Colleagues and friends are often asking for my CFL picks. So each week I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming slate of games, and choose winners against the spread. Lining your pockets with some extra money is the end goal, but it’s much easier said than done.
You won’t find anyone on a better run picking CFL winners over the least two weeks: 8-1 against-the-spread streak. So let’s keep it rolling.
Alouettes (5-10) @ Argos (9-6)
Last week: Alouettes lost 23–11 at home against Hamilton; Argos lost 27–15 as the home team at Tim Hortons Field against Calgary
Back in Week 16 Montreal used three different quarterbacks—due to injury and subpar performance—in an eight-point loss to Toronto. This time around the Alouettes face the Argos with their hired gun: Kevin Glenn.
The 36-year-old’s debut with Montreal was better than the stats might suggest (26-44, 226 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT). Glenn’s new receivers dropped several catchable balls—S.J. Green failing to haul in a perfect ball in the end zone with the score 19–2 late in the third quarter stood out most. And the interceptions weren’t entirely terrible throws; he was hit while releasing one and another was tipped into the air.
For a second straight week Toronto plays a “home game” in enemy territory at Tim Hortons Field. The Argos looked out of sync on offence against Calgary in Week 17 and they were shut out in the opening 30 minutes. Quarterback Trevor Harris said it was probably the worst half of football he’s played since high school.
Toronto has clinched a playoff spot and the Argos could finish first in the East with a strong final three games. Meanwhile, Montreal could use a victory to boost their crossover playoff aspirations. In a divisional game, take the points.
Line: Argos -7.5
Pick: Montreal
Ticats (10-5) @ Lions (5-10)
Last week: Ticats won 23–11 in Montreal; Lions lost 26–23 in OT in Edmonton
Hamilton’s been tough as steel at home and on the road. The Ticats have the best road record in the CFL this season at 5-2. In fact, they’ve ripped off four straight road wins, their longest streak since 1981.
Often times football games are decided by turnovers and there is a vast difference between B.C. and Hamilton in that department. The Leos have coughed up 41 giveaways—tied for second-most in the league—and the Tabbies have produced 47 takeaways to lead the CFL.
Travel hasn’t seemed to bother Hamilton and they left a day earlier than normal for B.C. to get acclimated out on the Left coast.
Line: Ticats -1
Pick: Hamilton
Redblacks (9-6) @ Bombers (5-11)
Last week: Redblacks won 27–24 at home against Winnipeg; Bombers lost 27–24 in Ottawa
Ottawa travels to Winnipeg for the back end of a home-and-home set with the Blue Bombers.
Last week Winnipeg couldn’t produce any points in the first half in a game that could have given them a leg up in the chase for the final playoff spot in the West. And Henry Burris carved up the Bombers’ defence for 370 yards in steady rain for most of the 60 minutes. It wasn’t an inspiring performance whatsoever from the men wearing gold and blue in any way.
Even though it’s tough to win back-to-back games against the same opponent, Ottawa can get it done here.
Line: Bombers -1
Pick: Ottawa
Eskimos (12-4) @ Riders (2-13)
Last week: Eskimos won 26–23 in OT at home against BC; Riders had a bye week
Two polar-opposite defences take the field in Regina on Saturday night. Edmonton has allowed league lows in points (18.4) and yards per game (290.9) compared to Saskatchewan giving up league worsts (30.8 and 388.1) in those same categories.
Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly could use a tasty matchup—rookie Ticats pivot Jeff Mathews put up 385 yards and three touchdowns the last time Saskatchewan took the field—to really get out of a pick-throwing funk he’s been in. Reilly’s been intercepted nine times in his last five games. He needs to develop better habits protecting the football if Edmonton is going to make a Grey Cup run.
All that said, it’s important to consider the fact that the Riders are using the final three games of the season to evaluate many different players and a number of them have seen little to no game action in the CFL. What’s more, the Eskimos are gunning for the West Division regular-season title. That should all add up to the favourite covering.
Line: Eskimos -8.5
Pick: Edmonton
Dunk’s overall record against the spread: 25-23-1