive – an uptick in shooting percentage and assist totals headed for career-highs — even as his touches drop by about 10 per cent. The playmaking is still a work in progress at times – his determination to take the last shot(s) against Golden State and Boston jump out. But for a guy counted on to score like DeRozan is, his growing comfort in getting off the ball (more) quickly is admirable. His defensive effort and technique remain spotty. Fix that and it would go miles to getting DeRozan more of the league-wide respect he deserves.
Kyle Lowry: B (with a bullet)
Lowry’s first nine games were a bit of a write-off, otherwise this grade would be higher. It was strange seeing him so obviously flummoxed by the Raptors’ new offensive approach, but I guess having your frontcourt touches drop from 70.3 per game last year – tied with LeBron James – to 29.3 this year (former Raptor DeMarre Carroll is at 29.1) will do that. That he got off to an identically slow start a year ago didn’t seem to offer any comfort.
The last 10 games, however, Lowry has been fantastic. When dialled in, few are better from deep and he’s been in one of those zones, shooting 43.6 per cent on nearly eight attempts a game. His rebounding – already historically good for a guard his size – is heading for a career-best mark, which shouldn’t happen in the season you’re about to turn 32, but in the first year of his three-year, $90-million deal, Lowry is showing no signs of slowing.
Jonas Valanciunas: C
You have to feel for Valanciunas. After an impressive training camp and a dominant opening night performance, he rolled his ankle and missed four games. That opened the door for a cast of big men clawing for his minutes.
In the time he gets, he remains as productive as ever – Hassan Whiteside of the Miami Heat is the only other player in the NBA who has averaged at least 12 points, nine rebounds and one block while shooting better than 56 per cent from the floor over the past four seasons in less than 30 minutes of playing time. This year he’s averaging 18.2 points, 12.5 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per 36 minutes, but his 20.5 minutes a game are on pace for a career-low.
As the Raptors strive to play faster, Valanciunas’s weaknesses – end-to-end speed, ability to help on pick-and-rolls while still getting back to the paint to protect the rim, and decision-making (his assists are up marginally, but his turnover totals are up even more) – seem magnified. He’s still good at what he’s always done well, but more and more it seems like that is not enough.
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Serge Ibaka: C
Ibaka’s problems are with perception. When he was acquired by Raptors president Masai Ujiri it was hard to not envision the high-motor version that averaged eight rebounds and nearly three blocks a game in his peak years with OKC. This season we’re seeing a more mature player whose motor is on cruise more than you would like for $20 million a year. He shoots it well – before a recent 1-for-14 slump he was shooting 40 per cent from three on nearly five attempts a game — but his anemic rebounding numbers (7.3 per 36) and general lack of ball skills (twice as many turnovers as assists) are more glaring when his three clangs.
He’s not the answer at power forward alongside Valanciunas, – they have a negative net rating as a pairing — while at centre he offers more mobility and spacing, giving Toronto a very healthy +12.8 per 100 possessions. But having both Ibaka and Valanciunas on the same roster for a combined $37-million a season is redundant.
Norm Powell: C
With the promotion to the starting lineup, there was hope Powell would be the Raptors’ breakout player and he would more frequently look like Tony Allen with three-point range. We’re still waiting.
He started the season in a horrendous shooting slump – after opening night he shot just 27 per cent from three over his next 10 games – but brought it defensively, to his credit. Curbing his tendency to force the action offensively remains a work in progress, but his shooting seems to be coming around. With OG Anunoby emerging as an option as a starter at small forward, Powell may be headed back to the bench, where he might be best suited in any case.
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OG Anunoby: B+:
The temptation is to go much higher simply because the organization seemed emphatic that he wouldn’t even returning to the lineup until about this time of the year, if not later, as he recovered from ACL surgery in January. In that context he’s wildly exceeded expectations. As it is, Anunoby has been outstanding in flashes.
His defence of James Harden in the Raptors’ gritty win over the Houston Rockets is his signature game thus far. That he’s showing signs of being both a ball-hawking defender and a reliable perimeter shooter who can make the next pass without turning it over are all great signs for any rookie, let alone one that is coming off a major injury. It will be interesting to see if his offence diversifies a little bit as the season goes along and his explosiveness returns. He should be more active as a rebounder as well.
Delon Wright: B+
The best news about Wright is that it appears his right shoulder – already surgically repaired once – won’t require a second surgery after he dislocated it against the New Orleans Pelicans two weeks ago. The injury interrupted a very promising start by a very intriguing player.
He needs to become a more reliable shooter, as he’s firing at 28.6 per cent from three on the year, but was showing signs of improvement before he got hurt. He’s otherwise a great finisher, shooting an amazing 70.2 per cent on two-point field goals, which is the best among guards league-wide by miles so far this season. He’s very handsy, very poised and offers the ideal complement alongside Lowry in small-ball lineups. As long as his shoulder doesn’t become a chronic issue, he projects to be a key rotation piece this year and for many to come.
