CFP Semifinal Preview: Can Michigan, Ohio St. set up all-Big Ten National Championship?

Three teams who are very familiar with the College Football Playoff secured their places in the final committee rankings once again while one new contender looks to fight for the title of the best program in college football.

Georgia, the reigning national champions, Michigan and Ohio State all are making at least their second appearance in the semifinals, while TCU makes their first trip after going 12-0 under first year head coach Sonny Dykes.

The Dawgs from the south will face off against the Buckeyes in the Peach Bowl, while the Wolverines take on the Horned Frogs in the Fiesta Bowl.

Here is a look at the two semifinal matchups of the College Football Playoff.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State

Game info: Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl, Dec. 31, 8:00p.m ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA.

History: This is only the second time that Georgia and Ohio State will meet in the history of the two programs, with Georgia beating the Buckeyes 21-14 in the 1993 Florida Citrus Bowl.

Georgia’s season: No team has gone back-to-back in the playoff era, and the last team to do it even in the BCS era was fellow SEC powerhouse Alabama in 2011 and 2012.

The Bulldogs have had one of the most convincing seasons of being the No. 1 team in the country, staying perfect all year and only coming close to scratching that record just once as they snuck away with a 26-22 win against Missouri in October.

Even when faced with a matchup against No. 1 Tennessee when Georgia was ranked No. 2, they handled the Volunteers with ease winning 27-13 while scoring 24 of those points in the first half.

Georgia’s receiving corps doesn’t quite match up to Ohio State’s, but it doesn’t have to when Brock Bowers is dominating through the air as a tight end with 726 yards and six touchdowns this season.

Another tight end option the Bulldogs have been going to is 6-foot-7, 270-pound Darnell Washington, who has a frame that is hard to bring down and recorded 417 yards and two touchdowns this year.

Ladd McConkey was the team’s top wide receiver with 675 yards for five touchdowns this season, but the Bulldogs have found their success on the ground with Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards both rushing for over 680 yards this year.

McIntosh tallied 709 yards for 10 touchdowns this season while Edwards tallied 681 yards for seven touchdowns and Kendall Milton rushed for 533 yards and six touchdowns of his own.

Stetson Bennett returned under centre for the Bulldogs this year, throwing for 3,425 yards, 20 touchdowns and six interceptions while running in another seven scores for 184 yards on the ground. Georgia have not once turned the ball over in the red zone this season and score 97.2 per cent inside the 20-yard line, ranking No. 1 nationally.

Georgia’s key here is their defence, which ranks third nationally in third-down defence, allowing opponents to convert only 26.7 per cent of the time. Opponents have scored touchdowns on only 32.1 per cent of red zone trips against Georgia this season, which ranks No. 1 in the nation.

Ohio State’s season: The Buckeyes have had a similar season story over the past two years – one that has differed from the previous decade – and that is how they simply cannot beat Michigan.

A program that once went undefeated against the Wolverines between 2012 and 2019 now has lost to their rivals in consecutive years and watched Jim Harbaugh’s team win consecutive Big Ten titles and make back-to-back trips to the College Football Playoff.

After last season the Buckeyes parted ways with defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs and spent a pretty penny getting Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State to revamp their defence, but the secondary was still an issue for much of the season, with schools like Penn State exposing them through the air.

Of course Ohio State has some of the best offensive tools in the country, with Marvin Harrison Jr. already making a name for himself as one of the best wideouts in the country as a sophomore. Of course, his father is part of one of the greatest quarterback-receiver duos in NFL history, but the stats for Harrison Jr. speak for themselves.

1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns on the season don’t tell the story of Harrison Jr.’s athleticism, his precision route running or ability to make contested catches that seem impossible through double coverage. While Jaxon Smith-Njigba dealt with injuries, despite having a breakout year in the season prior leading the Power Five in receiving yards, Emeka Egbuka has stepped up as another electric pass catcher for the Buckeyes tallying 1,039 yards and nine touchdowns of his own.

None of it would be possible without quarterback C.J. Stroud, who, despite the critics second-guessing his abilities under centre, still tallied 3,340 yards for 37 touchdowns and six interceptions this year.

The Buckeyes have a triple-threat ground game with Miyan Williams leading the charge with 817 yards and 13 touchdowns, TreVeyon Henderson adding 571 yards for six touchdowns, and the latest discovery of Dalla Hayden for 510 yards and five touchdowns.

Defensively the Buckeyes are still loaded with talent – linebackers Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers have been the heroes in multiple games this season, and safeties Lathan Ransom and Ronnie Hickman have combined for over 100 tackles.

Larry Johnson’s recruiting pitch has always included Nick and Joey Bosa and Chase Young, but now defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau, who has recorded 28 tackles, 3.5 sacks and two interceptions, can be included.

The matchup: If Ohio State’s secondary doesn’t make the same sloppy mistakes they saw in the back half of the season, they do have a good chance of putting up a fight against this Georgia team. There are no real receiving threats, and Jim Knowles has made it his mission to just down tight ends all season like Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer and Iowa’s Sam LaPorta.

As for Georgia, they can take advantage of a Buckeyes defence that has allowed touchdowns on 60.9 per cent of their opponents' red zone trips, as long as Stetson Bennett can get it down field and rely on their run game to take advantage once there.

