There are so many possible playoff permutations that—unless you’re a noted mathematician—it will make your head spin.
Here’s what we know for sure heading into Week 18: Calgary has locked up first in the West, and Edmonton and Saskatchewan have secured post-season berths. BC can ensure a playoff spot with a win over Winnipeg. And in the East it’s a three-team game of musical chairs with likely only two seats open because of a Western crossover looming.
There are 30 potential ways teams can be seeded for the playoffs heading into this weekend’s games and that number will be considerably reduced when Week 18 comes to a close. So with the scenarios all laid out, let’s get to some of the factors that might decide outcomes.
KJ capable seat-warmer for Darian Durant
Kerry Joseph was solid yet unspectacular in his return as a starter last week. The 41-year-old completed 17 of 36 passing attempts for 213 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in Sunday’s 24–19 loss to the Eskimos.
It wasn’t ideal to have Joseph dropping back to throw so many times, but the CFL’s second-leading rusher, Anthony Allen, did sit out with back spasms. So the Riders’ experienced pivot was forced to put the ball in the air more than likely expected.
Allen will be unavailable again for Saskatchewan’s road trip to Calgary. Head coach Corey Chamblin wants to give Allen more time to get fully healed. And it will give the green and white a chance to get an extended look at first-year runner Keith Toston. He ran for 1,218 yards and 11 touchdowns for Oklahoma State in 2009.
The Riders need to use their run game to maintain balance like they’ve done so well for most of the season. Saskatchewan threw the ball 36 times compared to just 19 run plays in Week 17. The numbers need to be closer to 50/50, especially with Joseph trying to get back to form. And especially with the Riders likely to be on the road throughout the playoffs.
Ticats boost Argos’ ticket sales
Putting butts in seats at the Rogers Centre has been a troubling issue for the Argos. Too many of Toronto’s home games have been played with little to no atmosphere. Just over 18,000 is the season-high for attendance at an Argos game, but the official number always seems to have been given a generous boost—it seems like they count the tarped-off seats towards the total.
The team needn’t worry, though, as their sworn enemy is set to buy some ducats and help fill the building for Hamilton and Toronto’s crucial meeting on Saturday. The Ticats’ offer to fans is as follows: purchase a silver or gold ticket to Hamilton’s Nov. 8 home game at Tim Hortons Field and receive a complimentary pass to the Ticats-Argos tilt. It’s a smart initiative for two reasons: It sells tickets and creates a home-field advantage on the road. Win-win.
For Hamilton to come away with a win on the field and claim the season series against Toronto, the Ticats must convert red-zone opportunities into touchdowns. The Tabbies rank dead last in the CFL in that category, converting just 41 percent (16-of-39) of the time inside the 20-yard line.
Hamilton learned the hard way that you can’t settle for field goals and let Ricky Ray hang around—he led a 17-point fourth-quarter comeback win in Week 16 against the Tiger-Cats. Ray can change the game in an instant.
Lions win and they’re in; Bombers lose and they’re out
If Winnipeg wants to keep its slim playoff hopes alive, a victory is a must.
Bombers quarterback Drew Willy will be back at the controls after missing a game with a sore hand. And Paris Cotton has shown flashes of being a dynamic back in the CFL. But Winnipeg’s defence isn’t helping the cause.
Big Blue has dropped seven in a row and the defence has been giving up points at an alarming rate. Over the dreadful losing streak Winnipeg has allowed an average of over 31 points per outing. Just too many for Willy and the offence to overcome.
BC’s last game was a 38-point beatdown against the Ottawa Redblacks, and they had a bye last week to get ready for Winnipeg. Rookie rusher Keola Antolin (17 carries for 157 yards) and Ernest Jackson (eight catches for 195 yards and one touchdown) are coming off career-best performances. Not to mention veteran pivot Kevin Glenn had his most efficient outing of the season against Ottawa, completing 20 of 27 throws for 345 yards and three touchdowns. And No. 1 receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux might be back in the lineup, too.
Winnipeg’s struggling defence will have their hands full with a BC offence that is rolling.