If you’re in the business of predicting football games, the first quarter of the 2018 NFL season has been stressful.
The Buffalo Bills’ dominant win over the Vikings in Minnesota last week has been the most shocking result so far this season, but it was far from the only big surprise through three weeks.
And Week 4 doesn’t get any easier.
Below you’ll find picks against the spread for each game. So read on, and keep checking back throughout the season as we’ll be doing this on Friday each week.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
The Pick: Colts
J.J. Watt is back, but not much else has gone right for Houston so far this season. With Andrew Luck progressing under centre and a scrappy Colts defence, Indy at home is a solid pick against the winless Texans.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
The Pick: Lions
Matt Stafford has been red-hot over the last two games, and the Lions are coming off a dominant win over the Patriots. On the flip side, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offence have yet to put up 300 yards.
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-10)
The Pick: Bills
The most impressive part of Buffalo’s shock win in Minnesota was the defence, which pressured Kirk Cousins 29 times (!) and forced three turnovers. Another result like last week’s isn’t likely for Buffalo, but I could see Sean McDermott’s defence keeping it close.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-3)
The Pick: Bears
We saw how much trouble the Steelers caused Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs’ offensive line, hitting Fitzpatrick 13 times and sacking him three more. Now Tampa travels to Chicago to face the league’s best pass-rushing team.
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)
The Pick: Jets
Aside from the fact the Jaguars’ offensive struggles should steer bettors away from a spread of this size, home teams haven’t fared all that well so far this season when favoured by a touchdown or more.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)
The Pick: Dolphins
The Dolphins haven’t won in New England since 2008, so this is a tough pick to validate. But these teams feel different early this season: The Patriots have struggled mightily on offence the last two games, while Miami ranks sixth in yards allowed through three weeks.
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Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-5)
The Pick: Falcons
This pick relies heavily on the health of A.J. Green. It sounds like he’ll be a go for Sunday, but at 100 percent? Already missing starting running back Joe Mixon, another significant injury on offence will make it tough for the Bengals to keep up with Atlanta’s potent offence.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Tennessee Titans
The Pick: Titans
The Titans defence has been sneaky-good and the Eagles are still dealing with injuries to key skill-position players while Carson Wentz re-acclimatizes to the NFL after knee surgery. I expect this game to be tight.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
The Pick: Cardinals
Home underdogs have been fairly successful so far this season, which is why I’m backing the Josh Rosen-led Cardinals after an impressive defensive performance last week against the Bears. Plus, Arizona has a history of playing the Seahawks tough at home.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-3)
The Pick: Raiders
The Baker Mayfield Era is under way in Cleveland, and his first full game comes on the road on the West Coast against a Raiders team that has been in every game it’s played. Oakland gets its first win this weekend.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at New York Giants
The Pick: Giants
Once again, the success of home underdogs so far this season comes into play for a tough game to pick in the Meadowlands between two teams that have shown their best and worst through three weeks.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5)
The Pick: Chargers
2018 now looks like it will be a lost season for the 49ers after Jimmy Garoppolo’s season-ending knee surgery. The Chargers, on the other hand, own a misleading record (1-2) after having faced two of the league’s three undefeated teams so far.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
The Pick: Steelers
The Steelers have won four of the last five regular-season games in Pittsburgh against their bitter rivals. Meanwhile, in their only road game so far this season, Joe Flacco and the Ravens struggled in Cincinnati.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Denver Broncos
The Pick: Chiefs
It’s been suggested this trip to Denver will be K.C.’s toughest game yet, and there’s reason to believe it will be. But it’s very easy to see the high-powered Chiefs winning this game by at least a touchdown, especially against a Broncos team scoring just 20 points per game (the Chiefs are averaging more than 39).
