2021 U.S. Open Betting Guide: Six longshots who could pay off big

It’s major time once again as the world’s top golfers return to the revered Torrey Pines South Course for the 2021 U.S. Open.

The PGA Tour makes annual stops at the historic San Diego, Calif., location for the Farmers Insurance Open but the last time the U.S. Open was held there was in 2008 when Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate in a playoff to win his 14th-career major championship.

Like many of the top courses that host majors, it’s lengthy, the rough is thick and treacherous, while irons accuracy goes a long way towards determining how difficult one’s putts will be.

“Our concept has always been ‘greens within greens,’ where if you hit a really good approach shot, you’ll have a relatively level putt, but if you miss that spot, you’ll have to come over some contour,” designer Greg Muirhead recently told Golf Digest.

Certain holes at Torrey Pines can be volatile depending on what the wind is doing – the wind will also impact the speed of the greens – however the current forecast indicates the first three days should be relatively calm and sunny with winds picking up slightly for the final round Sunday.

The course typically plays as a par 72 but after some minor design tweaks it’ll play as a par 71 for the U.S. Open. Between that and there being a plethora of long par-4s, success this weekend could hinge more on bogey avoidance than birdies.

Jon Rahm returns following his COVID-19 diagnosis, which means there’s a full field of stars and it should result in some excellent competition. There’s also plenty of value to be had if you’re thinking of placing a few bets (responsibly, of course).

With that in mind, here’s a look at some golfers favoured to do well, some others that could return big winnings, plus a handful of longshots to keep an eye on.

THE TOP TIER

Jon Rahm +1000 | Brooks Koepka +1600 | Bryson DeChambeau +1600 | Dustin Johnson +1600 | Jordan Spieth +1600 | Xander Schauffele +1800 | Rory McIlroy +2000 | Justin Thomas +2200

An American has won the U.S. Open in each of the past six years and many are expecting Spain’s Rahm to snap that streak. Rahm has a strong record at Torrey Pines with a win at the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open, a runner-up finish in 2020 and a T7 in late January. With eight top-10 finishes this year, not to mention his heartbreaking early exit from the Memorial Tournament less than two weeks ago, it’s no surprise he’s the heavy favourite heading into the week.

As we often see at majors, the long bombers are primed to have success as long as they can stay on the fairways, and no one bombs it farther than the most polarizing player on tour. DeChambeau, the 2020 U.S. Open winner, might be a player to fade at these odds, although could his highly publicized rivalry with Koepka fuel him?

Koepka, a two-time U.S. Open champ, has been inconsistent since returning from knee surgery but he did have that T2 at the PGA Championship last month and raises his game whenever a major is on the line.

Even though they won’t be paired together during the first two days, a popular matchup prop bet this week will be the Brooks vs. Bryson. Koepka is the even money underdog (+100), while DeChambeau is the slight -120 favourite to finish with a lower score than his adversary.

Schauffele doesn’t have the star power of the others in this top tier – no surprise considering he hasn’t won since 2019 and doesn’t have a major – but his game suits this course and he’s quite familiar with it being from La Jolla, Calif., and attending San Diego State. He finished T2 at the Farmers Insurance in January and has four top-six finishes at the U.S. Open. If anyone from this top group ends up on my betting card this week, it’ll be Schauffele.

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CONTENDERS WITH NICE VALUE

If you prefer avoiding chalky picks as much as possible and seek a bit more bang for your buck, then avoid betting the tops stars and consider these four players instead, all of whom boast enticing odds.

Patrick Cantlay +2500: After missing four cuts from March to May, the current FedExCup points leader has found his game and is among the hottest golfers going at the moment. Cantlay ranks fourth in bogey avoidance and strokes gained tee-to-green and has terrific value at 25-to-1.

Viktor Hovland +2500: Another popular pick this week, the 23-year-old has five top-five finishes dating back to a T2 at Torrey Pines earlier this year. Despite his youth, Hovland routinely shows poise at majors with T12 and T13 finishes at the past two U.S. Open tournaments.

Collin Morikawa +2200: Morikawa continues to perform as the best irons player on tour and as long as he’s consistent off the tee – he currently ranks sixth in driving accuracy, which makes up for his lack of distance – he can leverage that into making these greens as manageable as possible.

Tony Finau +2800: Outside of a missed cut at the Wells Fargo in early May, Finau has been steady of late and his strengths match up nicely with this type of course. He is consistently a contender at the Farmers Insurance, which bodes well for him this week.

Two others that would fall into this tier are 2021 Farmers Insurance Open winner Patrick Reed (+2800) and reigning Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama (+3300), although I’m not as high on them this week as I am the four above them.

LONG SHOTS

Phil Mickelson +6600: If the lefty completes the career grand slam following his unexpected PGA Championship win that made him the oldest player to win a major – and does so in his home city no less – it would be one of the most improbable stories in golf history. It’s also entirely possible the 50-year-old misses the cut this week, so maybe don’t mortgage your house betting on Phil. A top-20 finish prop bet is listed at +180, which is a more realistic way to profit off Mickelson.

Corey Conners +6600: The Canadian has been a model of consistency this year and tends to fare well on lengthy par-4s, which will come in handy this week. After a disappointing finish at the Memorial earlier this month, Conners has a great opportunity to make up for missing the cut at last year’s U.S. Open. Two prop bets with decent value would be Top 20 (+200) and Top Canadian (-120). The other Canucks playing are Adam Hadwin (+333), Mackenzie Hughes (+400) and Taylor Pendrith (+450).

Abraham Ancer +6600: Ranking third in driving accuracy and second in bogey avoidance, don’t be surprised if the 30-year-old is in contention by the weekend. Oddsmakers could come to regret putting this number beside Ancer, who usually saves his best round for Sundays just like he did when he shot seven under in the final round of the 2021 PGA Championship. Ancer has top-20 finishes in each of his past five outings and if he extends that to six in a row a prop bet would return +190.

Jason Kokrak +6600: Another under-the-radar player sporting huge value if he brings his A-game. Earlier in the week he was +10000 but the public has bet that number down. He is solid off the tee in terms of distance but only hits 62 per cent of his fairways. He’s also among the top putters on tour and coming off a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Max Homa +10000: It seems either Homa misses the cut or he’s in contention and nothing in between. His stats don’t jump off the page, although he has seven top-22 finishes since the Waste Management Phoenix Open, including a win at the Genesis Invitational and four other top-10 finishes.

Ryan Palmer +15000: Just like Schauffele, Hovland and Finau above, Palmer also finished T2 at the Farmers Insurance so at these odds why not? Keep in mind his best score back in January came on Day 1 when the field played the North Course before switching to the South for the final three days of the tourney.

All listed odds via Bodog as of Tuesday