On Jan. 1, the Central Division looked on pace to finish in a way many people predicted: Nashville and Winnipeg would duke it out until the end for the regular season title.
The Winnipeg Jets sat on top with a 25-12-2 record that was third-best in the NHL and ahead of every Western Conference team. Nashville was just behind them at 24-15-2, while Colorado and Dallas were showing pretty well with 46 and 44 points respectively.
The St. Louis Blues weren’t even on the radar. With a 15-18-4 record they sat at the bottom of the league standings with Ottawa.
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A lot has changed since then. Colorado rapidly fell off, but has found second life down the stretch to reclaim a playoff spot. Dallas struggled to find consistency until after the trade deadline, while Nashville has overcome some scoring woes for a top-10 second half record. St. Louis has since been one of the league’s best stories, with a 28-10-4 record since Jan. 1 that is second to only Tampa Bay.
The Jets have been just outside the top 15 NHL teams over this time. Injuries to some key players has certainly contributed to this, but there’s been issues with their play the team is acutely aware of. Following their latest loss Tuesday, a 5-1 defeat that brought their season record against Minnesota to 0-5, the Jets kept the doors closed for a team meeting.
“We’re not very proud of our game right now and it’s the style of game that we’re playing. So, they recognize that clearly and thought it was a good time to chat about it,” head coach Paul Maurice said via the Winnipeg Free Press.
“It would be far (more) of a concern if after Game 80, you weren’t concerned.”
The primary reason for these second half troubles would have to be the absence of defencemen Josh Morrissey and Dustin Byfuglien. Morrissey has been out since Feb. 24 with still no timeline for a return, while Byfuglien missed all of January, came back for five February games, and just returned to action again last Saturday after being out since Feb. 14.
On Saturday night, Elliotte Friedman discussed the expected goals trend around the Jets and how it took a troubling turn when Byfuglien first went out, and got even worse when Morrissey left the lineup. He cited the work done by Sean Tierney on the subject.
It’s certainly not unusual to see a team take a hit on the ice when they have to move on without their top two defencemen. But in the three games since Byfuglien returned, the Jets have been outscored 7-4, outshot 80-75 and outchanced in the high danger area 22-21 by teams sitting outside of a playoff spot right now.
They’ve won just two of their past seven games and now sit tied with Nashville atop the Central at 96 points, just two up on the Blues who have a game in hand. Though the Jets will hold the tiebreaker advantage over either, there’s a possibility they’ll finish third in the division.
As we pointed out when exploring the Tampa Bay Lightning last week, regular season special teams success isn’t indicative of playoff success — 5-on-5 play is far more important in this regard. So while Winnipeg’s putrid PK isn’t a good thing, their even strength trend should be the primary concern heading into Round 1. We already don’t yet know if and when Morrissey will return, but 5-on-5 has never really been a strength of this year’s Jets even when both defencemen were healthy.
(all numbers from Natural Stat Trick)
Winnipeg’s shooting percentages in the two highlighted time periods without their defencemen would both have been league-best totals last season. Had the Jets continued 2019 with the same shooting percentage as they had in the first half, they’d fall from a top 10 offence to a bottom 10 one that got outscored.
“Things haven’t been bouncing easy for us, nothing’s been easy for us. Those are all excuses. Our team needs to show a little bit of resiliency, a little bit of maturity,” captain Blake Wheeler told reporters after Tuesday’s game.
“We’ve run into some pretty good competition here down the stretch. We want to be playing our best hockey this time of year, and we’re not quite there yet. So when it comes down to that, you want to get a team on the same page, you want to get every guy pulling on the rope in the same direction. Sometimes the best therapy for that is having a conversation about it.”
Looking at Winnipeg’s team numbers from Jan. 1 until the end of this season and last, this year’s team is a far cry from how the Jets entered the 2018 playoffs. They have the worst shot share of any team and the only playoff squad with a lower 5-on-5 goal share in 2019 are the Columbus Blue Jackets. Meantime, eight of the past 11 Stanley Cup winners finished the regular season with a top five goals for percentage at 5-on-5.
(all numbers from Natural Stat Trick)
The good news is Winnipeg has a strong collection of performers at the top of the lineup, which can’t be underestimated in a star-driven league. Kevin Hayes has been a big addition and leads the team in even strength scoring since arriving, while Wheeler, Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele can always be counted on. But lately, they’ve gotten strong numbers from lower in the lineup, too. Andrew Copp, Adam Lowry and Mathieu Perreault have combined for 10 goals in the past 15 games, but if their shooting cools to any degree the Jets could find themselves in some trouble.
Winnipeg has two games remaining on its schedule to figure this out and will feel a bit of a playoff atmosphere against Colorado and Arizona who are directly competing for the West’s last unclaimed playoff spot. You’d like to see some level of pushback from the Jets as the season concludes.
At the very least, this year’s Jets won’t head into the post-season with the same all-rosy outlook as a year ago.
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