The Toronto Raptors are hitting the three-quarter mark of their NBA season having just completed their best February ever. The Raptors went 9-2 with the second-best point differential in a month in NBA history.
With a 43-17 record and just 22 games to go, Toronto has the NBA’s third-best record and second-best point differential. Not only are they winning — they are dominating. The Raptors have won six of their last 10 games by 20 points or more.
Given how well they’ve played and how deep they are, I’d be hard pressed to give any of their pupils anything but top marks. Do note, though, for this exercise the grades are based on the execution of roles in relation to expectations — not solely production.
With just six weeks left in the season, here’s a complete report card of the East’s top team.
Dwane Casey: A+
Remember when people thought Dwane Casey was a lame-duck coach? Remember when the “cultural reset” Masai Ujiri was calling for meant a reset in the voice in the locker room? Well, Casey has, once again, quieted all the haters and outside noise. He’s managed to develop the Raptors’ future depth while contending in the present. And he’s done it while having to change the way they play even though their past systems were successful in the regular season.
A push toward more offensive pace and space has the team now taking upwards of 69 percent of the Raptors shots at the rim or from three-point land. That number was just 59 percent last season. Consequently, Toronto is one of only two teams sitting in the top five in both offensive and defensive rating — the other is the defending-champion Golden State Warriors.
Casey is far and away the most deserving for the NBA’s coach of the year honour. Sometimes we forget that coaches, like players, are are ever improving and evolving. Casey has worked, communicated and innovated his way to becoming one of the NBA’s elite leaders.
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Kyle Lowry: B+
The cultural reset was toughest on Kyle Lowry as he struggled out of the gate and admitted he wasn’t as comfortable finding his rhythm without the ball in his hands. But Lowry bought in and stuck with the plan, and not only did he regain his all-star-level form, he has become a great mentor to Delon Wright and Fred VanVleet.
The success of his back-up point guards is directly correlated to the amount of time and effort Lowry has spent with them in and away from the team facility. Their emergence has benefited Lowry as he went from averaging the most minutes of his career last season (37.4) to the fewest minutes of his career since 2012–13 (32.1).
Even in limited minutes the analytics still love his game as Lowry’s 3.6 value over replacement player (VORP) indicates. He’s still the most well-rounded point guard in the East, and he’s in position to be healthy enough to express that in the post-season.
DeMar DeRozan: A+
DeMar DeRozan has proven once again that the last thing you want to do is to doubt him. Every year when it seems he’s maxed out his talents, he adds something to his game — this year it’s been a three-point shot and greater comfort as a facilitator. And despite taking three fewer shots per game this season, DeRozan’s still impacting the game with a PER up to 22.0 — well above his career mark of 17.7.
It’s been a difficult year for DeRozan off the court dealing with family issues, but on the court the NBA all-star starter has never been better. DeRozan is putting up another all-NBA campaign.
Serge Ibaka: B+
Put me in the camp that thinks the Serge Ibaka trade and contract extension was money and prospect capital well spent. Ibaka doesn’t get as much press as his teammates, but he is intrinsic to its success. Ibaka ranks third on the team in scoring, second in rebounding and is one of the team’s few consistent three-point shooters, connecting at 35-plus percent from beyond the arc. His paint presence and 1.4 blocks per game are also big reasons why the Raptors have been so stout defensively.
Playing his best basketball when Toronto has had extended rest, Ibaka will likely be even more impactful when the frequency of games slows down in the playoffs. He would need to be a better passer to get an A, but by and large he has contributed a ton to the Raptors’ success.
OG Anunoby: B-
OG Annonby shows his potential in flashes almost as often as he shows his rookie warts, which is why it is hard to accurately evaluate him. After a knee injury was supposed to sideline him for half of the season Anunoby has started all but 12 games, and that alone is a small victory. He also recently held Giannis Antetokounmpo to four points and 1-4 shooting when he guarded him during Milwaukee’s last trip to Toronto, and has proven willing to accept the challenge of guarding the NBA’s premier scorers.
At the same time, after a hot start his three-point shooting has plummeted to under 30 percent. He’s also 39th in rookie scoring, which isn’t something to brag about.
He may have hit the rookie wall and as Michael Grange detailed the other day he may not be the right fit for the starting line-up right now. But he certainly is the long-term answer for Toronto at the three position.
