I’ll admit that I’ve questioned Auston Matthews’s decision to play for ZSC in the Swiss league this season. When I first heard about it, I was dead sure that it wouldn’t come to pass or, if it did, it couldn’t have a positive impact on the development of the kid who is bound to be the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NHL Draft. Not that it could set him back or derail him in any way, just that it wouldn’t advance his game.
Other No. 1 picks, the likes of Crosby and McDavid, didn’t have to go this route. I’ve never heard anyone in the NHL suggest that Nos. 87 and 97 would have been so much farther ahead if only they had put in their draft year in a European pro league, the Swiss league no less.
While I’m at it, I’ll admit that I bought the rumours that this was just a ploy to force a trade—the way the story went, Matthews wasn’t going to sign with Everett, the WHL team that owned his rights, and wanted to play in Portland. The Arizona-born centre had spent his season in the U.S. National Team Development Program and didn’t have an inclination to go the NCAA route but didn’t want to be told where to play either. At least that’s how it looked to me.
And at worst I thought the decision to sign with ZSC was a cash grab.
Well it’s mid-August and Matthews’s move to Switzerland is set in stone. Everett never made a trade because there was no trade to make.
I asked a couple of NHL scouting directors for their opinion on Matthews’s move and they had some interesting insights. I haven’t done a complete 180 but I can see that it might work out for the best.
Said one scouting director: “It’s a good move for him. He’s going to play with more skilled players [with ZSC] than he would have in the WHL. He’ll face tougher competition and have more support when it comes to working out and all the gym work. He’ll be playing for Marc Crawford who’s a good coach and is good with young players. He’ll have [Matthews’s] attention in a way that maybe not all [major-junior] coaches really command from their players. I don’t think that there’s any issue when it comes to the big ice. To go play on the European sheet won’t help or hurt his game. And it’s not like he will have any problem physically playing with pros—he’s more physically mature than 99 percent of the kids in his draft class. He’s a late birthday. If he was born a week or two earlier, he’d be playing in the NHL this season … could have gone third or maybe even second in the draft [in June]. He’s looking for challenges and this looks like a good one for him. Not for every top kid in his draft year necessarily. Turning 18 in September means he can get his work visa and get cleared to play in the [Swiss] league. The way it works out, a kid like McDavid with a January birthday [Jan. 13] would have to wait until mid-season to get the work visa unless something could get worked out.”
Another scouting director dove in deeper: “I don’t know if this is really a test case for other draft-eligible players, but everyone in hockey will be watching this play out and it could have real consequences. What’s more likely to happen is that we’ll see drafted kids [already turned 18] who’ll consider this as an option. If they’re not signed [by their NHL teams] it’s really their choice to make coming out of their draft year or as 19-year-olds. Even if they’re under NHL control, I’m not sure that [NHL teams] would have a problem with it. Look at Nikolay Goldobin—he was in Sarnia for a couple of seasons then signed with San Jose [coming out of his draft year]. Last year he played for HIFK [in Finland] at 19 rather than go back to Sarnia and [San Jose management] didn’t just approve it but helped set it up. I think it wound up being good for his game—Goldobin has a lot of offensive skill but he needed to work on the [defensive] parts of his game and a season with pros in the Swedish league was good for that. There was no way he could get stale or develop bad habits. It’s a situation-by-situation thing and I think that we’re going to see NHL teams, top junior kids and their agents watch how this unfolds with Matthews.”
Not landing Matthews was a blow to Everett and the WHL simply because the team and league lost an elite player for a season. For the team and the league the damage is limited. In a far less publicized case, the same story goes for Goldobin and Sarnia. The larger question is whether the CHL will see a flight of kids following Matthews’s lead for fun, profit and development. If things work out for Matthews, as seems likely, some who come in his wake will benefit and some will be casualties who’ll second-guess themselves.