TORONTO — Even if they’d beaten Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — and the Toronto Blue Jays did not, as arbitrators awarded the all-star first baseman’s ask of $19.9 million rather than the club’s $18.05 million offer — the same pivotal question would have lingered: What was the point of that?
The arbitration process, after all, is based on comparable players and individual stats, with the uncertainty of what happens once arguments are made to a three-person panel usually driving the sides to make a deal. Hearings can also leave players frustrated — a risk worth avoiding, especially with a cornerstone player eligible for free agency after 2025.
Typically, then, the divergence in how club and player see things must be particularly wide to not find middle ground.
The Blue Jays had an unusually busy caseload this year, too, with 12 players eligible for arbitration. They found mutually agreeable comps for everyone but Guerrero. As a "file-and-trial" team, the only way out of a hearing for the Blue Jays after the sides traded offer and ask on Jan. 11 was with a multiyear deal, an avenue they used with Josh Donaldson in 2016 and Bo Bichette last winter.
With Guerrero, there were no negotiations after they exchanged numbers.
All of which makes a pretty hard line for the Blue Jays to take, especially when he’s been on a salary and performance trajectory similar enough to New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso for a strong, convenient and relevant comp.
Alonso and Mets agreed at $20.5 million before the Jan. 11 filing deadline. At $19.9 million, Guerrero's award seems far more in line with that salary than the Blue Jays' offer of $18.05 million, as the chart below shows.
Another seemingly relevant comparable is the $5.9 million raise Juan Soto received in his third time through arbitration after the 2022 season, when his numbers declined after a stronger 2021. Guerrero also dipped in 2023 after a stronger 2022 – at a similar rate to Soto — and last year had a stat line relatively close to Soto's in '22.
The Blue Jays' offer of $18.05 million was a raise of $3.55 million on the $14.5 million Guerrero earned last year. Guerrero’s $19.9 million ask provides a raise of $5.4 million, far more in line with Soto's gain.
What the sides presented during Tuesday’s hearing isn’t known and what tipped the scales for the arbitrators isn’t clear, as they don’t share opinions on their decisions.
But given the simple number matching above, there was a pretty clear pathway to settle before filing. That they didn’t get there led to a counterproductive exercise, as usually when a player of Guerrero’s calibre gets to a hearing, the team loses regardless of result.
That’s why cases like his rarely get this far, with the arbitrators in this case handing out the biggest salary ever decided in a hearing, no matter which way they ruled.
Yet the Blue Jays went there, lost to boot — and for what?
The fallout now depends, in part, on whether Guerrero is able to shake off what he heard in the club’s presentation.
In 2019, when the Blue Jays last went to a hearing, Ryan Tepera was awarded the club’s offer of $1.525 million rather than his ask of $1.8 million and the reliever came away frustrated by what he heard.
When Marcus Stroman lost his case in 2018 ($6.5 million, rather than $6.9 million), he tweeted that "the negative things that were said against me, by my own team, will never leave my mind."
Guerrero is sure to come away from his arbitration case feeling good that he stood his ground and won. But he’ll also know that he was pushed into a hearing room by a team that doesn’t see his value in the same way he does.
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