Every Sunday this season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from the writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings” on DobberHockey.com.
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1. Happy New Year everyone!
I said years ago that some smart team was going to land Sam Gagner, once the Oilers finally gave up, and would find a way to turn him into a real player. Never in a million years did I think that it would be Columbus, but here we are.
They have turned him into hockey’s version of the DH, skating limited/sheltered even-strength minutes and then using him as a power-play specialist. More and more teams are doing this to help extract more out of their lineup. It’s a great way to take advantage of the supreme skills a player has, while not leaving them overexposed.
2. Now that Jaroslav Halak has cleared waivers and will report to the AHL, we can get a handle on the Islanders’ goalie situation. Halak, owned in just under 50 per cent of Yahoo leagues, becomes droppable in all but the deepest of formats. Expect him to remain in the AHL unless there is an injury to one of the other two goalies. He could still be traded to a team desperate for a netminder but the Islanders would probably need to retain some salary and receive very little in return.
Thomas Greiss automatically deserves a pickup in the 50 per cent of Yahoo leagues in which he is a free agent. He’s probably not a top-20 option between the pipes, but his ratios are at least respectable (2.49 GAA, .922 SV%) and his win total should improve now that he doesn’t have to share the net with Halak and his $4.5 million per season contract.
3. Jason Zucker scored again on Saturday to give him three goals in his past five games. He also finishes December with 11 points (six goals, five assists) and a plus-11 in 14 games. He’s on pace for 52 points, and his plus-23 rating places him in the top five in the league in that category.
I can remember during the summer when someone in my keeper league was offering him for free. I wish I would have taken advantage.
4. Kris Letang made a somewhat surprising return on Saturday, as the Penguins don’t play again until next Sunday. He recorded two assists in 25 minutes of ice time.
Justin Schultz owners might be worried, but the two can probably coexist. Schultz recorded an assist in 23 minutes. Both received over four minutes of power-play time in this game. Schultz scored 18 points and was a plus-16 in 15 December games, so you’re not dropping him. But sell high if you’re really worried. Just remember that Letang was around for half the month, even if it seemed longer than that.
5. Vincent Trocheck owners have been pulling their hair out all season when using him. But he’s recently found his scoring touch, scoring goals in three consecutive games with five points over that span. This streak coincides with Aleksander Barkov’s (lower body) absence from the Panthers’ lineup. So, if you believe that the Barkov injury will help Trocheck, then Vinny will go on a nice little run for two or three more weeks.
6. Chris Kreider has been lights out recently, scoring six goals over his last four games. Like the aforementioned Trocheck, Kreider’s streak comes with another regular player out of the lineup (Rick Nash). Kreider is already on pace for around 65 points, so he may not be affected that much once Nash is back. In addition, no player scored more goals in December than Kreider, who found the back of the net 11 times last month.
7. The goaltending pendulum in Calgary might be swinging back to Brian Elliott. By posting a win against Arizona, Elliott has now won four consecutive games, allowing three or fewer goals in each of them. Granted, the opposition is scraping the bottom of the barrel in the Western Conference (Arizona twice, Colorado, and Vancouver). Yet Chad Johnson has lost each of his last four games, allowing at least three goals in each of them. Things in fantasy hockey can change like the chinook winds in Calgary.
8. Juuse Saros looms as an option to replace Pekka Rinne should the Predators continue to sit on the outside looking in but I think it’ll be a long time before they consider him a full time option, no matter how well he performs.
9. I have a rule about not trading Alex Ovechkin in leagues that score SOG. Even if his shot rate has declined due to a decrease in ice time, I think there’s a decent chance this reverses course in the second half. Sure, the Caps are extremely likely to make the playoffs, but they are in a Wild Card slot right now and well back of the Rangers for third in the division. If they want to move up, they’ll have to start pressing the issue.
10. I didn’t notice until now but Jamie Benn is shooting way less than normal this season. He has just 87 SOG and is on pace for less than 200 SOG for the first time since the lockout-shortened 2013 season. Tough to score goals when your shot output tanks. His scoring has picked up a bit with 12 points in the last 11 games but I’m a little sour on Benn.
To be clear, Benn is on pace for 74 points. Benn is fine. He just isn’t producing at the level where he might challenge for another scoring title. Not that he would with the way Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid are going, anyhow.
11. Speaking of guys with declining scoring and shot rates: John Klingberg actually shot more in the month of December – 28 SOG in 14 games. By no means is that great but it’s an improvement. He also put up seven points. Still not turning it quite around.
12. Evander Kane is firmly in the land of streamers for me. I’ll use him when he is hot (like now) and dump him when he is not. I do not give up trade assets for streamers. He’ll likely be on the waiver wire in a month.
13. Sami Vatanen has missed the past few games due to illness. With Vatanen out, Brandon Montour finally made his debut Thursday. I can’t imagine Montour will stick but this is a good way to get him some experience while also dangling the carrot to keep him motivated and developing at the AHL level. The Ducks have too many capable defencemen but that is not a bad problem to have.
14. Long term, I don’t think Artemi Panarin will be sticking around in Chicago. He will hit unrestricted free agency after this latest deal at the age of 27. That’s when he’ll cash in big time and the Blackhawks do not look positioned to be the ones who do the paying.
Maybe they’ll make it work. They have always found a way to keep their absolute best players around but I don’t see it. But this is all far enough away that fantasy owners shouldn’t be concerned. The Panarin, Patrick Kane, Artem Anisimov trio is locked in for two and a half more seasons, which should perform at an elite level.
15. Justin Faulk’s injury opened a slot for Ryan Murphy to crack the lineup. I am more interested in Jaccob Slavin and Noah Hanifin than Murphy, but he’s notable.
16. A couple of weeks ago, I begrudged the use of Jake Gardiner as the Leafs’ No. 1 power-play defenceman. Boy, do I ever look stupid. Gardiner has nine points in his last 10 games with six of those coming on the man advantage. I still think Morgan Rielly is more talented but you can’t knock what has been working.
17. Charlie Coyle had a scorching-hot December. Someone on the DobberHockey Forum seemed hesitant to drop Coyle at the start of the season, and now I can see why. Coyle collected 15 points to go with a plus-nine in 14 games this past month. That’s propelled him to 30 points in 36 games for the year. It looks like a fifth-year breakout is really happening.
18. Cody Ceci scored his first goal of the season in his 35th game on Tuesday. Man was I wrong about him as a potential 35-point sleeper. But if your league counts ice time, he’s at least cashing in in that category with over 23 minutes per game.
19. Steve Mason was pulled due to a hand injury Friday, which could be trouble for the Flyers if he misses extended time. Anthony Stolarz has some talent and could run with the gig but I don’t view him as a long term threat.
20. For fantasy purposes one day, I have a feeling that Tyson Jost’s real-life game will be better than his fantasy game – similar to the value of Patrice Bergeron or Jonathan Toews, whom Jost models his game after. If you’re wondering how Jost dropped all the way to 10th overall, his draft stock probably couldn’t get much higher because his absurd numbers last season (104 points in 48 games) were in Junior A. In my keeper league’s entry draft, Jost fell to 12th (to me), probably for that reason.
Keep in mind that three players from the league Jost played in last season (the BCHL) were drafted in the first round: Jost, Dante Fabbro, and Dennis Cholowski. The level of hockey in this league is not a huge dropoff from the WHL, and pursuing an NCAA scholarship is a wise choice (CHL players are ineligible for NCAA scholarships). I’m surprised more players don’t take this route with the fallback option that an education provides.
