Each Friday of the 2018 NFL season, we’ll be picking every game (except for Thursday Night Football, of course) against the spread.
Here are the picks for Week 14.
New York Giants (-3.5) at Washington
The Pick: Giants
A line that started with Washington as one-point favourites now sees the Giants favoured by more than a field goal. Still, seventy per cent of bettors are putting their money on Big Blue, and I’m with them.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-5)
The Pick: Packers
As bad as the Packers have been, the Falcons haven’t scored more than 19 points in any of their last four games and their run game has gone AWOL. Plus, I expect a post-McCarthy firing bump from Aaron Rodgers.
New Orleans Saints (-9.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Pick: Saints
The Bucs had their best game of the second half last week, but I can’t give them much of a chance against a Saints team that was embarrassed on national TV last time out.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
The Pick: Chiefs
It’s the league’s best offence against its best defence, but this will likely come down to whether a suspect Chiefs run defence can slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ surging ground game. I’m betting they get some surprise stops and Patrick Mahomes helps K.C. win by at least a TD.
Carolina Panthers (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Pick: Browns
Cam Newton is injured, the Panthers have lost four straight (and won just once on the road all season), and the Browns are a tough out at home.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-4.5)
The Pick: Texans
The Colts will keep it close if they can protect Andrew Luck — something the offensive line failed to do against the Jaguars. I like this Texans defence to cause Luck some trouble and force some turnovers, and Deshaun Watson to take advantage.
New England Patriots (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Pick: Dolphins
Miami has won four of their last five games at home against the Patriots. The Dolphins may not do that Sunday, but this could be a close affair.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
The Pick: Bills
Consider me a member of Team Josh Allen. Plus, Buffalo is a tough place to play in December on the best of days, and Sam Darnold could have a rough return against the Bills defence.
Denver Broncos (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The Pick: Broncos
The Broncos have been ravaged by injuries of late – which includes losing top receiver Emmanuel Sanders to a torn Achilles earlier this week – but they’re still a safe bet against a 49ers team that is 1-4 against the spread at home this season.
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-14)
The Pick: Chargers
The Chargers proved last week they can win big games on the big stage, even without their No. 1 running back. L.A. has been a bit suspect at home (just 2-3 ATS), but it’s hard to pick the Dalton-less Bengals in any situation.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Oakland Raiders
The Pick: Raiders
Oakland came to play at home last week against the Chiefs, and given the Steelers’ recent woes on offence – and they’re now without James Conner – a close game wouldn’t be a surprise here.
Detroit Lions (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
The Pick: Cardinals
Can Arizona build off Sunday’s stunner in Green Bay? The Cardinals are one of the league’s worst home teams hosting the Lions, one of the worst road teams. Flip a coin.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
The Pick: Eagles
These two teams have split every season series since 2013 and, against all logic, I’m betting on the Eagles to keep that streak going, winning in Dallas on Sunday and taking the NFC East lead.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Chicago Bears
The Pick: Rams
The good news for Chicago is Mitchell Trubisky will likely return under centre, but can he and the Bears offence go shot-for-shot with the Rams juggernaut? I have my doubts.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
The Pick: Seahawks
Seattle is red hot, Russell Wilson is playing great and the Seahawks are 3-1 against the spread at home this season. The Vikings, meanwhile, have failed to rack up 300 yards of offence in each of their last two road games.
