Every Sunday during the regular season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings”.
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1. If the rumors are true about Derick Brassard being a serious trade target for the Blues, he has sure aided his own trade value over the past week. With a goal and two assists on Saturday, Brassard now has goals in four consecutive games and five of his last six games. This recent run of success was preceded by an eight-game pointless drought, so any real and fantasy teams interested in Brassard could experience both peaks and valleys.
2. Hat tricks among defencemen are rare. So, Dougie Hamilton owners will gladly take his three goals on Saturday. With 13 goals, Hamilton is only behind P.K. Subban for goals by a blueliner. Hamilton’s success in scoring goals (double-digit goal totals in each of the last four seasons) comes from his ability to take shots. Hamilton’s 180 shots on goal places him in the top 5 in that category. Hamilton also has 12 points over his last 11 games.
Something that is helping Hamilton’s cause at the moment: he has logged at least seven minutes of power-play time in three of his last five games. The Flames haven’t always used Hamilton on the first-unit power play, but they are now. Both player and team are benefitting.
3. Anze Kopitar has been an example of consistency throughout his career, as he has reached 25 goals for the eighth time in his career after scoring two goals on Saturday. After barely finishing in the top 100 with 0.68 P/GP last season, he is having a nice bounce-back campaign, as he is back within the top 20 with 1.09 P/GP. He has also been very consistent recently, scoring 17 points over his last 15 games. A coaching change from Darryl Sutter’s stifling defensive strategy to John Stevens, and Pierre Turgeon’s more up-tempo strategy, has had a major positive fantasy impact on Kopitar.
Some other factors are at play for Kopitar. He is also shooting the puck again, as he is on pace for nearly 200 shots, a number that he has not reached since the 2013-14 season. As well, his ice time is up more than a minute per game, which might have something to do with fellow centre Jeff Carter’s injury. Only Aleksander Barkov has a higher ice time per game than Kopitar (21:56). So, Carter’s return could be a concern, as it could slightly cut into Kopitar’s fantasy value.
4. Lost in the resurgence of the Avalanche this year among the many stories of the team – Nathan MacKinnon’s Hart-worthy campaign pre-injury, Alex Kerfoot’s rookie year, and Mikko Rantanen’s continued growth as a producer – is the resurgence of Gabriel Landeskog.
It’s easy to forget that from 2011-2016, he was one of three players in the league to manage 20 goals, 30 assists, 50 penalty minutes, and average two shots on goal per game in each 82-game season. The other two were Jamie Benn and Evgeni Malkin. That’s really good roto consistency, and if you play in leagues with hits he was even more of a stud.
Like most Avs, everything fell apart in 2016-17 when he posted a career-low 18 goals and a career-low 15 assists (again, counting only 82-game campaigns). Well, he’s on pace to crack more than 20 goals and 30 assists, and average two shots on goal per game again. He probably won’t crack 50 PIM, unless he can take a 10-minute misconduct here at some point, but he’s still on pace for somewhere around 35 with roughly 130 hits to boot. He’s back to being who he was and that’s a consistent stat-stuffer.
5. At the risk of gushing too much over Mathew Barzal, please allow a bit more gushing. With 62 points in 60 games, he’s on pace to become the 28th player in NHL history to be a point-per-game as a rookie. More impressive: He would be just the fourth in the last 25 years (Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby), and the first in a decade. I used 70 games as the cut-off so please don’t scream at me, Oilers fans.
There are few players I would trade away Barzal one-for-one in dynasty leagues – this is definitely not a ‘sell-high’ situation. Enjoy the ride, everyone. If John Tavares sticks around as a free agent, the Islanders will be one of the most entertaining shows on ice for years to come.
6. Justin Schultz looks to be in line for a huge fantasy value boost. While he had been syphoning top power-play minutes away from Kris Letang for a while now, it seems like this may be a more permanent state of affairs. Reportedly, coach Mike Sullivan wants Letang on the second unit because he’ll feel less obligated to distribute and focus more on getting the puck to the net. Given the talent on the top PP unit, that makes sense.
