It was night two of three in the NHL’s brief pre-season exhibition period before the games get real on Saturday.
And while we’re excited to have hockey back on TV, it’s important to remind ourselves not to get too reactionary to what we see, or don’t see. The physicality is not up to playoff standards yet, there’s plenty of rust to work off and even conditioning is still catching up. Coaches are trying certain lineup combinations that they may not have in a meaningful game and there’s just nothing on the line yet.
But we shouldn’t ignore them either. It’s important to see who is getting ice time and sustaining a spot on a certain line, or which teams have made adjustments to improve old weaknesses. This is the only look we get at the teams, and the only games the players have to get ready for the playoffs, after all.
Here’s what we saw on Wednesday that was of note.
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PANTHERS DEFENCE PROBLEMATIC, LIGHTNING ON POINT
You might look at the Florida Panthers and fancy them as a sneaky Cinderella pick, at least for a couple of rounds. They can score. They’re well-coached. The New York Islanders aren’t a particularly terrifying opponent. And, hey, Sergei Bobrovsky is bound to catch a hot streak at some point, right? That alone is reason to buy into the potential.
He sort of did it last season. A lot of negative attention has been given to Bobrovsky this year for struggling through his worst season as a starter after signing a $70 million contract last off-season. He wrapped up with a .900 save percentage, a far fall from recent seasons that ended .913, .921 and .931.
But he wasn’t great from start to finish a year ago either. Through the first four months of 2018-19 he had a .901 save percentage, then caught fire the rest of the way and is remembered for leading the Blue Jackets to a series sweep of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Why can’t he do that again this season?
The problem is deeper than that in Florida. The defence in front of Bobrovsky doesn’t do him any favours, finishing in the bottom-third in shots against and high danger chances against per game. Columbus was much tighter than that a year ago. Against the Lightning on Wednesday, who were without Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman in the lineup, the Panthers were out-chanced 23-11 at 5-on-5 and Bobrovsky allowed five goals on 34 shots.
So if you’re betting on Bobrovsky to bounce back and believe in the Panthers to do some measure of damage in the playoffs, you’re also buying into that defence being better. The 5-0 loss to Tampa Bay did nothing to inspire confidence that will happen.
The Lightning, meantime, looked about as good as you’d expect. The tic-tac-toe plays and give-and-go’s were aplenty and they didn’t look like a team that’d been off for four months. Andrei Vasilevskiy looked solid, Anthony Cirelli dangerous, and Brayden Point led the way with two goals and an assist.
The Lightning will still have three games to tune up before they really start to matter. They’re playing for home-ice seeding in a round robin against Boston, Washington and Philadelphia before Round 1 of the playoffs begin. Barring injury, they should be finely tuned by then and eager to erase memories of last year’s disappointment.
KEVIN FIALA IS GOING TO HAVE A HUGE SERIES
In the last month and a half of the regular season, Kevin Fiala was a top-three scorer in the league. He was better than a point-per-game player from Jan. 1 onwards and the player we’ve been waiting on a breakout from for a couple years finally appeared to do it.
But what can we make of that? Was it a nice hot streak, or something stickier than that? Will Fiala settle in closer to 60-65 points, or was he really breaking out as something more?
We have to be careful about reading too much into meaningless exhibition games, but Fiala was clearly Minnesota’s best player on Wednesday. He passed both the eye and stats tests, looking like a dominating force while his line outshot the competition 12-3 at 5-on-5. He had a team-best six shots and drew two penalties as well. Had the Wild not struggled so much on the man advantage (1-for-8), perhaps that last note could have been a more important factor.
The exhibition effort was the first sign that Fiala may pick up from where he left off and continue on a tear. Vancouver has had a weakness defending this season and was trending in the wrong direction before the pause. If Fiala comes out like this in Game 1 against the Canucks, he could be a tone-setter early and a real problem.
ALEX OVECHKIN IS READY TO GO
Just a reminder that Alex Ovechkin is incredible and, seemingly, unaffected by Father Time.
If it’s supposed to take older players longer to get back to peak shape after such a long layoff, then the 34-year-old Ovechkin hasn’t aged in about a decade. In a 3-2 exhibition win against Carolina, Ovechkin led all players with five shots, two goals and three points.
It’s like he never left.
KEEP AN EYE ON JOHN CARLSON
Norris Trophy finalist John Carlson couldn’t finish the game after falling awkwardly into the end boards.
Teams aren’t going to take risks with the health of their players in these games, let alone a star like Carlson. So it’s hard to read too much into that for now. Head coach Todd Reirden said Carlson was held out of the game for extra precaution, but keep an eye on updates Thursday in case this turns more concerning.
CANUCKS GM CONFIDENT A DEAL WILL BE STRUCK WITH JACOB MARKSTROM
Vancouver’s MVP this season was probably Markstrom, even though he missed the last few weeks of the season to injury. He’s a pending UFA, too, and in our world where the NHL’s salary cap is making an unscheduled freeze at $81.5 million, there’s some concern about how the Canucks can get a deal done and also be able to handle the expensive raises coming to Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson a year from now.
Speaking with Sportsnet’s David Amber in the first intermission of Vancouver’s exhibition game against Winnipeg, Canucks GM Jim Benning talked about how those negotiations are going.
“I’ve got a good relationship with Jacob and we talked again yesterday,” Benning said. “We’re going to get something figured out for him. We both decided let’s just wait until after the playoffs are done and we’ll sit down with his agent Pat Morris and with Jacob and we’ll get something figured out. We want to keep him on the team. He’s been a good goalie for us here the last couple years and a big part of our team.”
It’ll be an interesting situation to monitor. Markstrom has been excellent and steady for a few seasons now in a Canucks uniform, and is coming off a value $3.66-million cap hit that demands a raise. Vancouver shouldn’t have much trouble fitting that into next year’s cap, but with bigger deals on the horizon, it’s two years out where the pinch may be felt the most.
Markstrom has the leverage of unrestricted free agency in his corner, but it’s not exactly the best season to flex that option. He’d have suitors for sure, but every team has to deal with the unplanned flat cap and the goalie market also includes Robin Lehner and Braden Holtby. Plus, there could be trade options, too.
CAN NOAH DOBSON HAVE AN IMPACT?
If the Islanders are boring, it might actually be a good thing.
This is a team that wants to be good on the defensive side of the puck. Even if they lose the overall shots battle, if they control play and keep shots to the perimeter they’ll be in a good spot. That’s largely what happened in Wednesday’s 2-1 win over the more skilled Rangers.
You had to take note of the Andy Greene-Noah Dobson defence pairing in this one. Dobson especially was exciting, leading all Isles D-men in CF% and expected goals percentage at 5-on-5. A first-round draft pick and two-time Memorial Cup champion, Dobson is going to be a towering figure on this blue line one day, but was in and out of the lineup as a 20-year-old.
Could he be playing his way into the playoff lineup right now? He’s perhaps less “safe” than other starters here, but his upside is extremely high. That kind of lineup decision won’t be made off one single exhibition game, but keep an eye on what coach Barry Trotz says and does with practice pairings in the next few days.
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