For my final two columns of 2015, I’ll touch upon strategy for helping to successfully buy low (this week) and sell high (next week), since identifying a player as falling into either category can end up being only half the battle.
In less deep leagues you can sometimes find buy lows on the waiver wire, in which case problem solved. And even if a buy low is already owned, chances are his GM is not happy with how things have turned out so far, and may even offer you the player without you having to inquire about him.
If a buy low hasn’t already been dangled to you in a trade, you’ll want to be careful how you approach his GM. The key is not to tip your hand – you want that GM to offer you the player, not vice versa. That’s because if you mention the player’s name right off the bat, the GM’s suspicions will be raised and the resulting cost probably will be higher. If that plan fails, a good fallback technique is to simply go down the GM’s roster player by player, as that often will help you unsuspiciously get to the buy low player and start the conversation.
But remember: a deal for buy low player isn’t worthwhile if it forces you to give more value in return than you’re receiving. If that happens, then just don’t make the deal – new buy lows (and sell highs) emerge every week, like these…
Four Buy Low Players
Jack Eichel – Although it was difficult to envision Eichel being a buy low as a rookie, in one-year leagues he now qualifies due to disappointing production thus far. With elite shot totals and respectable ice time, but lagging output in PPP and assists, it’s realistic that Eichel will break out soon. In fact, he’s already showing signs, with points in consecutive games through the weekend. But it’s his subpar overall production that will still give you a chance of landing him for a fair price.
Artem Anisimov – The unheralded third member of the Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin line, Anisimov remains a solid own. The key is although he’s only tallied a point in one of 10 December games, his linemates are doing fine, so his spot there is likely safe. That means the points will start to flow again soon, so you should seize upon this lull and try to snag Anisimov as a buy low.
Troy Brouwer – Not only is Brouwer’s current shooting percentage his lowest since his rookie season, it’s also customary for him to do better after the calendar flips. In 2013-14, he had 17 points in 20 games during parts of February and March after posting only 18 in 40 games through December, while last season he had 17 in his first 36 games but finished with 19 in his final 32 contests. If you’re in a deep league where literally every point matters, now looks like a good time to target Brouwer.
Brad Richards – The days of Richards being a lock for 65+ points are over. But despite his struggles on paper, it’s important to note that with Detroit he’s getting regular PP duty, is back up to just under three shots on goal per game, and is spending most of his even strength shifts with Pavel Datsyuk. What that means is once Datsyuk works the kinks out of his game and Richards sees his shooting percentage creep upward from the low single digits, he should return to at least a 50-point scoring pace. Chances are you can get him for a far lower cost than that if you act now.
Four Sell High Players
T.J. Brodie – In his first 21 games, Brodie put up an impressive 14 points, which happens to have been more than Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton or Kris Russell posted in their first 30 (tied with Dennis Wideman’s 30 contest output). But before Brodie owners settle in for the long haul, they should remember he had 21 points in his first 25 games last season, before proceeding to get only 20 more in his remaining 56 contests. Sell now, or risk being stuck with Brodie once he comes back down to earth yet again.
Jason Spezza – Because he managed 62 points last season, Spezza still was a top 40 draft pick among centres for 2015-16. Yet what people forget is he had a boost (10 points in 10 games) from taking Tyler Seguin’s top line spot in February and March. With Seguin healthy, and Spezza getting nearly no time with him or Jamie Benn at 5-on-5, Spezza’s is a long shot to tally even 55 points this season. Try to use Spezza’s name and the high-powered Dallas offence to flip him for a player who’ll give you a guaranteed 60-point scoring pace for the rest of the season.
Dion Phaneuf – Like Brodie, Phaneuf’s decent early start is a mirage. Let’s not forget that after 20 points in 38 games through December 2014, Phaneuf slumped to just nine in 32 games following the New Year. With the type of game he plays and the minutes he eats up, Phaneuf is bound to see his production wane yet again over time, so you need to make sure he’s on another team’s roster once that happens.
Brad Marchand – On the surface, Marchand’s higher than expected production looks like it could continue indefinitely, what with a Shooting % that’s fairly in line with his career average. But his SOG rate is more than one per game above his career average; and once that falls, so too will his goal scoring rate. Plus, his low offensive zone starting percentage and his high PIM and short-handed ice time per game make it very unrealistic for him to maintain his scoring pace.
