Canadian Grand Prix-view: Can Ferrari maintain momentum from Monaco?

The unofficial start of summer has arrived with Formula One returning to Montreal for this weekend’s Canadian Grand Prix. 

This will be the 59th running of the Canadian GP and 43rd at the circuit named after the late local icon Gilles Villeneuve. 

The course on Notre Dame Island features slow speed corners ala Monaco and while it's nowhere near as constricted as the Monte Carlo circuit, even the best of drivers have ended up in the barrier near the final turn, earning the moniker “Wall of Champions." 

Here are the storylines to follow leading up to Sunday’s main event.

CAN FERRARI MAINTAIN MOMENTUM FROM MONACO?

Ferrari are entering on a heater after a super Monaco Grand Prix two weekends ago. Monegasque driver Charles Leclerc earned a spirited victory at his home track, his first win in almost two years, while teammate Carlos Sainz came in third to make it a double-podium finish for the iconic brand.

Leclerc is the only driver to finish within the top four in every grand prix this season thanks to consistency and reliability. Ferrari’s cars do not lose as much speed through slow corners compared to their competitors, allowing Leclerc to secure pole position in Monaco en route to victory. Another superb hot lap Saturday could lead to similar results Sunday. 

Leclerc's win in Monaco cut the deficit to championship leader Max Verstappen of Red Bull down to 31 points and even the constructors’ championship is tight with Ferrari only 24 points behind Red Bull.

It would be closer, however, Sainz missed the Saudi Arabian GP in early March due to emergency appendix surgery. Remarkably, Sainz was back behind the wheel just a fortnight later and drove his Ferrari to victory in Australia after Verstappen retired due to brake issues. The Spanish driver hasn’t finished outside of the top five in the races he has competed in this season. 

History is on their side as Ferrari have won a record 14 times in Canada. Eleven of those have come in Montreal including Villeneuve’s victory during the first race on Notre Dame Island in 1978. The Tifosi should be out in full force again and with the crowd, and momentum, on their side, Ferrari should be on track for another big week.

VERSTAPPEN AIMING FOR THREE-PEAT

Pole is gold in Montreal. Since 2015, the pole-sitter has converted to victory on all but one occasion (unless you believe Sebastian Vettel was robbed in 2019, then it's a perfect 100). Overall, the pole-sitter has won 21 out of 42 times in Montreal and you can thank Verstappen for keeping those numbers high. The Dutch driver is the double defending race winner in Montreal having claimed both of his victories from pole position. 

Verstappen is a pole position machine (no, not that kind of Pole Position machine) having locked down P1 seven consecutive times to start this season and a record-tying eight straight stretching back to last year.

The three-time reigning world champion looked unmatched to start 2024 after winning the season-opener in Bahrain by over 22 seconds. Considering teammate Sergio Perez finished second, the closest non-Red Bull to Verstappen was Sainz in third place and an additional three seconds back. Verstappen has a total of five wins on the season although the margins have dropped.

Verstappen has made some uncharacteristic mistakes cutting corners though. He hit a bollard in Miami that caused floor damage and prevented him from catching eventual winner Lando Norris while a brush with the wall in Monaco during qualifying put him sixth on the starting grid and essentially knocked him out of contention before the race even began.

Two drivers have three-peated in Montreal: Michael Schumacher (2002-04) and Lewis Hamilton (2015-17). Could we have a third three-peat? 

Meanwhile, Perez has zero wins on the year but is fifth in the drivers’ standings helping the team hold onto the constructors’ lead. Red Bull gave Perez a vote of confidence with a two-year extension Tuesday, and that should ease off some of the pressure for the Mexican driver knowing he’s not on the hot seat.

SOMEHOW, MCLAREN RETURNED 

Not to be overshadowed by Ferrari, McLaren have won 13 times in Canada (just one back of their longtime rivals) including nine in Montreal. Technically, Ferrari's wins in 1963 and 1964 didn't count towards the world championship, so McLaren does hold the record from a certain point of view.

McLaren didn’t even warrant a storyline during our Canadian Grand Prix-view last year and for good reason as they had been struggling to start the season and ended up leaving Montreal empty-handed. Norris came in unlucky 13th with then-rookie Oscar Piastri in quite possibly an unluckier position of 11th as he ended up just on the doorstep from collecting points.

