After a year of speculation and favourited tweets, we’re just days away from 26-year-old Steven Stamkos becoming the best available free agent since at least Zdeno Chara in the summer of 2006. Chara signed with the Bruins, was instrumental in breaking a 39-year Stanley Cup drought in 2011, and getting back to the final again a couple years later.
What makes Stamkos special is obvious. His finishing ability is second to none in the NHL, ranking first among players with 300 or more even strength shots on net in the past four seasons with a 15.12 shooting percentage. Stamkos isn’t a particularly high volume shooter, though. He gets his shots, but he isn’t Alex Ovechkin in that regard. He makes his bank by picking corners that no one else can.
Stamkos has never achieved the same peak in shot volume, but likely the best comparable for him in terms of offensive skillset is Brett Hull, who played in an era when it was much easier to score and shot 15.2 per cent in all situations in his career; compare that to Stamkos’ 17.2 per cent so far. Stamkos had an off year with “only” 36 goals in 2015-16, but is seen as a potential 50-goal player. Hull scored 50 goals twice after he turned 26, but never hit the heights he achieved before that age, partly due to the fact the NHL was becoming more defensive and because Hull’s shot rate and shooting percentage declined.
Hull averaged 48.3 goals per 82 games the seven years following his 26-year-old season, which is amazing, but he averaged 67 goals per 82 games the five years he played in the NHL before that. Stamkos broke into the NHL younger and if you omit his rookie season, he has seven high scoring seasons, averaging 48.4 goals per 82 games. For argument’s sake, if Stamkos were to decline at the same rate as Hull and score 27.9 per cent fewer goals per 82 games over his next contract, he would be a 35-goal-per-82-games scorer for the duration.
That’s more than you can hope for from almost any unrestricted free agent you could sign, but it’s probably not the gaudy numbers you want to see if you’re shelling out $10-12 million per season. So the question is whether Stamkos is elite enough outside of his shot in order to be worth that kind of money long term.
Keeping in mind that last year was a tough one for Stamkos, as he jumped back and forth from centre to wing, let’s break down his even strength play in detail, ignoring shooting since we’ve already covered it.
With a reputation as a shoot-first player, you probably wouldn’t guess that Stamkos is an above average playmaker, but he is. Stamkos was above Lightning average in completed passes to the slot, passes off the rush, and way above in East-West passes, the three types that most often result in high quality scoring chances. He doesn’t like to pass to players low in the zone, but loves to send the puck up to a defenceman at the point, something Joe Thornton does constantly to create gaps for himself later.
Despite Stamkos being most successful as finisher off the left circle, he is a varied attacker, who can break teams down during cycles, or attack dangerously off the rush.
It shouldn’t be surprising that Stamkos is below average in terms of puck retrieval in the offensive zone, because he isn’t the main forechecker or distributor of the puck on his line. His main function is getting open and shooting, so being below team average in retrieval isn’t a big worry. The same goes for the defensive zone, where Stamkos plays pretty tightly to the middle of the ice as a centre, and cheats a bit for breakout passes when he can.
However, it is somewhat surprising that he is below average when it comes to controlled exits, both passing and carrying the puck out. Considering Stamkos’ skating ability, his carry-outs should be similar to his controlled entries — above team average and a highlight of his skillset. It could be that he wasn’t used properly on the breakout in Tampa Bay though and a likely spot for improvement.
What is notable is that despite his sup-bar zone exit numbers, Stamkos is still above team average in moving the puck up the ice with control overall, registering nearly 17 possession-driving plays per 20 minutes played at even strength.
No one expects Stamkos to be a shutdown centre, but in the interest of getting a complete look, we need to see how well he defends. You definitely do not want Stamkos blocking shots, so it’s good that he doesn’t do that very often, but ideally you would hope that a player with his instincts would be able to pick off more passes. Stamkos isn’t a bad defensive player, but he’s below average.
So what do teams looking to sign Stamkos have the opportunity to acquire? A hyper-elite finisher who should score more over the next seven years than any other unrestricted free agent in the recent past. A signing team would also get a solid playmaker who can attack in a variety of ways, transition the puck up the ice with speed and creativity. But any team acquiring Stamkos should know they’re not getting a player who’s going to particularly help their forecheck or backcheck, and possibly not help clear the defensive zone or get the puck from opponents.
For the next seven years, Stamkos is probably worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $8 million per season, but as an unrestricted free agent, $10 million is a digestible premium to pay for a player who should score 35 goals in a bad year.
