The Stat-ley Cup: Finding trends in past Cup winners

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The 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs are upon us! The playoffs are always a war but this year's battle for the Cup could arguably be one of the most even brackets in at least half a decade. Who's going to win? Here's was the numbers say...

The 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs are upon us! The playoffs are always a war but this year’s battle for the Cup could arguably be one of the most even brackets in at least half a decade. Who’s going to win? Here’s was the numbers say…

The number of the past five winners of the Stanley Cup: Boston in 2011, LA in 2012, Chicago in 2013, LA again in 2014, and Chicago again in 2015. Super producer Alessandro Lobalsamo and Sportsnet contributor Andrew Berkshire dug into the stats to try to find any statistical similarities that all five of those Cup-winning teams shared to see if we could apply that to teams this year. As you’ll discover in the video, those five teams all shared four things.

  • All were top-nine in Even Strength Goal Differential
  • All were top-five in Even Strength Save Percentage
  • All were top-10 in Score Adjusted Corsi
  • All either finished first or second in goals against

There might actually be something to the notion of this year being more even than most because none of the 16 teams in the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs meet all four of these criteria. Not one. Somebody has to win it though. Who’s it going to be?

Watch the video to find out who the statistical favourites are.

What do you think of this statistical formula? With the exception of Score Adjusted Corsi, these are all pretty basic stats. Are these solid criteria or are we making something out of nothing? After all, the stats essentially say “Well, you need to outshoot and outscore your opponent a lot, play good defence, and hope your goalie stands on their head.” It’s not rocket science.

The numbers say one thing. Let’s see if reality says another.

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