Two games into the series between the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets, and it’s already living up to the hype that we all had built up for it. The Predators have held the slight edge in play for most of the first two games, but the Jets’ ability to create quick-strike offence and even out or even take the lead out of nowhere shows just how dangerous they are.
When I previewed this series, one of the more interesting aspects of it to me was that these two teams were particularly good at defending the exact methods that the other team was most effective at using to create scoring chances.
The Predators are excellent at defending the cycle and breaking up opposing forechecks, while the Jets are league leaders in cleaning up rebounds to cut down on second chance opportunities.
Because of this, one guess that I had going into the series is that there would be a lower percentage of overall shot attempts coming from the slot, with each team’s biggest strength shut down, you usually get more perimeter play as teams try to find a way through the blocked shooting lanes.
As it turns out, that guess was correct through the first two games, as each team has seen their percentage of total shots coming from the slot drop from the marks they posted in the regular season, with the Jets being the far bigger drop, and the two teams essentially on an even playing field at 5-vs-5.
However while both teams are getting essentially an equal percentage of their shot attempts off from dangerous areas, there are more layers to it, including execution and shot quantity.
It’s important to note that the first two games have been in Nashville, and home ice advantage does give the Predators an advantage, but looking at the actual shot volume in the series inside and outside the slot, things don’t look too great for Winnipeg so far.
Both teams have seen a significant drop in their ability to get scoring chances on net, with the Predators dropping from 58% of their scoring chances being on net in the regular season to 54.5% this series, and the Jets dropping from 57% in the regular season to just 47.5%.
The Predators have also increased their shot volume drastically, getting more scoring chances on net overall, and more from the high danger area or inner slot as well.
The Jets are missing lots of shots, which could be some bad luck from trying to pick corners, or the Predators’ defending effectively and forcing the Jets to shoot wide.
Even with this significant advantage at 5-vs-5 though, the Predators and Jets head to Winnipeg tied at one win apiece, and the main reason for that is goaltending, but not at 5-vs-5.
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When playing at even strength, Rinne and Hellebuyck have posted remarkably similar numbers, with Hellebuyck slightly better, but outside of 5-vs-5 hockey, Rinne has barely been able to stop anything. When the game isn’t at 5-vs-5, Rinne has posted a 62.5% save percentage, which has allowed the Jets to not only steal game one, but also push game two into overtime.
If the Jets are able to get the matchups they want on home ice and turn the table in scoring chances, Rinne is going to need to be a lot better to keep the Predators in this series.
On the other hand, if Rinne is able to steel himself a little bit, and the trends of the first two games continue, the Jets may be in serious trouble. They’re a team that has owned the slot all season long, and that hasn’t been the case in this series. If the Predators continue to pile up slot chances, and most of the shot attempts continue to come from the perimeter for both teams, that’s a twofold advantage for Nashville.
Not only are the Predators getting the better scoring chances, but their shooters from the perimeter are simply better than the Jets’ are, and this is where that top-four on defence begins to loom large.
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