It was after Montreal when the upgrades started rolling in and led to a dramatic turnaround in the team’s fortunes. Suddenly it was podiums and not just points that Norris and Piastri were chasing. 

McLaren have continued to build on that success this year with Norris earning his first career win last month in Miami. For the encore, Norris was less than a second back of Verstappen for the lead on the final lap in Imola. Meanwhile, Monaco was Piastri’s turn to take a trip to the podium finishing second. 

Montreal isn’t a track you think McLaren would excel at as their cars are better suited for high speed corners (fittingly the opposite of Ferrari) but it’s hard to rule them out at the pace they’ve been running.

CAN CON 

What a difference a year can make. While McLaren have soared, Aston Martin have stalled heading back to the home race for driver Lance Stroll.

Stroll has finished outside of the top 10 in four of the past five races and sits 11th in the championship with, oddly enough, 11 points.

If there’s some solace for Stroll it’s that his home race has been good to him over the years. Stroll scored his first career points in Montreal during his rookie season with Williams in 2017 and overall has finished within the top 10 four out of five times. He’s also been among the biggest movers during the previous two seasons finishing seven places higher than his starting spot on the grid both times. 

Canadian fans could also cheer for Alpine with Vancouver’s Ryan Reynolds now owning a part of the team, but things aren’t looking too swell for them. They’re definitely not delivering “maximum effort" as Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon have only scored a single point each. Gasly’s came just recently in Monaco although not without incident as Ocon took himself out of the race by running into his own teammate on the opening lap. Ocon’s days with the team are numbered as Alpine already announced they’ll be parting ways at the end of the season.

If Aston Martin and Alpine aren’t to your liking, let’s double back to McLaren. Piastri has been hunting for heritage roots at races and was “adopted” by Leclerc in Monaco. Considering how well that turned out, don’t be surprised to see Piastri embracing his Canadian roots. 

CAN HAMILTON SNAP TIE WITH SCHUMACHER AND CLAIM HIS EIGHTH? 

No, we’re not talking about their world championship record as funny enough Hamilton and Michael Schumacher are also tied for the most wins in Montreal with seven apiece.

Montreal holds a special place for Hamilton as before he was F1’s all-time winningest driver, the British driver earned his first-ever victory at the circuit during his rookie year in 2007. Hamilton is in the midst of the longest drought of his career though stretching back to the penultimate race of the 2021 season in Saudi Arabia (or the 2021 finale in Abu Dhabi with an asterisk if you’re still not over that).

The latest regulations kicked in the following season and Mercedes have underperformed since then with just one win combined courtesy of teammate George Russell. At this point, even a podium has been elusive as both drivers have been shut out from the top three this season. Russell has two top-five results, but Hamilton has finished no higher than sixth. Mercedes continue to roll out upgrades but are still searching for a McLaren-esque comeback. 

Montreal might just be the remedy Hamilton needs. Not only has he won a record-tying seven times, he’s also finished on the podium on three other occasions including the past two seasons with third-place results. 

If not now, then there’s always next year when Hamilton joins Ferrari.

HERE COMES THE RAIN? 

You might want to keep an eye on your weather app as rain has often played a factor in the Canadian Grand Prix, right from the first one in 1967 when the event was held at Canadian Tire Motorsport Park in Bowmanville, Ont. 

Rain also led to the most memorable Canadian GP in 2011, the longest GP in history as a heavy downpour wreaked havoc and led to a delay of over two hours. Through it all, Jenson Button tangled with McLaren teammate Hamilton and dropped to 15th after serving a penalty for speeding under the safety car. Button managed to pick his way through the field and following the sixth (!!!) appearance of the safety car, he passed both Mark Webber and Schumacher with four laps remaining to move up into second place and close in on leader Sebastian Vettel.

Vettel was in the midst of another banner year and went on to capture his second of four consecutive world championships while finishing on the podium in all but two races. Montreal was Button's day to shine though (despite the stormy weather). Vettel made a mistake turning in too late around a corner during the final lap and that was the opening Button needed to slide into the lead and win the race.

Just saying, a dominant Red Bull in championship form has been beaten here before.