Bracketology 101: What we've learned from past triple knockout events

Triple knockout is back in the Grand Slam of Curling for the HearingLife Tour Challenge, which begins Tuesday at Charlottetown’s Bell Aliant Centre.

This will be the first time triple knockout has been used at the HearingLife Tour Challenge. It’s also the first Grand Slam of Curling event to use the format since the 2023 Co-op Canadian Open.

While most events in the series feature pool play, triple knockout is a bracket format where teams must win three games before they lose three to qualify for the playoffs.

Here’s how it works. Both men’s and women’s divisions are split into brackets with all 16 teams slotted in the A Event. Teams that win their games continue in their current bracket while losses drop them down to the B Event and then finally the last-chance C Event. Once teams lose in C, it’s C-you-later as they’re eliminated from the tournament.

Two teams from the A Event (3-0 records), three teams from the B Event (3-1 records) and three teams from the C Event (3-2 records) advance to the quarterfinals.

The way the 16-team triple knockout is set up means a team is always facing another team with an identical record. You’ll never have games where one team has already qualified for the playoffs and is playing a team that has already been eliminated.

It also means a team controls its destiny as the path to the playoffs is straightforward. Teams don’t have to worry about tiebreakers or draw-to-the-button shootout totals eliminating them. As long as you’re in it, you can still win it.

Another aspect that makes triple knockout unique is teams could play the minimum three games to qualify (and thus get a day off to rest up for the playoffs) or they may need an additional game or two to advance. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Some teams perform better under pressure with elimination on the line plus the more they know about the ice and how the rocks are reacting can help them in the playoffs. Or at least that’s what they say.

Let’s take a deep dive into the data to see what the numbers mean.

Which bracket produces the most champions?

Since triple knockout returned to the Grand Slam of Curling in 2014 after a hiatus for a few years, there have been 10 events in the series to use the format. Seven of them have occurred at the Canadian Open while the Masters, National and Players’ Championship all used triple knockout during the 2021-22 season.

Here’s what the numbers tell us:

Where the champions have qualified from.

Men’s division champions overwhelmingly win after qualifying out of the A Event. The lone winner from the C Event happens to be our starting point. Brad Gushue started the 2014 Canadian Open at 2-0 then lost back-to-back qualifiers to Mike McEwen and Brad Jacobs before defeating John Morris to finally punch a playoff ticket.

Another fun Gushue fact: He’s won three Grand Slam men’s titles in events that featured triple knockout and no repeats as his team qualified through a different path each time. Gushue made it out of the B Event at the 2017 Canadian Open and posted a perfect record through the A Event at the 2021 National.

Only twice have the men’s and women’s champions qualified from the A side in the same event: the 2019 and 2023 Canadian Open tournaments. Brendan Bottcher won both men’s titles (although with different lineups backing him up), with Rachel Homan taking the women’s title in 2019 and Satsuki Fujisawa in 2023.

Those are the only two times we’ve seen an undefeated women’s champion through triple knockout events, as the B Event appears to be the favourite path.

Anna Hasselborg has captured three Grand Slam of Curling women’s titles in triple knockout events winning two after qualifying through the B Event and one from the C Event. What’s interesting about the latter is Hasselborg lost her first two games then won six straight en route to the 2022 Players’ Championship women’s title. Hasselborg also became the first women’s skip to complete a career Grand Slam with the victory.

The other women’s champion from the C Event was a shocker as Casey Scheidegger claimed the 2017 Canadian Open in her team’s top-tier Grand Slam of Curling debut. Scheidegger stole single points in three ends, including the game-winner in the eighth, to stun Silvana Tirinzoni 5-4 in the final. It was the lone loss of the week for A-qualifier Tirinzoni.

How about runners-up?

Let’s expand the data a little bit and look at the pathway for runners-up.

We have a tie between A and B at the top on the men’s side, while C leads by one in the women’s division. It’s interesting the B Event goes from the preferred path for winners in the women’s division to last for runners-up.

There have been three all-A finals: the 2015 Canadian Open (Gushue vs. John Epping), 2022 Players’ Championship (Niklas Edin vs. Bruce Mouat) and 2023 Canadian Open (Bottcher vs. Edin).

That’s right, there hasn’t been an all-A final in the women’s division. We also haven’t had an all-C final in either division.

The 2018 Canadian Open is the one event with zero A-qualifiers across both finals. Champions Peter de Cruz and Chelsea Carey qualified out of the B while runners-up Edin and Michelle Englot advanced from the C.

Combing the two tables and let’s see which bracket produces the most finalists.

Although it’s fairly even in the women’s division, it’s clear the best path to the final on the men’s side is to get there undefeated.

Gushue has been in the most men’s finals and is the most successful, with a 3-1 record. Edin has also been in as many men’s finals but is 0-4.

Hasselborg continues to lead the women’s side at 3-0. Homan is tied at three final appearances but holds a 2-1 record.

Who brings their “A” game?

One last thing to examine is who has qualified 3-0 through the A Event the most, regardless of the final.

Gushue and Edin top the men’s side at four times each with Mouat and Jacobs right behind them at three apiece.

There’s a tie for first in the women’s division as well with Homan and Tirinzoni leading the way with four each. Below them is a tie between two former skips who now throw third stones: Tracy Fleury and Val Sweeting. Both have qualified at 3-0 twice.

Those are your A teams. Don’t you love it when a plan comes together?

We’ll end this with a not-so-fun fact: Twelve teams — four men’s teams and eight women’s teams — have gone 3-0 to qualify out of the A Event only to get eliminated in the quarterfinals.

The 2018 Canadian Open is the best (or worst) of the bunch as three of the four A-qualifiers were knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. The 2020 Canadian Open and 2021 Masters also saw both women’s A-qualifiers ousted in the quarterfinals.