They’re making it interesting.
The Toronto Maple Leafs still control their own playoff destiny, needing just one win in their final two games (Saturday vs. Pittsburgh, Sunday vs. Columbus) to get in. If they fail to do that, they could still clinch the last playoff spot in the East, but the whole thing gets a little more messy and complicated at that point.
The Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders are all still alive and competing for that one spot, and here’s a look at their standing heading into Saturday night’s games. Note the Islanders play the Devils Saturday night, while the Lightning wrap up their regular season on Sunday.
If the Leafs don’t win a game in their final two, here are some scenarios that could come into play:
The first tie-breaker is total regulation and overtime wins (ROW), which the Leafs currently lead on. If the Leafs get just one point in their last two games to finish with 94 on the season, they would still qualify for the post-season if Tampa Bay also finishes with 94 by winning in a shootout on Sunday. However, in that same scenario, if the Islanders were to win their last two games in regulation or overtime to finish with 94 points, they would end up with 39 ROWs to pass the Leafs in the tie-breaker. So while 94 points can get the Leafs in, it doesn’t guarantee anything.
Where it gets really interesting is if this comes down to the second tie-breaker, which is total points head-to-head. If the Leafs get one point in their last two games and the Lightning win their last game in regulation or overtime, Toronto and Tampa Bay would be tied at 94 points and 38 ROW. In that case, the Lightning would get in, since they hold the head-to-head advantage.
Meanwhile, if it ends up in a two-way tie in points and ROW between the Islanders and Leafs it would actually be Toronto that would get the tie-breaker win. Since the Leafs and Isles met an odd number of times this season, the first meeting (an Isles win) gets thrown out and the total points over the last two games decides the playoff fate.
Ah, but we’re not yet done. And it gets even more complicated from here.
There’s still a possibility the Leafs, Islanders and Lightning all end up tied in points at 94 and ROW at 38.
If that were to happen, the tie-breaker would be decided by total points percentage against each of the three tied teams — in that case, the Lightning would get in.
Get all that?
The Leafs can still make it easy by simply winning one of their two games. But after that, they can start losing tie-breakers.
If they did fall out and miss, would it be a bigger disaster than blowing the 4-1 lead over Boston in 2013? That’s probably something Leafs fans hope they won’t have to contemplate on Monday morning.
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