The Masters 2023 betting preview: Scheffler, McIlroy obvious co-favourites

Happy Masters Week to those who celebrate.

The 87th edition of golf’s most notable tournament is set to begin Thursday with a plethora of intriguing storylines to track -- and bets to consider placing.

Can Scottie Scheffler become the first golfer in more than two decades to win back-to-back Green Jackets?

Can Rory McIlroy finally win at Augusta to become just the fifth player since the 1950s to earn a career Grand Slam?

Last year, the top storyline heading into the week arguably was Tiger Woods’ return to Augusta National following his absence due to injuries stemming from his February 2021 car crash. Woods is in the field again in 2023, competing in his 25th Masters and is displaying an appreciative, positive mood during preparations.

This year is also the first Masters to feature a field of PGA, European and LIV Tour members.

The debut of the LIV Tour in 2022 disrupted the professional golf landscape, however, Augusta National officials announced in December LIV Tour players would still be allowed to compete in the annual major despite also expressing disappointment many had left the PGA primarily for monetary reasons.

The par 72 course exceeds 7,500 total yards and could feel even lengthier this year if conditions are wet. Augusta National could be relatively damp this year with rain expected to arrive by the weekend. How much will the weather impact the notoriously fast greens? Driving distance is important at Augusta and that’ll be especially prevalent on the par-5 13th hole that has been extended by 35 yards.

With all that in mind, here’s a look at some key betting odds ahead of the esteemed tourney.

THE FRONTRUNNERS

Scottie Scheffler* +700 | Rory McIlroy +700 | Jon Rahm +900 | Jordan Spieth* +1600 | Justin Thomas +2000 | Patrick Cantlay +2000
(*denotes previous Masters win)

Scheffler won in 2022 with a three-stroke lead over runner-up McIlroy, who shot an impressive final round 64. Scheffler and McIlroy are the deserved co-favourites ahead of Day 1 with Jon Rahm, last year’s pre-tournament chalk, rounding out the top three projected contenders in 2023. They also just happen to sit one, two and three, respectively, on the Official World Golf Ranking and are the top three players on the PGA Tour this year when it comes to average strokes gained tee-to-green, a stat that can often predict who fares well on this iconic course.

Alongside that trio are the only other three stars with odds of 20/1 or shorter. Jordan Spieth was the last golfer to go wire-to-wire at the Masters and has three top-three finishes since that win. It isn’t surprising to see Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay among the favourites. Thomas has two top-eight Masters finishes in the past three years, while Cantlay’s best result was a T9 in 2019.

Rahm has four top-10 finishes and hasn’t ever finished worse than T27 in his six Masters appearances. The Spaniard did not crack the top 10 in any major in 2022 but already has three wins in 2023, including The Genesis Invitational in February.

Scheffler was the world’s top-ranked golfer ahead of the 2022 Masters and showed why by shooting a steady 69/67/71/71 en route to victory. He is still ranked No. 1 and has the chance to become the first to win back-to-back at Augusta since Tiger Woods did in 2001 and 2002. Scheffler or McIlroy can also become the first odds-on favourite to win The Masters since Tiger, who did it four times, won in 2005 as +350 chalk.

McIlroy has famously had eight attempts to complete his career Grand Slam, but based on his results it has seemed like it's only a matter of time. McIlroy has seven top-10 finishes at the Masters since 2014 and last year was his best result. Is Rory finally due?

SECONDARY CONTENDERS

Cameron Smith +2200 | Dustin Johnson* +2500 | Collin Morikawa +2500 | Tony Finau +2500 | Xander Schauffele +2500 | Jason Day +2500 | Cameron Young +2800 | Max Homa +3000 | Brooks Koepka +3300 | Viktor Hovland +3500 | Sungjae Im +3500 | Will Zalatoris +3500 | Sam Burns +3500

Some of the best players on approach are in this range. This is also where we begin seeing the top names from the LIV Tour, including 29-year-old Cameron Smith, who has three consecutive top-10s at the Masters, and 2020 winner Dustin Johnson. Brooks Koepka has a chance at his fifth career major and first Green Jacket. The 2019 co-runner-up hasn’t made the cut at Augusta since his T7 in 2020, but Koepka is coming off LIV Tour win in Orlando this past weekend.

