Every Thursday down the stretch of the 2018 NFL season, we’ll look at how the playoff picture is shaping up — who’s in, who’s out, and who’s ready to make a move.
This week, before we dig into the likely Week 15 scenarios, let’s dabble in the possibilities we thought would be completely impossible.
If you counted the New York Giants out of contention back in October, you’re not alone. Up until Week 9, the club had just a single victory to their name (Week 3 against the Texans, before Houston heated up). But then, something happened. They won back-to-back contests coming off their bye week to start November, then lost a close one against Philadelphia before putting up two more wins in the two weeks that followed — that’s four wins in the past five games, and suddenly they find themselves just one win behind their peers in what is shaping up to be an interesting playoff race.
Joe Ferreira on Twitter
Currently 8 teams in the NFC (50% of the conference) are within 1.5 games of each other: 6) MIN 6-6-1 7) CAR 6-7 8) PHI 6-7 9) WAS 6-7 10) GB 5-7-1 11) TB 5-8 12) NYG 5-8 13) DET 5-8 @BaxFootballGuru @wingoz @NFLonFOX
As NFL Network’s Peter Schrager pointed out, a lot of pieces need to fall into place in order for the Giants to play football in January. In addition to New York winning all three of their remaining games (vs. Titans, at Colts, vs. Cowboys), the Panthers, Eagles, Vikings, and Redskins must each lose two of their three remaining games, and the Packers and Buccaneers must lose one — which, if you look at the remaining schedules, is entirely possible.
Now, shifting over to the AFC, and another unlikely — but not out of the question — team: The Cleveland Browns (!), who actually still have a shot at claiming the division. In order to do so, they need:
1. Wins over the Broncos, Bengals, and Ravens. They haven’t defeated Denver since 1991 (11 games), but they topped both Cincinnati and Baltimore earlier this season.
2. The Ravens (vs. Buccaneers, at Chargers) and Steelers (vs. Patriots, at Saints) to lose their next two games.
3. Hue Jackson’s help. Because football writes the best scripts, the AFC North — and the Browns’ place atop it — could end up relying on their old coach and the Bengals’ ability to defeat the Steelers in the regular-season finale.
Remember that season-opening tie game between the Steelers and Browns? The one we all joked that could actually come into play down the stretch during the playoff race? Well… here we are. Browns fans should also be rooting against the Colts, Titans, and Dolphins, if they have any hopes of taking the wild-card route to January football.
Of course, one loss between now and then will rule them out. According to the stats pros over at FiveThirtyEight, both the Browns and Giants have less than a one per cent chance of making the playoffs, but this isn’t over just yet.
Now, back to reality:
UPDATE: This article has been updated to reflect the outcome of Thursday’s Chargers victory over the Chiefs and how it affects the playoff picture.
Who’s in?
Kansas City Chiefs [x] (11-3): They could’ve been crowned AFC West champs and clinched a first-round bye with a win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday, but Philip Rivers and Mike Williams prevented that from happened with a huge late comeback win in prime time. The rivals now share the same 11-3 record, but the Chiefs still sit in the No. 1 spot thanks to a 4-1 division record (compared to L.A.’s 3-2).
New Orleans Saints [xy] (11-2): A win Monday night (at Panthers) AND a Bears loss/tie (vs. Packers) clinches a first-round bye. They can also get there with a tie in Carolina PLUS a Bears loss.
Los Angeles Rams [xy] (11-2): They can add a guaranteed first-round bye with a victory over the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday PLUS a Chicago Bears loss/tie. A Rams tie and a Bears loss will also clinch it.
Los Angeles Chargers [x] (11-3): Despite several injuries on offence, Philip Rivers and Mike Williams found a way to defeat the Chiefs Thursday night and clinch a playoff berth in the process. Now 11-3 on the season, they pull even with Kansas City and the race for the AFC West title comes down to the wire.
Albert Breer on Twitter
If the Chiefs lose in Seattle next week, and the Chargers win out, then the road to Super Bowl LIII will go through the StubHub Center.
Who’s out?