Pascal Siakam: A-
The Raptors’ breakout player so far this season, in part because of the way he forced his way into a key role after spending the first three games of the season playing garbage time. In his first start – facilitated by injuries to Valanciunas and Ibaka — he finished with a career-high 20 points on the road at Golden State.
His energy in transition, his ability to get his hands in the passing lanes and his vastly improved ability to make smart plays for others on offence – per Basketball Reference he’s assisted on 12.9 of his teammates’ field goals when he’s on the floor compared with 2.9 per cent last year – shows a player growing by leaps and bounds. Can he improve his three-point shooting? He’s at 23.1 per cent, which will be a limiting factor long term. Fix that and he has the potential to be a high-end role player and perhaps a starter sooner rather than later.
Jakob Poeltl: A-
More than anyone, Poeltl seems to be the victim of the Raptors crowded frontcourt, and it’s a mystery why his minutes continue to fluctuate. He’s averaging 15.2 points, 11 rebounds and an impressive 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes and his 5.1 offensive rebounds per 36 trail only Detroit’s Andre Drummond. Yet he’s averaging only 15 minutes a game and until a 19-minute stint in Saturday’s blowout over Atlanta had averaged only 11 minutes in the previous 10 games.
Defensively he has the mobility to string out ball handlers in pick-and-roll coverage and still protect the rim; he runs the floor well and offensively he can catch and finish at a high level. The only red flag at this point is his free-throw shooting which is 46.8 per cent and needs to get better if he wants to be a reliable late-game option. Dwane Casey needs to find him 20 minutes a night.
Lucas Nogueira: C+
The reason for Poeltl’s minutes fluctuation is the big Brazilian enigma, who is second on the Raptors in true shooting percentage and averages 1.8 steals and 3.7 blocks per 36 minutes. He also has the Raptors’ best defensive rating (98) and is tied with Anunoby for best net rating (+19).
At his best, he’s a low-usage monster who can win a game for you (17 points, nine rebounds, five blocks and two steals on eight shots in 30 minutes against Portland) but too often he picks up a few sloppy fouls early and is a complete no-show. On one hand the risk is in giving up on him too soon; on the other it’s that keeping him around stunts the growth of someone like Poeltl. Time to bet on Poeltl.
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C.J. Miles: B+
As advertised. He was hired to stretch defences with his expert trigger from deep and has done exactly that, shooting 41.4 per cent from three while leading the NBA in three-point attempts per 100 possessions at 16.3. He’s also shooting a greater variety of threes as only 15 per cent of his attempts have come from the corner, compared with 31 per cent last season with the Pacers.
He plays defence reasonably well and can make some plays off the dribble when needed. The expectation is that his minutes will increase from the 19.3 he’s getting now, and they should.
Fred VanVleet: B
VanVleet’s been thrust into a bigger role with Wright’s injury and has done very well – chipping in with 9.2 points, 3.5 assists and a steal in 21 minutes of playing time while shooting 41 per cent from three. That VanVleet has proven himself an adequate NBA point guard is full credit to him given he came into the league undrafted after four years of college and lacks the length or explosiveness that the position generally requires. He struggled mightily to finish at the rim early in the season but has shown improvement recently. He’s gained Lowry’s trust – not to mention Casey’s – and it shows when they play together in the second unit.
Dwane Casey: B+
Casey was challenged with modernizing the Raptors’ offence without significantly overhauling their core. Toronto is playing faster, shooting more threes and passing the ball more than in any of Casey’s seven years at the helm. He’s also done a good job trimming Lowry and DeRozan’s minutes and navigating some injuries to key roster pieces. It’s hard to criticize him for keeping the Raptors’ rotation so sprawling given that it’s paid off more often than not and no one has played their way out of it yet.
For all the positives, it’s a bit concerning that the Raptors have come up short in some very winnable games against some quality opponents. They have more head-scratching losses than they do quality wins. The Raptors coughed up late leads against San Antonio and Golden State; came up flat against the John Wall-less Wizards at home and frittered away healthy double-digit leads in disastrous third quarters against the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers on the road. Win any three of those games and Casey gets an ‘A’ for having his club in second place in the East. Win four of the five and the Raptors have the best record in the NBA and Casey is getting early Coach of the Year talk.
Masai Ujiri: A-
The Raptors have one of the best young benches in the NBA, which is a credit to the franchise’s commitment to patient player development and ability to find players outside the lottery and beyond. The progress of Anunoby, Wright, Powell, Siakam and VanVleet speak to some excellent talent evaluation. It looks like Miles will be $25 million well spent and walking away from incumbent free agents Patrick Patterson and P.J. Tucker were also prudent choices.
If there is a criticism, it would be in being more generous than the market likely required in signing Lowry and Ibaka to contracts paying $30 million and $20 million, respectively, but they are on relatively short-term deals so the back end shouldn’t be too onerous.
