Adjusted for Era: Ray Bourque vs. Erik Karlsson

Ottawa Senators captain Erik Karlsson's inspiration was fellow country mates such as Mats Sundin and Peter Forsberg.

Last time I wrote about numbers adjusted for era, I wrote about Sidney Crosby’s numbers against Mario Lemieux‘s. A couple of criticisms stood out:

• A player’s point totals, even era-adjusted point totals, don’t show how good a player was defensively.

• Comparing Mario Lemieux to any forward who isn’t Wayne Gretzky is a waste of time.

The first one is obvious. It’s very hard to compare Crosby and Lemieux just using numbers, especially when numbers from 30 or more years ago are so limited. The point of these “Adjusted For Era” pieces is just to compare points.

The second is a lesson that helped me write this one. Comparing Crosby to one player didn’t do Crosby justice. You have to compare today’s great players to several great players of the past to get a good idea of how well they stack up.

Today I was going to write about how Erik Karlsson compares to… Bobby Orr.

I very quickly realized that was dumb.

In Karlsson’s best season he scored 92 era-adjusted points. Orr’s best was 129. Orr beat Karlsson’s best season six times. Karlsson is one of the best defenders of this generation and by the end of this I think you’ll agree that he is one of the best offensive defenders of all time, but he doesn’t come close to Orr. Is that because Karlsson is bad? No. It’s because Orr was a ridiculous one-off we’re probably never going to see again.

How about Paul Coffey?

Once again, Karlsson’s best season featured 92 era-adjusted points. Coffey’s best season was 108 era-adjusted points and he beat Karlsson’s best season five times. The gap isn’t nearly as large between Coffey and Karlsson, but it’s still significant.

Beyond Orr and Coffey, Karlsson stacks up and even beats most of the best offensive seasons any defender has ever had in NHL history.

Who are some of the best defencemen of the past few decades? Ray Bourque comes to mind. Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Leetch, Al MacInnis, Chris Pronger, Phil Housley, and Scott Niedermayer certainly make the list. Sergei Zubov sneaks in there. For current guys, you might add bearded beast Brent Burns or reigning Norris-winner Drew Doughty.

Well, here’s how Karlsson stacks up.

First and foremost, guys like Doughty, Pronger, and Niedermayer didn’t make this list. I didn’t even mention guys like Borje Salming or Scott Stevens. No sign of Duncan Keith either. Again – this isn’t looking at their overall defensive quality. We’re just looking at their era-adjusted point totals.

I made the cutoff for this list the 78 era-adjusted points Karlsson scored this season, which he himself has topped in three other times.

Karlsson has beaten the top offensive season of offensive monsters like Lidstrom, Housley, and Zubov three times already. Bourque’s best offensive season matches Karlsson’s third-best season. Only MacInnis’ absurd 1990-91 season where he put up 103 points, or 92 points when adjusted for era, matches Karlsson’s best offensive output.

I should remind everyone that Karlsson didn’t win the Norris last year when he put up 82 points, which is 92 when adjusted for era. Doughty, who had 51 points or 57 when era adjusted won it. Now again, offence isn’t everything when it comes to judging defenders, but holy cow Karlsson was on another level last year.

This past season, Karlsson was actually beaten offensively by Burns. Karlsson had 71 points (78 when adjusted for era) while Burns had 76 (83 when adjusted for era). Fans need to appreciate the performances of Karlsson and Burns over the past two seasons for what they are: Some of the best offensive seasons we’ve seen a defenceman (not named Paul Coffey or Bobby Orr) ever have.

So yes, you can argue that Karlsson’s game has blemishes or he isn’t the best in his own end. Though the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs should have put that to bed, even his biggest detractors have to respect Karlsson’s offensive numbers. Karlsson’s production so far in his career compares him to the likes of Leetch and even Bourque when adjusted for era.

He might not be a lock just yet, but the way he’s playing, Karlsson is en route to the Hall of Fame.

For more current matters, will Karlsson win the Norris in 2017?

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