Buffalo Bills, 4-9
Jacksonville Jaguars, 4-9
New York Jets, 4-9
Oakland Raiders, 3-10
Arizona Cardinals, 3-10
San Francisco 49ers, 3-10
If the playoffs started today…
AFC Wild Card matchups:
No. 6 Ravens (7-6) at No. 3 Texans (9-4)
No. 5 Chargers [x] (11-3) at No. 4 Steelers (7-5-1)
AFC Divisional Round matchups:
No. 1 Chiefs [x] (11-3) vs. TBD (Lowest-Winning Seed From AFC Wild Card Round)
No. 2 Patriots (9-4) vs. TBD (Highest-Winning Seed From AFC Wild Card Round)
NFC Wild Card matchups:
No. 6 Vikings (6-6-1) at No. 3 Bears (9-4)
No. 5 Seahawks (8-5) at No. 4 Cowboys (8-5)
NFC Divisional Round matchups:
No. 1 Saints [xy] (11-2) vs. TBD (Lowest-Winning Seed From AFC Wild Card Round)
No. 2 Rams [xy] (11-2) vs. TBD (Highest-Winning Seed From AFC Wild Card Round)
[x] = Clinched Playoff Berth
[y] = Clinched Division Title
Teams that can clinch in Week 15
Chicago Bears, 9-4 (vs. Packers, Sunday 1 p.m. ET)
With their statement victory over the high-flying Rams in Week 14, the Bears’ dominant defence paved the way for Chicago to clinch the NFC North with one of the following outcomes: A win over Green Bay; a Vikings loss (vs. Dolphins); OR a tie for both the Bears and Vikings. Chicago will clinch a post-season berth (not the division) with a tie this Sunday OR a Washington tie/loss (at Jaguars).
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Dallas Cowboys, 8-5 (at Colts, Sunday 1 p.m. ET)
The Cowboys’ victory over the Eagles on Sunday put them in full control of the NFC East. They’ll officially be crowned champs of the division with one of the following three outcomes:
• DAL win OR
• DAL tie + PHI loss/tie + WSH loss/tie OR
• PHI loss + WSH loss
Seattle Seahawks, 8-5 (at 49ers, Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET)
The Seahawks have won their previous four games. A fifth consecutive W gets them a ticket to the post-season. Though a little more complicated, they can also clinch a playoff berth with a tie this Sunday. Here’s how:
• SEA tie + MIN loss + CAR loss/tie OR
• SEA tie + MIN loss + PHI loss/tie + WSH loss/tie OR
• SEA tie + CAR loss/tie + PHI loss/tie + WSH loss/tie
New England Patriots, 9-4 (at Pittsburgh, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Miracle in Miami prevented the Patriots from clinching their historic 10th consecutive division title. They’ve got another shot this Sunday – and the Dolphins can once again play spoiler. The Patriots clinch the AFC East with a win over the Steelers AND a Dolphins loss/tie (at Vikings); Or a tie against Pittsburgh PLUS a Dolphins loss. They’ll clinch a playoff berth (but not the division) with the following:
• NE win + TEN loss/tie OR
• NE tie + BAL loss + TEN loss + IND loss/tie
Houston Texans, 9-4 (at Jets, Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET)
This one’s kind of complicated, so we’ll let the bullet points do all the talking.
How the Texans can clinch the AFC South:
• HOU win + IND loss or tie + TEN loss or tie OR
• HOU tie + IND loss + TEN loss
How the Texans can clinch a playoff berth:
• HOU win + MIA loss or tie + PIT loss OR
• HOU win + MIA loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR
• HOU tie + IND loss or tie + BAL loss + MIA loss OR
• HOU tie + IND loss or tie + PIT loss + BAL loss + MIA tie OR
• HOU tie + IND loss or tie + PIT loss + BAL win + MIA loss OR
• HOU tie + TEN loss or tie + BAL loss + MIA loss OR
• HOU tie + TEN loss or tie + PIT loss + BAL loss + MIA tie OR
• HOU tie + TEN loss or tie + PIT loss + BAL win + MIA loss
Race to the bottom
Despite their unlikely win in Week 14, the 49ers still hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft. The Cardinals and Raiders round out the top three, restoring order in the league’s basement.
Three matchups to watch
Chargers [x] (11-3) defeat Chiefs [x] (11-3) 29-28, Thursday night
It looked like the Chiefs were well on their way to claiming the AFC West, but a late surge from the Chargers saw L.A. secure a post-season berth. This division decision will have to wait.
Patriots (9-4) at Steelers (7-5-1), Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
This is a tradition we could get on board with: A mid-December meeting between the Patriots and Steelers with plenty of playoff implications on the line. Last year, both teams were already playoff-bound and sitting atop their respective divisions as they fought for home-field advantage. This time around, neither has clinched a post-season berth just yet and both are coming off discouraging losses that raised more than a few questions about the state of the franchises. The Steelers have lost three straight and aren’t eligible to clinch a playoff berth just yet, which means the Ravens and Browns will be watching closely, too. (The Patriots just got a whole bunch of new fans in Northeast Ohio.) The Patriots, on the other hand, have one win standing between them and their 10th straight AFC East title.
Eagles (6-7) at Rams (11-2), Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
It’s do-or-die for the Eagles, who lost their grip on the division when they fell to the Cowboys in Week 14 and will likely be without Carson Wentz. The Rams, meanwhile, have a shot at securing themselves a week’s worth of extra prep time for genius head coach Sean McVay while restarting the offence that was shut down by Chicago last week.
