Got a hot topic? Our NFL panel has opinions. The panel includes NFL editor Craig Battle, Sportsnet deputy editor Jordan Heath-Rawlings, staff writers Mike Johnston and Jeff Simmons, and associate editor Geoff Lowe.
1. Which team is your upset pick against the spread in Week 12?
BATTLE: Pittsburgh. I don’t know if I trust Ben Roethlisberger and co. to go into Seattle and come out with a victory, but they’re getting 3.5 points right now and I can definitely see them keeping it within a field goal. While the Steelers’s secondary is suspect, they’ve won four of the last five games in which Roethlisberger has suited up, and the one loss was to a then-juggernaut Bengals team by a whopping six points.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have won three of their last four, but those games have been against the 49ers (twice) and the Cowboys minus-Romo (and only by one point). Pittsburgh can keep this one tight.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: This is actually a pretty tough week for finding value, with the mismatches garnering heavy spreads and every other game being fairly close. So for our surprise pick, we’ll double down against the spread and straight up and take Tampa Bay over Indianapolis. Jameis Winston has been improving steadily after a turnover-prone start to his NFL career, while the return of Vincent Jackson last week gave the Bucs a dual threat at wide receiver for the first time in nearly a month.
Matt Hasselbeck has been solid in relief of Andrew Luck, but he’s never going to make Indy’s offence explosive—and with Winston and his receivers, plus a scorching-hot Doug Martin and perhaps even the return of promising young tight end Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, the Bucs can blow up for points on any given Sunday.
SIMMONS: The Seattle Seahawks‘ much-maligned offensive line has started to show signs of improvement and Russell Wilson is coming off his best game of the season, but the Steelers pose a match-up issue for a secondary that has not been played well enough against quality quarterbacks.
The Seahawks have already allowed more explosive plays (plays or 20 yards or more) than either of the past two seasons and starting cornerback Cary Williams got benched in the second half last week for his declining production. Seattle doesn’t have the depth in the secondary they’ve had in recent years and as a result, they could have major issues trying to slow down Pittsburgh’s explosive group of receivers.
Richard Sherman isn’t built to shut down smaller, quicker receivers so there’s already some rumblings that Sherman may line up with Martavis Bryant, which leaves who to cover Antonio Brown? It should be a close game and one that Pittsburgh could very well win if Ben Roethlisberger is on his game with his downfield passing.
2. Which underdog could you see winning outright?
BATTLE: Uh, Vegas? Why is Atlanta favoured to beat the Minnesota Vikings? I understand that as of Friday afternoon the Vikings were only getting a point, so it’s basically a pick-‘em, but still, underdogs are underdogs—and Minnesota shouldn’t be one here. Before dropping last week’s game to the Packers, the Vikes had won five straight. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s lost three straight, and won’t have Devonta Freeman for Sunday. Purple is the play here.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: See above.
SIMMONS: It would qualify as a minor upset, but Vegas still has the Minnesota Vikings listed as underdogs against the Atlanta Falcons, who have fallen apart after a 5-0 start to the season. Atlanta appears to have peaked a bit early and personnel issues have showed up in surprising losses to Tampa Bay, San Francisco, and a Colts team without Andrew Luck.
The Falcons aren’t a physical group up front, which coud be an issue against Adrian Peterson, and outside of Julio Jones they don’t have enough quality skill players to move the ball against a stout Vikings defence. De’Vonta Freeman won’t play for the Falcons either so I see the Vikings, even with a limited passing game, pulling off the road victory.
3. Who’s your Week 12 fantasy sleeper?
BATTLE: Brian Hoyer. Simply a case of following the bad defence. The Saints’ pass coverage and pass rush have both been terrible, and though they’ve changed coordinators a single bye week won’t have been enough to turn this group around. When Hoyer’s been healthy, he’s taken a lot of chances and thrown a ton of balls—not to mention targeted DeAndre Hopkins a ton (an average of about 14 per game)—which all bodes well for his chances of ripping off a long touchdown or three.
HEATH-RAWLINGS: When a double down is not enough, triple down. I’ll take the aforementioned Jameis Winston as my fantasy sleeper this week, and if you’ve still got Vincent Jackson on your bench, this is the week to throw him in there, too. The Colts have one defensive weapon really, and that’s shutdown CB Vontae Davis. Davis should essentially shadow Mike Evans all day, and thankfully V-Jax is healthy enough to take advantage of what should be very winnable matchups in coverage.
SIMMONS: My Jameson Crowder pick last week turned out horrible. So let’s try and have a better week. The Broncos will need to score a lot of points against the Patriots to have a chance to end their undefeated season. And now with Brock Osweiler at quarterback, Gary Kubiak has shifted back to his preferred style of offence. Run the ball, roll out the quarterback and use your tight ends.
As a result, Vernon Davis was heavily involved for Denver last week when Osweiler made his first start and he could target Davis frequently again on Sunday. Davis has TE1 upside and might be available on waivers in most leagues.