Last week, I wrote in this space how I would like to see the Montreal Canadiens win the Stanley Cup this year. And after beating the Pittsburgh Penguins, I’m still leaning that way. I think it would be great for this country to see the Cup come back home.
But my fear is that the ultra-annoying Habs fan is waking up from a 15-year slumber. You know the guy I’m talking about. He brings up the 24 Stanley Cup banners to end all arguments. He swears the best hot dog he ever ate was at the Montreal Forum. And he might punch you if you make a Red Light Racicot joke.
I know, because I used to be one of those ultra-annoying Habs fans before I got into this business.
So if you are forced into the company of a Montreal fan in the next few days, you might be wondering how you can silence him. After all, he’s probably telling you that his team is destined to win the Cup this year. And you probably think you have nothing to say back to him, after his team has posted amazing Game 7 wins over Washington and Pittsburgh.
But good citizens of Canada, I’m here to help you out. Here are four arguments you can use to try and bring a Habs fan back down to earth today and tell him why his team probably won’t win the Stanley Cup this year:
1. Stop The Comparisons to 1986 and 1993
In the last few days, you’ve probably heard a lot of Habs fans say, “This is just like ’86 and ’93, when we won the Cup.” A popular misconception says that the Habs had no business winning Stanley Cups in 1986 and 1993 and they were just teams of destiny. But in 1986, the Habs had home-ice advantage for the first three rounds of the playoffs and they beat a Calgary team in the final that was just two points better in the standings. That means they were expected to win their first three rounds and the final was a complete toss-up. Doesn’t really sound like a Cinderella team to me.
And in 1993, the only adversity the Habs faced came in the first round when they fell behind 2-0 to Quebec. After that, they reeled off a record of 16-2 – but remember that they had home-ice advantage for the last three rounds. That ’93 team finished the regular season with 102 points and once again, the term “underdog” doesn’t really apply. Were these unexpected Stanley Cups? Absolutely.
But in both instances, the Habs received some divine intervention where the defending Cup champs were unexpectedly bounced in the second round (thank you Steve Smith and David Volek). They basically cruised to the final with little resistance in both cases. This year is totally different, because the Habs have slugged their way through the first two rounds, so I don’t think the comparisons to 1986 and 1993 are necessarily valid.
2. They’ve Won Two Game 7s – What Could Stop Them?
Speaking of slugging their way through Washington and Pittsburgh, no team has ever won the Stanley Cup after going the full seven games in each of the first two rounds. Playing in a seven-game series is extremely taxing, both physically and mentally. Look at the injuries that have piled up on the Habs already during this 14-game run.
Last year, the Hurricanes beat New Jersey in seven games, then followed it up with a stunning Game 7 OT win at Boston. Cam Ward looked unbeatable. But Carolina had nothing left in the tank for the conference final and was promptly swept away by the Pittsburgh Penguins. The only other instance I could think of where a team won its first two series in seven games was the 1993 Toronto Maple Leafs. And we all know what happened to them in the conference final against Los Angeles. (Cue the “Kerry Fraser and NOT fatigue cost the Leafs” e-mails to my inbox from Toronto fans.)
3. No Cinderella Team Has Won The Cup… Ever
You’re probably sitting there and thinking that the Habs can beat anyone, now that they’ve knocked off the Presidents’ Trophy winners and the defending Cup champs in the same year.
But never in the history of the NHL has a Cinderella team actually won the Stanley Cup. The 1991 Minnesota North Stars are probably the best parallel to this current Habs team. Nobody gave them a chance in their first-round encounter with the top-seeded Chicago Blackhawks, who finished with the best record in the NHL. After knocking them out, the North Stars promptly dusted off St. Louis (who finished one point behind Chicago) and the defending Cup champion Edmonton Oilers. But in the final, the Penguins were too much for Minnesota to handle.
It’s rare when seventh and eighth seeds make it all the way to the Cup final. The ’94 Canucks, ’99 Sabres, ’03 Ducks and ’06 Oilers all fall into this category. But in each instance, they fell short in a very hard-fought series. I don’t know why it always plays out this way, but the clock always strikes midnight in the Stanley Cup final. No team that has started every series on the road has won the Cup. Take it for what it’s worth.
4. No Goalie Has Ever Single-Handedly Won The Cup
Now you’re reading this and thinking that Jaroslav Halak trumps all of these previous arguments above. But the truth of the matter is that no goalie has ever single-handedly won the Cup – which is what the Habs are asking Halak to do with the way they are playing.
Patrick Roy wasn’t making 35-45 saves a night while his team was constantly being outplayed. But this is what Halak is doing for Montreal right now. Roy was great when he had to be; Halak has to be sharp for all 60 minutes because of the style his team plays.
This Habs team reminds me a lot of the 1999 Buffalo Sabres, who were outplayed on a nightly basis, but rode Dominik Hasek all the way to the Cup final. Sooner or later, it stands to reason that you can’t win on goaltending alone. The 2003 Ducks are also a good comparison, as J.S. Giguere stole series against Detroit and Dallas when Anaheim was outplayed. In the end, both the Sabres and Ducks fell short, despite receiving some of the best goaltending in the history of the NHL playoffs.
Habs fans love to rely on their storied past, which is rich with success in the Stanley Cup playoffs. But this time – even with everything going their way – history may not be on their side.