Jonas Valanciunas: A-
No Raptor has improved more than Jonas Valanciunas. He’s added a three-point shot (45.7 percent), something that few thought was a likely possibility when Casey talked about it in the past. His .628 true shooting percentage and his .588 effective field goal percentage are among the best in the NBA. He’s also come a long way guarding the dreaded one-five pick and roll. Once maligned as a defensive liability, his 102.5 defensive rating is good enough to place him ninth in the league.
Don’t expect to hear the Lithuanian’s name in trade rumours any time soon. And don’t be surprised if Valanciunas continues to be on the court to close games in the playoffs.
Fred VanVleet: A
Of the NBA’s 95 five-man line-up combinations that have played at least 100 minutes, the best is the Raptors’ second unit. The on-court success of that group has a lot to do with Fred VanVleet. The bench mob’s floor general has done a great job of pushing the ball this season, helping the Raptors play at the 12th-fastest pace in the league — last year they were 24th.
VanVleet also forms a nice one-two punch with Lowry in two-point guard lineups. On defence, he takes the primary ball handler and allows Lowry to rest. Then on offence, Lowry can get shots off the ball and not have to worry about getting everyone involved.
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Delon Wright: A
Delon Wright’s stats are up in every major category, but his consistent shooting is really the story. Wright is shooting 46.9 percent from the floor, 36.9 from three and 86.9 from the line for an effective field goal percentage of 53.1.
Defensively his length and athleticism allows him to guard twos and threes, and gives Casey the luxury of playing ultra-small lineups. A three-point guard lineup with Wright, Lowry and VanVleet is something we may continue to see in spurts, and it is only possible because Wright can rebound and protect the rim like a player far bigger than his six-foot-five frame.
C.J. Miles: B-
The Raptors’ second unit has been dominant despite the fact that four players in the group are 25 or younger and none of them has more than three seasons of NBA experience. The guy who has more experience than the group combined is C.J. Miles.
Miles has had some cold spells and struggled with nagging injuries at times, but his real value has been as a calming influence in the second unit, which is why he’s affectionately known as the “bench dad.” His on-court value as been providing some badly needed deep shooting gravity as Miles puts up six three pointers a game and connects on just under 40 percent.
Pascal Siakam: A+
Pascal Siakam started the season just outside Casey’s 10-man rotation. He’s ending it as Casey’s most impactful bench piece. Siakam’s 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio has shown he can be trusted to take care of the ball as he becomes more of a point forward, initiating the Raptors’ offence at the top of the circle. Siakam is fifth on the team in each rebounding, steals and assists, and plays only 20 minutes a night.
A defensive menace, he often finishes games when the Raptors need stops. Siakam’s defensive box plus minus is 2.5, good enough for 12th in the league, and his 103.5 defensive rating is second on the team. Offensively he’s improved his dribbling, adding a crafty left hand that allows him to finish better at the rim. And at least once a night he beats an opposing big down the floor for a lob dunk or putback solely by using his speed and hustle to outwork his opponent.
Jakob Poeltl: B
Jakob Poeltl’s improvement has been more subtle but needed nonetheless. His ball handling is vastly improved even from the first few months of the season. His dribble hand-off and fake hand-off is Draymond Green-esque.
As the only lottery pick in the Masai Ujiri era, Poeltl is less of a surprise than some of his late-draft and undrafted teammates. His box-score stats are underwhelming, but all you need to know is that his name appears in eight of the Raptors’ top 11 five-man lineups.
Norman Powell: D
It’s been a rough year for Norman Powell — so rough that Casey recently said “I feel for Norman Powell.” After receiving a contract extension and being given the starting small forward job on opening night, Powell struggled to live up to the increased expectations and then was sidelined with a hip injury.
Powell went from one of the best three-point shooters in the NBA playoffs last year to shooting 29 percent from three this year. And as a “three and D” player, it is hard to justify keeping him on the court when he isn’t hitting corner threes.
It hasn’t been all bad, however, and Powell is far from unplayable. He’s a part of two of the Raptors’ top four units, and Casey has still been trying to sneak him in to second-quarter action so that he has opportunity to get his grove back. Anunonby’s ankle injury could open up minutes for Powell to get back into the coach’s rotation before the post-season.
Lucas Nogueira: N/A
He’s played only 318 minutes, most of which have come in garbage time. Although Poeltl has beat him out as the backup big, he’s been a good teammate and remained positive, which isn’t surprising to anyone who has met the affable Brazilian.
