Baseball Hall of Fame Primer: Who's trending up, who's falling out?

With a controversial foursome no longer on the ballot — Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa — this winter’s Baseball Hall of Fame voting cycle has been decidedly less contentious than prior years.

BBWAA members have fewer problematic cases to consider and less ballot clog to wade through. But they still have several borderline candidates to evaluate, and a final decision to be made on Jeff Kent, who’s in his 10th year of eligibility.

Thanks to the diligent and indispensable work of Ryan Thibodaux and his Hall of Fame tracking team, we can make a decent forecast of what could happen when voting results are announced on January 24.

As of January 19, Thibodaux and co. had logged 158 public ballots in their 2023 Hall of Fame tracker, representing an estimated 42.2 per cent of the electorate. Utilizing their data, let’s look at who’s trending to get a plaque, who’s headed to the Eras Committee, and who’s surviving to fight another day.

Scott Rolen (79.6% of public ballots)

Todd Helton (79%)

Is this finally the year for Rolen? Over his half-decade on the ballot, the seven-time all-star and eight-time gold glover has steadily gained support as the makeup of the electorate has shifted and open-minded current members have reconsidered his case.

If Rolen keeps gaining ground at the rate he has been, he’ll inevitably surpass the 75 per cent threshold necessary to be elected to the hall before his time on the ballot is up. Whether or not he can get there this cycle remains to be seen.

As of Thursday, Rolen appeared on 79.6 per cent of public ballots — a positive sign, but far from a slam dunk considering the amount of ballots still outstanding. Rolen’s netted 11 votes from returning voters to this point but he’ll still need plenty of help on the ballots not submitted to the Tracker to get over the finish line. And it stands to reason that those unwilling to make their ballots public may also be more likely to knock Rolen for perceived shortcomings in traditional counting stats.

We’ll see. Rolen missed election in 2022 by only 47 votes. Don’t be surprised if he misses again by an even narrower margin and, like Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, and Larry Walker before him, has to wait until his final years of eligibility before enough voters come around on his underappreciated career.

Circumstances are similar for Helton, whose steadily increasing support over four years on the ballot has mirrored Rolen’s. The first baseman finished 91 votes shy of induction last year but has already made up 28 of them from returning voters on publicly available ballots this winter.

Voters appear to be coming around to the difficulty of rectifying how David Ortiz and Fred McGriff are hall-of-famers while Helton isn’t. And with five additional years on the ballot after this one, Helton’s induction appears more inevitability than possibility. He may just have to wait for one or two more calendars to turn over.

Billy Wagner (72.5% of public ballots)

Andrew Jones (68.3%)

Gary Sheffield (64.1%)

Carlos Beltran (56.3%)

Alex Rodriguez (41.3%)

Manny Ramirez (38.9%)

Bobby Abreu (19.2%)

Andy Pettitte (18.6%)

Jimmy Rollins (11.4%)

Mark Buehrle (10.2%)

Francisco Rodriguez (9%)

Omar Vizquel (9%)

Plenty of players will earn the five per cent of votes necessary to remain on next winter’s ballot while falling short of the induction threshold. Most prominent among them are Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, two players with undeniable statistical cases who continue to be punished by a portion of voters over their ties to performance-enhancing drug use.

Both players have a strong base of support among voters but still need dramatic vote share increases over the next several years to gain the ground needed for election. Rodriguez stands a better chance of that happening with eight voting cycles remaining in his candidacy.

Ramirez, meanwhile, can appear on only three future ballots before being removed. Considering Bonds topped out at 66 per cent support in his 10th year on the ballot despite accumulating the second-most fWAR in the sport’s history, it appears they’ll both face steep hills to climb.

Meanwhile, underappreciated stars such as Billy Wagner, Andrew Jones, Gary Sheffield, and Bobby Abreu have all seen their vote shares increase in recent years as fresh voters have joined the BBWAA electorate and ballot clog has eased, allowing big-hall voters who don’t penalize for character or performance-enhancing drug ties to ponder alternative candidates.

Wagner in particular is making a strong charge to be only the ninth reliever elected to the hall, netting 26 votes on public ballots this year and pushing within striking distance of the 75 per cent threshold in his eighth year on the ballot.

If Trevor Hoffman’s a hall-of-famer, why isn’t a guy like Wagner who has a strikeout rate 7.4 points higher and an ERA more than a half-run lower over a 900-inning career?

Sheffield is up against it, appearing on 64.1 per cent of public ballots in his second-last year of BBWAA consideration. He’ll need a substantial increase in support next winter to cross the threshold. Jones is a strong bet to get there eventually, appearing on 68.3 per cent of public ballots with four more years to continue increasing his vote share. And Beltran’s made a strong debut with over half of known voters checking off his name. As we move further away from Houston’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal, it’s possible more voters will come around on the nine-time all-star’s candidacy.

Jeff Kent (49.1%)

Torri Hunter (2.4%)

Bronson Arroyo (0%)

Matt Cain (0%)

R.A. Dickey (0%)

Andre Either (0%)

Jacoby Ellsbury (0%)

J.J. Hardy (0%)

John Lackey (0%)

Mike Napoli (0%)

Jhonny Peralta (0%)

Huston Street (0%)

Jered Weaver (0%)

Jayson Werth (0%)

Kent is the most notable name positioned to fall off the ballot, as he’s trending at 49.1 per cent in his 10th and final year of eligibility. He’s gained an impressive 26 votes from returning electors, but he’d need an absolute landslide on private ballots to help make up the 167 votes he missed out on election by in 2022.

Failing that extremely unlikely outcome, Kent will have one more shot at induction via the Contemporary Baseball Era Players Committee which will next consider candidates to have passed through the BBWAA process in 2026. That committee will consist of 16 people, including Hall of Famers, MLB executives, and veteran media members, as appointed by the Hall of Fame’s board of directors.

Meanwhile, Hunter will need to pick up 16 votes on unknown ballots in order to surpass the five per cent threshold required to remain a candidate for a fourth time in 2023. He barely made it to this round of voting, appearing on 5.3 per cent of ballots a year ago.

Meanwhile, there are no surprises among the players trending towards elimination from the ballot in their first year of eligibility: Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, Andre Either, Jacoby Ellsbury, J.J. Hardy, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Jhonny Peralta, Huston Street, Jered Weaver, and Jayson Werth.