Jason Day’s resurgence is something to monitor this weekend. The Aussie has three top-five finishes at the Masters but hasn’t been a factor at Augusta since 2019. Day has seven consecutive top-20 PGA finishes in 2023 and as long as he can stay consistent off the tee the rest of his game lines up rather well with the course.

VALUE PLAYS & NOTABLE LONGSHOTS

Hideki Matsuyama* +4000 | Corey Conners +4000 | Matt Fitzpatrick +4500 | Tyrrell Hatton +5500 | Shane Lowry +5500 | Tommy Fleetwood +5500 | Min Woo Lee +6000 | Justin Rose +6000 | Tiger Woods***** +6600 | Patrick Reed* +6600 | Joaquin Niemann +6600 | Adam Scott* +8000 | Louis Oosthuizen +9000 | Bryson DeChambeau +10000 | Sahith Theegala +11000 | Sergio Garcia* +12500 | Danny Willett* +12500 | Bubba Watson** +20000 | Phil Mickelson*** +20000 | Charl Schwartzel* +25000 | Mackenzie Hughes +25000 | Adam Svensson +25000

Hideki Matsuyama leads the list of high-value contenders. He surprised the field in 2021 to win with roughly +5000 pre-tournament odds and has only finished outside the top 15 at the Masters once since 2015.

There’s a high probability a handful of players from this group end up in the top 20 or top 10 where you’ll be able to find most of them at plus-money value.

Alongside Matsuyama at 40/1 is Corey Conners, who's among the hottest players currently on the PGA Tour. Not only is he coming off a win at the Valero Texas Open one week ago, but the Canadian has also thrived at Augusta with three consecutive top-10 finishes. He has improved his final placing at Augusta year-over-year — T10 in 2020, T8 in 2021 and T6 one year ago.

Two youngsters whose styles could see them potentially exceed expectations and thrive this week are 24-year-old Min Woo Lee, who had an impressive T14 in his Masters debut in 2022, and 25-year-old Sahith Theegala, who’ll be making his first Masters appearance.

Once the odds stretch longer than 60/1 we see more former winners who know the course better than most. For example, two-time runner-up Justin Rose can either contend for the lead or miss the cut entirely.

Meanwhile, no one has an inherent advantage at Augusta like five-time winner Tiger Woods. There is value to be found on the Tiger prop market whether you want to cheer for him or fade.

Tiger to finish in Top 20: Yes +175 | No -250
Tiger to finish in Top 30: Yes -105 | No -133
Tiger to finish in Top 40: Yes -189 | No +135

WILL THERE BE A HOLE IN ONE
Yes -250
No +175

There have been 34 holes-in-one at the Masters. The majority have occurred on the par-3 at 16, including last year when Stewart Cink sank one with his 8-iron.

There have only been four years since 2010 that didn’t see at least one hole-in-one at the Masters. Besides the 16th, hole No. 6 is the next-likeliest to see one; Conners drained one there in 2021.

TOP CANADIAN
Corey Conners -125
Mackenzie Hughes +300
Adam Svensson +300
Mike Weir* +1000

Conners is Canada’s top contender based on recent results and his consistent success at Augusta. Hughes’s best finish was a T40 two years ago, while Svensson is set for his Masters debut. Weir is celebrating the 20-year anniversary of his Masters win.

WINNING NATIONALITY
USA -139
European +200
Rest of World +375

An American has won the Green Jacket in four of the past five years with Japan’s Matsuyama being the lone exception.

WINNING MARGIN
In Playoff +400 | By 1 stroke +220 | By 2 strokes +350 | By 3 strokes +550 | By 4 strokes +800 | By 5 strokes +1200 | By 6 strokes +2000 | By 7 strokes +3000 | By 8 or more strokes +2200

Over the past decade, half of the eventual champions won by one stroke or in a playoff and half won by three or more strokes. None have won by exactly two strokes through four rounds during that time for what it’s worth.

(All betting odds listed above via Sports Interaction as of Wednesday afternoon and subject to change)