CLEVELAND — Early in the playoffs, when bullpens were fully rested and hitters were seeing them for the first time in weeks, relievers had a clear advantage.
But after a few weeks of heavy usage, the edge is tilting back to the hitters — a dynamic that’s already playing out in the American League Championship Series and will surely continue in a potentially decisive Game 5. Big questions surround Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase while the Yankees may be without three of their top relief arms as they attempt to win the pennant.
“Everybody is tired,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said after the Yankees took a 3-1 series lead in Game 4. “We’ve used (our relievers) a lot. We’ve had to. It’s who we are.”
With their season on the line, the Guardians are sure to be aggressive with their bullpen, as they have throughout the 2024 post-season. But their plan will start with Tanner Bibee pitching on short rest and if the right-hander can offer four or five quality innings, that will go a long way toward forcing the ALCS back to New York for a sixth game.
The deeper Bibee pitches into the game, the less the Guardians will have to push a beleaguered bullpen later. That’s an important variable considering five of Vogt’s most trusted relievers have already thrown in back-to-back games: Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Cade Smith, Eli Morgan and Clase.
The Yankees hit Bibee hard in Game 2 of the series, scoring three runs against him on the way to an eventual 6-3 win. The 25-year-old recorded only four outs before Vogt pulled him, so he’s feeling relatively fresh even on three days’ rest.
“It’s not like I went out there and threw 100 pitches,” he said. “I threw 39 pitches. I feel good. I’m ready to go.”
Immediately after Tuesday’s Game 2 loss, Vogt told Bibee there was a chance he’d be asked to pitch in Game 5. After the Guardians’ memorable comeback win Thursday, they locked in the plan.
“He’s been our best pitcher all year,” Vogt said. “I can’t wait to get him back out there. He feels good. He feels ready. He wants to pitch again. We’re excited to have Tanner back out there.”
With a 3.47 ERA in 31 starts this season, Bibee earned that trust over the course of 173.2 regular-season innings. At the same time, the Guardians have shown game after game that they’re more than willing to turn to the bullpen early.
That will certainly be the case Saturday, when some of Cleveland’s top arms will be called on to pitch for a third day in a row. That may include Smith, who had his toughest outing of the playoffs Friday, and Clase, who has now allowed nearly as many earned runs in the ALCS (4) as he did all season (5).
“That is what the Yankees do really well,” Vogt said. “They take a really good approach against your pitchers, and when they get pitches over the middle, they don’t miss them.”
While the Yankees don’t face the same do-or-die urgency, any chance to clinch is a huge opportunity. And while no one with the Yankees will openly look this far ahead, a win now would also secure some much-needed rest for their bullpen while lining up Gerrit Cole to start the first game of the World Series.
With those stakes in mind, Carlos Rodón has the chance to make a significant impact on the ALCS for the second time. In Game 1, the 31-year-old left-hander was dominant, giving the Yankees six innings of one-run baseball while striking out nine.
And while he struggled to control his emotions in his first Yankees playoff start against the Royals, Rodón stayed composed throughout his Game 1 outing against Cleveland.
“I stayed within and just controlled what was in front of me,” he said. “And everything behind me and things that I couldn’t control, I just kind of brushed it off. I thought I was very good at that.”
For instance: Rodón screamed when recording big outs against Kansas City, but stayed calmer against the Guardians, mixing in a fist pump or a hop off the mound but little else.
“He grew,” said Yankees manager Aaron Boone. “He learned from that. It feels to me like he’s really gained a lot from the experience of pitching in the post-season with the Yankees.”
That learning curve continues daily for Rodón, who spent part of batting practice Friday chatting in the Progressive Field outfield with Andy Pettitte, the longtime Yankees left-hander with 19 post-season wins and five World Series titles to his name.
Unlike Bibee, Rodón will be pitching on regular rest, and that’s one reason he may pitch deeper into the game than the Cleveland starter. There’s also the fact that Boone says he won’t use any relievers three games in a row. Unless something changes, that means Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle and Tim Hill will be unavailable Saturday.
“I am cognizant of how much most of these guys have thrown,” Boone said. “You’ve also got to have a little bit of that discipline as you kind of go through this. That’s the challenge.”