No one has really had an answer for Ohio State’s passing game, and it’s hard to when there are multiple players to watch for through the air – the Buckeyes have a tight end threat of their own in Cade Stover who has tallied five touchdowns this year – and all eyes will rightfully be on Harrison Jr.

The Bulldogs will blitz Stroud and put pressure on him often, forcing the signal caller to make uncomfortable throws that have resulted in three-and-outs and near interceptions multiple times this season.

The spread for this game is less than a score for a reason, as Georgia’s top defence and Ohio State’s top offence will dictate how this game goes, while the other sides of the ball that haven’t been as potent this season need to step up to the plate.

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 TCU

Game info: Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 31, 4:00p.m ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.

History: This is the first ever meeting between these two programs, and TCU’s first ever appearance in the college football playoff.

Michigan’s season: With a 13-0 season in the books for Jim Harbaugh, who at one point in time looked like he could have left the Michigan program at any time due to consecutive underwhelming seasons, the former quarterback has now reached the heights he has always been capable of as their head coach.

Back-to-back wins over Ohio State means that the Big Ten runs through Ann Arbor for the time being, and the Purdue Boilermakers were absolutely no match for the Wolverines in the Big Ten title game.

Michigan had to take on the Bulldogs last year in the semifinal, and barely put up a double-digit score in a 34-11 loss. But this Wolverines team has scored fewer than 27 points in a game just once this season, with one of the best running backs in the country, solid linebackers and a quarterback who looks to break the curse of Michigan’s last few years under centre.

Losing Blake Corum is a blow to the Wolverines as the running back tallied 1,463 yards and 18 touchdowns this season before suffering a knee injury against Illinois and aggravating it against Ohio State which led to needing knee surgery.

Donovan Edwards is another option the Wolverines have on the ground, tallying 872 yards for seven touchdowns, but their real threat will be in their passing game with Corum still set to sit out.

Ronnie Bell led all receivers with 754 yards and three touchdowns while Cornelius Johnson is one to watch when converting in the red zone with 469 yards and six touchdowns on the season.

And of course, J.J. McCarthy, who is still just a sophomore, threw for 2,376 yards, 20 touchdowns and just three interceptions this season, and averaged 10.3 yards per attempt and threw six touchdowns against the Buckeyes and the Boilermakers.

The Wolverines have had only one close game this season – a 19-17 win over Illinois – and beat Ohio State and Purdue by a combined 43 points. Their offensive efficiency will rely on the ground game as TCU has allowed at least 200 yards on the ground in two of their last three regular season games.

TCU’s season: In his first year as head coach of the Horned Frogs, Sonny Dykes managed to go a perfect 12-0, the first Big 12 team to do so since Texas in 2009, but lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game by three points in overtime, 31-28.

Max Duggan was a Heisman finalist for a reason, throwing for 3,321 yards, leading the Big 12 in passing touchdowns with 30 and throwing just four interceptions.

TCU also has an array of receiving talent with the likes of Quentin Johnston, Taye Barber, Derius Davis and Savion Williams. Unlike a lot of other teams with one or two top receivers, the Horned Frogs have five players with four or more touchdowns through the air.

Johnston led the team with 53 receptions for 903 yards and five touchdowns while Williams added 392 yards and four touchdowns.

Slot receivers Barber and Davis have speed that will threaten the Wolverines, with Barber catching four touchdowns and tallying 593 yards while Davis added 418 yards and five touchdowns.

The Wolverines will need to make Duggan and company work for it on the ground, though Kendre Miller was fourth in the Big 12 with 1,342 yards and 17 rushing touchdowns and Duggan himself added six touchdowns on the ground rushing for 404 yards.

TCU’s defence is a 3-3-5 scheme that is mainly built to stop high-flying Air Raid offences that are seen prominently in the Big 12, a conference that is not necessarily known for it’s defence, but Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson has caught three interceptions this season and between him and Josh Newton less than 38 per cent of targets thrown their way were caught.

This season TCU has managed to win five games where they trailed in the second half, and will be relying heavily on Duggan and scoring flurries to be able to beat the Wolverines, but will need to stop them on the ground first – but as seen in how they stop Texas’ Bijan Robinson, it’s possible.

The matchup: The game will most likely be the story of the Michigan offence against the TCU defence. With Blake Corum out, the Wolverines will rely a bit more on their passing game, but TCU’s secondary is one of the strongest parts of their team.

With that said, the Horned Frogs still need to worry about Edwards on the ground, as the Wolverines rush for at least 165 yards every game this season with nine games of at least 225 yards. Edwards tallied 216 yards against Ohio State and was named MVP of the Big Ten title game with 185 yards and a touchdown.

As for Michigan, they need to be able to stop Duggan and have to have eyes on all receivers. TCU’s receiving corps is capable of turning a short open target for a long gain, and 28 per cent of TCU’s passes this season were thrown to wide-open targets.

On top of that, 40 per cent of their contested targets were also caught, while over half of Duggan’s completions this year were good for a first down conversion or touchdown. Michigan corners DJ Turner and Will Johnson will have their work cut out for them.

The Wolverines used to struggle heavily in the red zone, but improved to a 75 per cent after Nov. 1 and scored on ever red zone possession against Ohio State and Purdue. Only against Illinois did they seem to have any struggles to score.

Both teams are very obviously second half teams as seen in their performances throughout the year, but if the Wolverines can stop Duggan through the air and McCarthy can limit any passes that could turn to turnovers, they seem to have the edge in every other department.