The Houston Astros’ formula for remaining a contender over the better part of the past decade has involved thinking outside the box. This is a club that let George Springer and Carlos Correa walk in free agency and was barely hurt on the field.
Because of that, the organization deserves the benefit of the doubt. That’s important to consider now as the Astros continued their roster makeover in a big way on Friday.
Just days after trading away star outfielder Kyle Tucker, general manager Dana Brown has inked Christian Walker to be the club’s new first baseman. That move, however, could spell the end of another longtime Astro.
Let’s break things down with a closer look into the Walker signing.
The deal
Christian Walker agrees to a three-year, $60-million deal with the Houston Astros.
The runners up
The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners were among teams linked to Walker in recent weeks. They’ll now need to pivot in their search for a middle-of-the-order bat.
The player
Walker is a slugging first baseman who can be relied upon to drive in runs. Over the past three seasons for the Arizona Diamondbacks, the right-handed hitter has averaged 29 doubles, 32 home runs, 94 RBIs and a 123 OPS-plus. Those are strong numbers and, additionally, Walker’s advanced metrics are favourable. His 13.3 barrel percentage ranks in the 90th percentile of MLB hitters while his .351 xwOBA is in the 86th percentile. A three-time Gold Glove winner, he’s also regarded as one of the best defensive first basemen around.
That combination of bat and glove has helped Walker produce 10.8 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, over the past three seasons. For context, that’s better than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (10.1) during that span and it trails only five other first basemen.
Walker turns 34 in March, placing him among the older position players in this winter’s free agent class. However, on a three-year pact that’s reasonable from a dollars standpoint, some form of regression from Walker shouldn’t be too onerous for the Astros.
The fit
As mentioned, the Walker move could have ramifications for the Astros. Mainly, it might end the club’s efforts to retain free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman. The Astros had expressed interest in signing Bregman earlier this winter, but the prospect of that waned this week when the club reportedly tried to trade for third baseman Nolan Arenado, only to see him invoke his no-trade clause and squash the deal.
Brown quickly moved on to Walker, who will inject a nice bit offence to a lineup that already features Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, who headlined the return for Tucker from the Chicago Cubs.
Tucker, and potentially Bregman, being gone would represent a significant shift for the Astros, who’d be moving away from two players at the heart of its contending core. The roster is still good enough to compete in the post-season, but the American League West is improving and if the Astros are finished constructing their roster, you could make the argument that they’re not as strong as they were before the churn.
The market
MLB Trade Rumors correctly forecasted a three-year, $60-million deal for Walker.
The next domino
With Walker off the board, fellow first baseman Pete Alonso could be in focus for some teams. If the Astros are truly done with Bregman, his situation could potentially be resolved soon, too, with the Yankees and Boston Red Sox among interested suitors.
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