If Schultz is indeed locked into the prime power-play minutes, he should be able to greatly improve his PP production and thus his overall production. Again, great news for Schultz owners, bad news for Letang owners.
7. Ducks’ Ondrej Kase quietly has 16 points in 17 games since the start of January and is doing it without the benefit of top unit PP time. I don’t love the massive shooting percentage spike from last season’s 6.5 percent to this season’s 16.5 percent, but as a sophomore we don’t yet know his true shooting value. It’s likely somewhere around 10-12 percent, as is the case with most skilled forwards. Is this a legit breakout, or fool’s gold? There’s a strong argument that he is the one driving the line with Nick Ritchie and Adam Henrique. Kase hasn’t had elite linemates for most of the season, spending only 11 percent of his shifts with Ryan Getzlaf.
8. Coyotes’ Clayton Keller has perked up with eight points in the last six games. He has really slowed after a hot first month but that first month showed us how talented he is. Perhaps he can put together another crazy run.
It’s worth remembering that strange things can happen with talented players over smaller samples. After the trade deadline last season, Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar were top-30 scorers. Would you be shocked if Keller finished up the season with a crazy run of 20-plus games with point-per-game play? The Coyotes have been more competitive in the second half, albeit without much offence. Don’t overreact to this hot streak but acknowledge that something productive could be happening here.
9. Someone is going to stop Eeli Tolvanen eventually, right? The 18-year old first-round pick for Nashville has been a force for Jokerit this year even if his scoring slowed down after a scorching start. His first game at the Winter Olympics saw a four-point effort (one goals and three assists) against Germany., and he followed that up with two goals against Norway.
There’s a reasonable argument to be made that instead of pushing more future assets into a rental at the deadline that the Predators should just try to bring Tolvanen over once his KHL season is done.
Maybe, but I think that this runs counter to how the Predators like to bring along their prospects. The learning curve for Tolvanen wouldn’t be as heavy coming over from the pros in Russia, as well as having played in North America last season, but I do still suspect there would be some teaching required. I’d suggest that you don’t count on him offering anything this season and maybe not even next if the Predators really take their time. Eventually though, this is another shot-generation monster they have coming.
10. Vladislav Namestnikov’s name has emerged on the trade market. I’d put the likelihood on him getting dealt on the low end of the spectrum but what a whirlwind for a guy who was one of the hottest options through the first three months. Since then, he has bounced around the lineup, seen his minutes drop, and has just 10 points in the last 21 games. Even if not traded, we have serious cause for concern here.
11. With Brian Elliott on the shelf for 5-6 weeks following core surgery, Michal Neuvirth becomes the primary goaltending option in Philadelphia. We know that he is capable of going on world-beating runs and it cannot be ruled out for a Flyers team that has been awfully competitive in the second half.
The Flyers don’t have a back-to-back until early March, so Neuvirth is in line to get all the starts up to the trade deadline. That probably isn’t enough of a sample size with which the Flyers front office can really assess things, so they may also want to get one more look at backup Alex Lyon before the deadline, just to be sure they are comfortable with this tandem.
They should be looking to add a goaltender for insurance, especially because of Neuvirth’s own injury woes. However, the Flyers have been very patient with their rebuild and likely are unwilling to throw major assets at this issue.
12. Lars Eller has 14 points in his last 20 games. He has 29 points on the season and his career high is 30. Four of those 14 points are via the power play. He’s seeing secondary PP time this year after not seeing much at all in three prior campaigns.
At 28 years old, he could be finally showing a bit of the potential that we thought he had when he was 20. Not that he’s going to Josh Bailey or Brad Marchand his way to stardom suddenly in his late 20s but on a team in need of depth scoring such as Washington, I can see him surprising next year with 50 points. Man, that seems bold just re-reading it. But I’m just not used to seeing a solid 18-game run from him like this.
13. I think Jean-Gabriel Pageau will go. I think he’s a fit for the Penguins and is totally GM Jim Rutherford’s MO. If they acquire him, he’ll be the third-line centre. which is a huge upgrade in terms of fit and an upgrade to last year’s Nick Bonino. It would also allow Jake Guentzel to go back to the wing in the top-six, providing his owners with solid end-of-season production.
