Truth By Numbers: How much would Pietrangelo help the Maple Leafs?

Watch all three goals from Alex Ovechkin against the Detroit Red Wings. Ovechkin sits atop the Capitals’ all-time list for hat tricks. He also extended his point streak to 12 games.

Alex Ovechkin is currently leading the NHL in goals, but with his shooting percentage as high as it is regression is due. When that comes, do the way he’s getting his chances suggest 50 goals is still likely? If he hits that mark, it would be an historic season for him.

Plus, with trade rumours around Alex Pietrangelo linking him potentially to the Maple Leafs, just how much of an upgrade would he be on what they have in place, and what would his addition mean to the team?

That, and more, in this week’s column.

SPOTLIGHT PERFORMANCE

Somehow, some way, Alex Ovechkin continues to defy his age and score like he’s in his mid-20s.

With young players such as Patrik Laine and Auston Matthews threatening to become the new goal scoring kings of the NHL — along with hot starts from Jeff Skinner, David Pastrnak, and Brayden Point — it’s Ovechkin who is once again leading the league with a whopping 25 goals in 30 games.

That puts Ovechkin on a 68-goal pace if he were to play all 82 games this season, which is fairly unsustainable when you see he’s scoring on 21.6 per cent of his shots on goal. That’s way above both his career average of 12.6 and the highest shooting percentage season of his career — 14.6 per cent, which he managed in 2007-08 when he scored 65 goals.

I don’t think an article on Ovechkin’s performance being unsustainable is all that interesting. I think most people with a basic knowledge of statistics would see this is a hot streak. What interests me is that he’s already half-way to making history.

[snippet ID=3322139]

Ovechkin is already one of only 13 players in NHL history to score 50 goals or more after the age of 30, and only four players have done so twice: Phil Esposito, Marcel Dionne, Bobby Hull, and Mario Lemieux. But even more impressive, only three players in history have scored more than 50 goals at the age of 33 or older: John Bucyk, Bobby Hull, and Jaromir Jagr.

Ovechkin finished 2017-18 just shy of another 50-goal season with 49, and at this same point of the season he was at 21 goals. So the question is whether he is producing enough offence to make up for the incoming regression — he still needs another 25 goals over the next 52 games.

Considering Ovechkin’s lowest-scoring season of his career would still be a pace of 21 goals in 52 games this seems a probable achievement. But the best way to figure out how likely it is he’ll get to 50 is to compare him to himself.

Ovechkin’s power play scoring isn’t much different than it has been the past few years, so we’ll focus on 5-on-5 hockey.

Last season, Ovechkin saw a pretty significant increase in his percentage of chances that came off the rush, which had much to do with playing alongside Evgeny Kuznetsov. This re-invigorated Ovi’s ability to shoot through defenders off zone entries and beat goalies unexpectedly.

He also moved his shots closer to the net than in years past, which compensated a little bit for his dropping shot rates as he ages.

This year that same trend is holding, but his scoring chance numbers are down slightly from last season, except for chances off the forecheck where he seems to be pouncing on mistakes more often.

If this pace keeps up, we can probably expect Ovechkin to score at a lower pace than last season the rest of the way. But he only needs to score at a 39-goal pace the rest of the way in order to hit 50 on the season, which is absolutely within reach given how he’s producing and the elite talent he has.

Scoring 50 goals is always a tough mark to hit, but betting against Ovechkin is never a great idea.

THE QUESTION

We’ve gone a few weeks without Steve Dangle asking a question about the Maple Leafs, but eventually that dam had to break. So this week Steve got curious about the St. Louis Blues having a fire sale, so he asks…

“How much of an upgrade would Alex Pietrangelo be for the Maple Leafs if he replaces one of Ron Hainsey or Nikita Zaitsev in the top-four?”

Well… a big upgrade.

I’m going to lean a little bit on my positional ranking project from the summer here to do a broader comparison.

But you can pretty easily see the difference between Pietrangelo and Hainsey or Zaitsev.

Of the 193 defencemen who qualified for the project I did over the summer, Pietrangelo ranked 11th in total positive impact for his team, which makes him among the top-half of No. 1 defencemen in the NHL right now. That’s on the doorstep of being elite depending on your definition of the word and certainly a franchise defenceman.

By contrast, Zaitsev ranked 139th and Hainsey 148th, so right away you know there isn’t much of a comparison to make between these players. Pietrangelo would immediately become the Leafs’ best or second-best defenceman, depending on your opinion of Morgan Rielly, who is clearly on a huge upward trend in his career.

While the Blues have imploded this season, they probably aren’t as desperate to unload their stars as people are speculating, so the cost of acquiring a player like Pietrangelo would be high.

If the Leafs were able to do it in exchange for future assets though, it would propel them from legitimate contender status to the same echelon the Tampa Bay Lightning occupy as Cup favourites.

[relatedlinks]

BUY OR SELL

• Nick Schmaltz has had a great start in Arizona with seven points in eight games, though he’s actually been less involved in the offence at 5-on-5 than he was in Chicago. The difference has been on the power play where he fills a bigger role on the Coyotes, and is creating nearly 15 scoring chances per 20 minutes, as opposed to the nine per 20 he was involved in with the Blackhawks. Doubt he can maintain this scoring pace, but he should keep getting power play time.

• With the Kings as bad as they are Jeff Carter’s name is floating in trade rumours, but how much is he worth these days? Carter has a wicked shot, but his scoring chance rates are dropping, and his involvement in creating offence relative to teammates has dropped for three straight seasons. I’d be cautious offering any big packages for him.

• Also reportedly available is Wayne Simmonds. He has a unique combination of scoring ability and physicality that makes him a highly sought-after player. He’s had a bit of a rough start to the season, but is a high-quality finisher who ranked 44th in the NHL among left wingers in my positional rankings project, having a similar impact as the likes of Artturi Lehkonen, Travis Konecny, and Michael Frolik.

• The Islanders are giving up the third-fewest scoring chances in the NHL at 5-on-5 since mid-November, as opposed to the 18th-fewest before then, but they’re actually giving up more high danger chances. So far it’s working pretty well, though. They’ve cut down on chances off the rush as well, allowing the fewest in the league.

When submitting content, please abide by our submission guidelines, and avoid posting profanity, personal attacks or harassment. Should you violate our submissions guidelines, we reserve the right to remove your comments and block your account. Sportsnet reserves the right to close a story’s comment section at any time.