Armchair manager: How should Blue Jays deploy lineup, pitching in Game 162?

TORONTO – There are 16 different ways the final day of the season could unfold in the American League playoff race but the only ones that matter to the Toronto Blue Jays involve a win over the Baltimore Orioles Sunday.

If the Blue Jays lose, their season ends. If they win? Well, the chaos continues – or at least it could. So even after winning their 90th game of the season on Saturday, the Blue Jays need at least one more. Which means their series finale against Baltimore is, quite literally, a must-win game.

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With those high stakes in mind, we look ahead at some of the big decisions the Blue Jays will soon be facing before and during Game 162…

How should the Blue Jays line things up vs. lefty Bruce Zimmermann and the Orioles?

Ben Nicholson-Smith: There’s no reason to mess with the top of the Blue Jays’ order, so your first five hitters are set. Plus, the way Danny Jansen and Santiago Espinal are playing there’s little doubt they should be in there, too – especially on a day Hyun-Jin Ryu starts.

That leaves two spots: designated hitter and one corner outfield position. On Saturday, the Blue Jays went with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk, and with another left-handed starter slated to pitch for Baltimore it’s conceivable they could do the same Sunday.

But personally, I see a stronger case for switching it up. The four ground ball outs Gurriel Jr. contributed Saturday don’t provide reason to believe his injured hand is fully healed and Randal Grichuk had a hitless day of his own.

Knowing that lefty Bruce Zimmermann has reverse splits, I’d be inclined to roll with Corey Dickerson over Grichuk. At DH, it’d be hard to fully trust Gurriel Jr. and while Alejandro Kirk is tempting I’ll go with Cavan Biggio, who looks good since coming off the injured list and has the ability to get on base for the Jays’ big bats…

1. George Springer, CF

2. Marcus Semien, 2B

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B

4. Bo Bichette, SS

5. Teoscar Hernandez, RF

6. Danny Jansen, C

7. Corey Dickerson, LF

8. Santiago Espinal, 3B

9. Cavan Biggio, DH

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Arden Zwelling

1. George Springer CF

2. Marcus Semien 2B

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B

4. Bo Bichette SS

5. Teoscar Hernandez RF

6. Corey Dickerson LF

7. Danny Jansen C

8. Alejandro Kirk DH

9. Santiago Espinal 3B

Danny Jansen’s in the lineup first and foremost because he’s the most experienced catching Hyun Jin Ryu. But it helps that he’s swinging such a hot bat. Jansen has an 1.197 OPS with 14 extra-base hits over 61 plate appearances since returning from the IL on August 31.

And he’s not the only catcher who will play. I’ve found room for Alejandro Kirk, too, in place of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. at DH. I’m certainly aware Kirk is 4-for-41 since Sept. 8 with three singles and a homer. But I believe he’ll give me a better plate appearance than Gurriel, who I’m not convinced is healthy enough to contribute.

Over 12 plate appearances since Randal Grichuk spiked his hand, Gurriel has struck out twice and hit 10 groundballs. The only time he’s reached base has been on an error. He was at least making harder contact on Saturday after sitting out a couple of days due to his finger injuries. But he does his best damage when he’s hitting the ball in the air. And I don’t believe he can grip the bat tightly enough to do that consistently right now.

Here’s the other thing — I need to get Kirk going. If I reach the wild card game, he’s in my lineup catching Robbie Ray. So, I’m giving him a chance in a favourable matchup against a soft-tossing leftie to see some live pitching and hopefully work his way out of this sump. And even if the results aren’t there for him, I know he’ll give me a better plate appearance than Gurriel. Kirk has 9 walks vs. seven strikeouts since the start of September and is seeing nearly four pitches per plate appearance on the season. I’ll take my chances with him.

I’m also taking a chance with Corey Dickerson against a left-hander. It’s no secret that Dickerson has fared much better against right-handers than lefties over the course of his career. But Bruce Zimmermann holds reverse splits, having allowed an .883 OPS to left-handers over his career vs. .788 to righties. And the numbers are even more pronounced this season, with lefties putting up a .918 OPS against him while right-handers have mustered only .785. To be fair, Dickerson’s career sample is much, much larger than Zimmerman’s. But this call isn’t all about Dickerson.

It’s also about Grichuk. Forget platoon splits. Grichuk hasn’t hit anyone in months. He has a .209/.282/.336 line since the beginning of August. He has two hits in his last 28 plate appearances. And it’s not like he’s finding other ways to get on base. Dickerson, meanwhile, is 13-for-33 over his last 12 games. Seven of the last 13 balls off his bat have carried an exit velocity of 98-m.p.h. or higher. I’ll take the hot hand in an unideal matchup vs. the cold hand in what should be a favourable one.

My one reservation is that, with Hyun Jin Ryu on the mound, the ball’s going to be in play. Grichuk’s a better defender than Dickerson and having him in right with Teoscar Hernandez in left would put better outfield coverage behind my starter. But who needs defence when you score 10 runs? That’s the bet I’m making.

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How long should Hyun Jin Ryu’s leash be after a productive return from the injured list Tuesday?

