After breaking down each Canadian team’s path to win their first round series, it’s clear that the Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets face steep uphill battles, while the Calgary Flames look to be in pretty solid positioning as long as their goaltending doesn’t submarine them. But what about the rest of the playoff picture?
Every year Sportsnet asks me to submit a bracket, which is always fun because it usually gets busted right away, and you spend most of the playoffs shaking your head in shame because you went with your gut and probably shouldn’t have.
With that said, of course I’m using some statistics to base my opinions on to craft the bracket, but it’s all for fun.
Looking at who I picked after I went over every matchup, I realized that my finalists are a little boring. I know I’m taking a huge leap in suggesting the top teams in both conferences will meet in the final. Very risky! Very daring!
However there is a reason for that. Doing the in-depth analysis on the Lightning for Steve Dangle’s question in the last edition of Truth by Numbers, then looking at the Flames when analyzing each Canadian team’s Stanley Cup chances, those teams aren’t just the ones that accumulated the most points over the course of the season — they’re the best teams in the league by wide margins.
There are a few areas where this bracket could go wrong in a hurry though, so let’s go through those.
The Sharks could actually get a save
This season, the San Jose Sharks are on par with, or at least close to, the Flames and not too far behind the Lightning in a lot of important areas, but Martin Jones has been ridiculously bad. The Sharks have been a top-10 defensive team all season long, and the only goaltenders to post worse numbers than Jones have been Jonathan Quick and Keith Kinkaid, who are both on far worse teams.
The Sharks are looking especially dangerous now that Joe Thornton appears to have recovered from those knee surgeries. Jumbo Joe recorded 33 points in 39 games to close out the season; his 17th season with 50 or more.
That’s in stark contrast to Jones, who closed out his season with just two games in his last nine with a save percentage above .900, and only one in his last five with a save percentage above .885. That doesn’t give me confidence.
However, Jones has a history of turning it on in the playoffs, and if he can replicate his career post-season average .926 or get anywhere close to that, they could easily beat Vegas, Calgary, and anyone else.
[snippet id=4558775]
The Golden Knights can take Calgary
For a long time now you could call me a skeptic of Marc-Andre Fleury. In an injury-shortened 2017-18 he was absolutely brilliant, but this year his .913 save percentage, while above the league average of .909, was below what would be expected of an average goaltender playing behind the Golden Knights’ suffocating defensive structure.
The Golden Knights have been a top-five defensive team this year in limiting quality chances, but inconsistency has been the most consistent thing about Fleury’s career. He can be brilliant, or he can lose games on his own. And with all that said, I trust him more than the Flames’ goaltending.
Both the Flames and Golden Knights play fast, defensively solid hockey with deep lineups seemingly built for playoff hockey. Calgary is a little bit better, but Fleury could easily be enough to get in the way, as could the Flames’ own goaltenders. If the Flames are tempted to go with Mike Smith for whatever reason, that’s probably the end for them.
Carolina could upset Washington
Similar to last season, I’m not super confident in the Washington Capitals. I know they’re the defending champs and, similar to last season, they really turned it on down the stretch. But things really broke nicely for them in 2018, and Carolina is sneaky good.
By nearly every metric, the Hurricanes are the better 5-on-5 team, and that could easily lead to a surprise victory in the first round, especially if the Hurricanes are as excited for the playoffs as their fanbase seems to be.
Washington’s resilience when faced with elimination last year and the questionable goaltenders patrolling the crease in Carolina still make me lean towards the Caps, though.
2003-04 Rematch
Back before the salary cap was implemented, the Tampa Bay Lightning and Calgary Flames met in the Stanley Cup Final. Before I go any further, let me just say that it was in, and Jarome Iginla deserved better.
Because of that, it stings a little to have to pick against the Flames once again, but the issue between these two teams is that even if their skaters are equal — and let’s be honest Tampa Bay holds at least a slight advantage there — the Lightning have Andrei Vasilevskiy holding the fort.
Big Save Dave has had a good season in a role he likely never expected, but he isn’t anywhere near the quality of Vasilevskiy, which I think will be the difference. Hopefully if this is the final, it will be decided without controversy this time.
[relatedlinks]
