The probability is that the damage is done and Jonathan Bernier will never again be the starting goaltender of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
That’s probability, not certainty. Karri Ramo likely thought he wasn’t going to be starting for the Calgary Flames anytime soon after going through waivers en route to the minors earlier this season, and he’s now made 13 straight starts.
So things can change, sure, and it’s worth remembering that last season, many were wondering whether James Reimer would be able to show his face in the Toronto crease again, and now some (Don Cherry) argue he’s the best goalie in the sport.
Bernier’s situation just feels a little different, however. For certain, his game has gone south, and he looks like his confidence is just shattered. Repairing that in the minors won’t be difficult, particularly since being demoted, even on a conditioning assignment, is humiliating to an experienced goalie like Bernier.
Beyond that, head coach Mike Babcock just seems to have no time for Bernier and his failings, and less sympathy. That has to be a reflection to some degree about how the Leaf bench boss thinks in general about the goaltender’s ability even when he was playing well. After all, Babcock certainly handled Jimmy Howard more gently last season in Detroit when he struggled compared to the blunt phrases he has used when discussing Bernier.
"At what cost?" he said several times on Monday night when asked whether Bernier was likely to play anytime soon. In other words, even on a lowly team like the Leafs, Babcock had come to the point when he regarded putting Bernier in the net was tantamount to telling the entire team he didn’t care if the Leafs won or not.
Coaches can change their minds, and Bob Hartley changed his mind on Ramo. But more often, it’s a move to another organization that does it for a goalie who has lost his mojo, like Steve Mason going to the Flyers or Devan Dubnyk being picked up by Minnesota.
It’s the resurrection of Dubnyk, meanwhile, that should make the Leafs tread a little carefully here. It’s not like by removing Bernier from the picture they’ve somehow solved their netminding issues. This is a franchise that hasn’t had a dependable starter since Ed Belfour, and Reimer and Sparks don’t exactly represent championship goaltending at this point. Before they decide Bernier can’t be their man, they need to be very, very sure, and need to have exhausted all possible options for helping him re-discover his game..
Indeed, it seems more likely that the 27-year-old Bernier will compose himself and start stopping pucks again than it is that he never will and his NHL days are over. The question is whether he can rebuild under the scrutiny that accompanies being a goalie in Toronto, and whether he can gain the confidence and affection of his teammates they way Reimer has been able to.
It also must be asked whether this was ever going to work. The No. 2 goalie who successfully moves to a new organization and becomes the No. 1 goalie is a rare happenstance in the NHL. It’s just such a different mindset, as the Leafs knew from their experience with Vesa Toskala.
Bernier can say he agreed to this conditioning stint and the Leafs can say they think it’s just a temporary setback, but there’s not a long list of goalies who found themselves in this situation and then fought back to start again in the NHL.
Given the fact there’s not much of a goalie market out there right now, Bernier may stay put in the Leaf organization for some time, but that doesn’t mean he’ll ever be able to gain the confidence of the coaching staff.
That a 27-year-old goalie with a pretty expensive contract can be dismissed so quickly by an organization that won’t be competing in the Stanley Cup playoffs this spring tells you a great deal about how the Leaf organization feels about Bernier.
It’s not like they desperately trying to win games. They’d just rather lose with somebody else in net than Bernier.