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14. Gustav Nyquist, like many Red Wings, was (stupidly) given a no-trade clause. The Wings have to get out of some of these, so why not ask him to waive it? He is signed through 2018-19 and then becomes unrestricted. The Wings could really restock the shelves with a couple of picks and/or prospects that they would get in return. He hasn’t turned out to be the star they’d hoped he would become by now.
15. I remain in on Max Domi as a rebound candidate for next season. I am now batting around the theory that at least some of his struggles are related to a move to centre. Domi started out the year well with 10 points in the first 14 games, playing on the wing opposite Clayton Keller, but then disappeared. Around Christmas, the Coyotes shifted him to centre. His most regular linemates have been guys like Zac Rinaldo and Tobias Rieder. Not exactly ideal circumstances.
Hopefully we don’t have another Alex Galchenyuk situation where a team can’t decide if a top youngster is a centreman or a winger. And hopefully we don’t go through the same dance with Keller in a couple of years. They do seem committed to Domi at centre. His struggles came before this shift but I don’t think it has helped him get back on track either.
16. Florida’s Vincent Trocheck’s 22 goals put him three back of a career high, which he’ll surely eclipse. He is a strong bet to get to 30. He’s been awesome for a couple of years but he hasn’t been able to get consistent top unit PP time. He’s getting it now (in his magical fourth year) and has emerged with a career-high 16 PP points already.
17. Yanni Gourde has points in 11 of his last 13. His upside is ever-changing in my mind. I was high on him as a prospect; loved the way he worked his way up from being undrafted. Then last year, I saw him in a couple of AHL games and came away unimpressed.
So, when he started the season, I had his upside at 70 points. But he’s on pace for 62 as a rookie. Does that mean 80 is feasible in several years? I’ve often maintained that Gourde was similar to Jonathan Marchessault in terms of ‘against all odds’ and ‘just needs a chance’. But while Marchessault never got a chance with Tampa, other than a brief 10-game stint when Tyler Johnson was hurt, Gourde is getting that chance. So, the Lightning gets to enjoy Gourde’s breakout after missing out on Marchessault’s.
18. I was concerned about Mikhail Sergachev’s limited usage all year and it really seems to have caught up. He hasn’t scored a goal since December 16. He has just eight assists in his last 25 games and even suffered from a couple of healthy scratchings. Seems like you could gain some benefit from looking elsewhere.
19. Wild’s Eric Staal has 52 points in 58 games this season. To note here is that Staal’s ice time has gone down nearly a minute since the holiday break. So, fantasy owners have a decision to make. Does Staal maintain solid production now that his top winger, Nino Niederreiter, has returned to his line from injury, or does his shooting percentage being so high, and shot rates declining, indicate a player who should be moved? I would lean to moving but it always depends on the return. Don’t just give him away.
20. Jack Eichel’s injury is brutal for fantasy hockey owners. Eichel had 21 points in his last 19 games, 53 points on the year, was going to push for 20 power-play points, and was going to soar past 250 shots on goal. You can’t replace that on the waiver wire.
For those that don’t own the Sabres’ star in keeper leagues, now is the time to buy if the person who does own him is in the hunt for first place. If that person doesn’t want to move him, so be it, but they should be motivated to do so. Dobber has him as a top-10 keeper skater in his most recent rankings update and I concur. Even if it’s 90 cents on the dollar, now is the best time to go trade for him.
One player to look into with Jack Eichel out: Ryan O’Reilly, whom we should expect to play ludicrous minutes over the next month or so. The do-it-all centerman is already averaging 20:29 per game (10th in the league among forwards). There’s already a blueprint for what O’Reilly might look like with Eichel out. In the two months that Eichel missed last season. O’Reilly averaged 22 minutes and 3.5 SOG per game. If O’Reilly can replicate the shot rate he put up without Eichel last season, then he can offer roughly 75 percent of what Eichel was.
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