Arden Zwelling: Ryu’s had some rough outings over the last six weeks, but none rougher than Sept. 11 against these same Orioles when he gave up seven runs on eight hits and recorded only seven outs. He’s still Hyun Jin Ryu — a Cy Young finalist each of the last two seasons who’s as good as anyone when he’s on. But it’s been a while since he’s been on. And I can’t ignore those recent results.

That’s why I’ll have a close eye on Ryu’s velocity in the early going. In that Sept. 11 start vs. the Orioles, Ryu’s four-seam fastball averaged 89.7-m.p.h. When he coughed up seven against the Red Sox on Aug. 8, it sat 89.1. When he allowed three homers against the White Sox on Aug. 26, it averaged 90.1.

On the other hand, when Ryu threw six shutout innings against the Yankees on Sept 6, his fastball averaged 91.8-m.p.h. And when he went seven scoreless against the Tigers on August 21, it sat 91. That extra tick or two of velocity clearly makes a difference for Ryu. So, if I’m seeing 91’s up on the board in the early going Sunday, I’ll relax a little bit and give Ryu some rope. If I’m seeing 88’s and 89’s, I’m not hesitating to get the bullpen going as soon as he gets in a jam.

Location is huge, too. If Ryu’s commanding the inside half of the plate with four-seamers and cutters to right-handers — and the outside half to left-handers — I’ll know he’s in a good groove. Same goes for his changeup. If he’s spotting it on the bottom corners and generating swing-and-miss early, it’s often a sign he’s going to have a good day. But if those pitches are drifting towards the heart of the plate, or missing too far off of it to induce swings, I’ve got to have a contingency plan ready.

Who would that contingency plan be if Ryu can’t get deep into his start? Put it this way — I’m telling Jose Berrios to have his spikes on out in the bullpen for the first few innings. Hopefully, my offence gives me a big early cushion like it did Saturday so that I can ride Ryu through any minor turbulence. But if I fall behind by three runs at any point in the first three innings, I’m telling Pete Walker to have Berrios start warming up. It’s a must-win game. I can’t let an early deficit snowball.

Ben Nicholson-Smith: In his return from the injured list Tuesday Ryu did pitch reasonably well, but we’re still talking about a pitcher who has struggled in recent months. Dating back to the start of June, Ryu has a 5.37 ERA with a .780 OPS allowed over a 20-start period.

In a must-win game, every pitch is high-leverage from the first inning on, so the Blue Jays need to be ready to go to the bullpen very early. Yes, Ryu has been a Cy Young finalist each of the past two years but unless he’s pitching like one Sunday there’s no reason to stick with him.

Remember, the Orioles may be an awful team but their biggest problems are on the pitching side. In Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini they have some hitters who can do real damage. Unless Ryu’s stuff and command are especially sharp, the Blue Jays should plan for most of the outs in this game to be recorded by their relievers.

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Beyond Ryu, how should the Blue Jays deploy their bullpen in a must-win game?

Ben Nicholson-Smith: Thanks to the Blue Jays’ offensive outburst Saturday, they didn’t have to use their top relief arms. That provides them with a fully rested bullpen for the series finale against Baltimore and allows the Blue Jays to hold Jose Berrios back for a potential game 163 tiebreaker.

“I don’t feel I have to use Berrios because our bullpen’s fresh,” manager Charlie Montoyo said after Saturday’s game.

And while closer Jordan Romano was technically available out of the bullpen Saturday, the Blue Jays were better off letting him rest and saving him for Sunday. “If I have to use Romano for four outs, five outs I will.” Montoyo said.

The question, then, is getting from Ryu to Romano. If the Blue Jays can map things out the way they’d like, then Nate Pearson, Adam Cimber, Tim Mayza and Trevor Richards will be the ones bridging that gap. All will be rested and ready after Saturday, setting up the possibility that the Blue Jays’ trusted relievers could cover five innings or more. The way Pearson has pitched, I’d be looking for two innings from him.

It’ll likely be a juggling act, but then nobody said reaching the MLB playoffs was easy.

Arden Zwelling: Thanks to Alek Manoah, Ross Stripling, and my offence, I have zero workload concerns in my bullpen. Everyone’s rested and ready to go as I need them. And since I’m unlikely to let Ryu get too deep into his third trip through Baltimore’s order, I’m going to need them.

And even if I’m working with a four- or five-run lead, I’m still going to leverage arms in relief. No sense messing around. I’ll play matchups with Adam Cimber, Tim Mayza, and Trevor Richards once Ryu’s out of the game. And hopefully, that’s enough to get me to Jordan Romano in the ninth. And if I have to ask Romano to get me the final four or five outs, I’m doing it.

I wouldn’t hesitate to use Nate Pearson in leverage at this point, either. He hasn’t allowed a hit over his last five innings while striking out eight. He’s locating his slider on the plate, which is forcing hitters to guard against it and making his triple-digit fastball even more effective. He’s my guy if I have a couple of runners on and really need a strikeout.

One more wrinkle: on Sunday Robbie Ray will throw his between-starts side session. I’m telling him not to throw it until after the game. There’s a chance I might call on him to throw those 20-30 pitches against the Orioles if things get squirrely.