Sometimes it pays to take a step back and see the forest for the trees. The Montreal Canadiens are in one of those times, where fan frustration has been at a rolling boil for a few weeks, and the axing of Michel Therrien did little to quell it since Claude Julien couldn’t immediately fix the problems in a week.
The Canadiens are 19-20-7 since Nov. 13 after starting the season 13-1-1, and their once-immense lead in the Atlantic Division is now tenuous. In fact, the Canadiens are only four points up on ninth in the Eastern Conference, so it makes sense that people are having flashbacks to last season.
With that said, how representative is that record of the Canadiens’ play over that time? Overall this season, the Canadiens rank fourth in the NHL in score-adjusted Corsi at 52.73% between the powerhouse Washington Capitals and the Pacific Division-leading San Jose Sharks.
Since the cutoff point where they’ve been under .500, the Canadiens have actually improved their play to the point of 53.51% score-adjusted Corsi. This doesn’t mean everything is perfect, but this is a strong indicator that at even strength, this team is good.
There’s no doubt that the team was in free fall in terms of scoring chances the last couple months, specifically with scoring chances against causing havoc, but in three short games, Claude Julien has begun to sort that out.
In the last stretch under Therrien, the Canadiens were giving up nearly double the league average in high danger scoring chances, and overall were pretty bad this season defensively. In three games within Julien’s new structure, with most of the roster admittedly struggling, Julien has shaved 0.2 scoring chances off per 20 minutes from the season average, and almost a full scoring chance off per 20 over the previous 10 games.
Obviously the sample size is small, but we also need to factor in that the teams the Canadiens were facing were the 14th, fourth and sixth best producers of even strength high danger chances in the NHL this season, so it wasn’t soft competition either.
The biggest change from Therrien’s structure to Julien’s is in the team’s structure in transition. Therrien preferred to allow his wingers to cheat out of the defensive zone, while having his defencemen whip the puck off the glass so they can chase it down. Sometimes that would end in a breakaway chance and pundits would praise him for a genius, but most times it ends in a turnover with wingers out of position, and an easy zone entry for the opponent.
Julien, however, wants five skaters in the picture at all times, either using short passes to break out with speed, or skating the puck out with support. That style of play is arguably harder to master because it takes more skill, but the results are less time spent defending, and more chances to score off the rush.
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Under Therrien, 20 per cent of the Canadiens’ defensive zone exits were through dump outs, the third-most in the NHL, whereas over Julien’s first three games, that rate is down to 16.5 per cent, right around league average. That change may not seem like much, but remember that it only accounts for dump-out attempts that succeed in clearing the defensive zone.
Because the breakouts up the wall were so predictable from the Canadiens, opponents were always clogging up their lanes and stopping their dump outs, leading to lots of open passing lanes through the middle of the ice. In fact, the success rate of the Canadiens’ dump outs was just 63 per cent this season, in the bottom third of the NHL.
Cutting down on the reliance of dump outs overall has led Julien’s squad to a 72 per cent success rate on their attempted dump outs, meaning that when they are desperate to clear the zone under pressure, because opponents have to factor in more options, it’s easier to make those clearances.
Because of all these changes though, the Canadiens are currently making lots of mistakes when carrying and passing the puck. They’re a team built on puck pursuit and winning one-on-one battles, so carrying the puck constantly currently has its drawbacks. However, with the level of talent the team has its disposal, it’s unlikely they’ll struggle for much longer.
The progress is there if you look closely enough, and Claude Julien’s record as a head coach speaks for itself, he just needs a bit more time.
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