Belt adds balance, offensive upside to Blue Jays' 2023 lineup mix

TORONTO – Rather quietly, the Blue Jays have undergone a lot of change over the course of the last few months.

After tilting heavily to the right for years, the Toronto lineup now looks far more balanced with the additions of the left-handed Kevin Kiermaier, Daulton Varsho and Brandon Belt. A one-year deal valued at $9.3 million makes Belt the latest addition to a Blue Jays batting order that gives manager John Schneider some welcome flexibility.

There’s risk in signing Belt, who missed much of the 2022 season due to a knee injury, and we’ll get to that. But since this deal may well be the last significant move for the Blue Jays this off-season, let’s start by seeing how they can deploy their lineup in 2023.

Against right-handed starting pitching, they could line things up like this:

RF George Springer (R)
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (R)
SS Bo Bichette (R)
C Alejandro Kirk (R)
LF Daulton Varsho (L) career .781 OPS vs. RHP
3B Matt Chapman (R)
DH Brandon Belt (L) career .840 OPS vs. RHP
2B Cavan Biggio (L) career .749 OPS vs. RHP
CF Kevin Kiermaier (L) career .735 OPS vs. RHP

Lineups evolve, of course. The Blue Jays used 147 of them last year. And lifetime OPS is admittedly imperfect – it’s simply meant to convey a general sense of a player’s abilities. But this scenario – one that includes Danny Jansen, Whit Merrifield and Santiago Espinal on the bench – would be tough on opposing pitchers and managers.

Against lefties, meanwhile, the Blue Jays could use a lineup along these lines:

RF George Springer (R)
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (R)
SS Bo Bichette (R)
DH Alejandro Kirk (R)
3B Matt Chapman (R)
C Danny Jansen (R)
2B Whit Merrifield (R) career .807 OPS vs. LHP
LF Daulton Varsho (L) career .615 OPS vs. LHP
CF Kevin Kiermaier (L) career .661 OPS vs. LHP

Or, depending on the matchup, they could move Merrifield to an outfield corner and start Espinal and his lifetime .802 OPS against lefties at second base while resting Varsho or Kiermaier. In either scenario, Belt would be available off the bench along with Biggio, giving Schneider options late in games.

Again, these lineups will change early and often. Jansen’s far more than a platoon player. Kiermaier won’t necessarily bat ninth. But by looking at these possibilities, we get a sense of how the addition of Belt could play out in real-time.

With more than a month remaining before spring training, 12 position player spots are spoken for on the Blue Jays' roster and all 12 of those players figure to start somewhat regularly – a contrast to 2022, when the likes of Bradley Zimmer and Gabriel Moreno were around but rarely starting.

A patient hitter with a lifetime walk rate of 12.1 per cent, Belt will be tough to keep out of the lineup if he comes anywhere near his lifetime batting line of .261/.356/.458. With that said, those numbers are far from a certainty following a 2022 season in which a knee injury limited him to 78 games and a .213/.326/.350 batting line.

Belt didn’t play after August 20^th of last year – far from ideal for a player hitting free agency. Evidently, the Blue Jays felt good enough about his health prospects to make him a significant offer, but he still comes at a significant discount compared to his 2022 salary of $18.4 million.

Now, the Blue Jays get to see how close he can get to the 2021 form that saw him hit a career-high 29 home runs in just 97 games. He figures to start at DH regularly while also spelling Guerrero Jr. at first base as needed (on days Jansen catches, Kirk could pinch-hit for Belt against tough lefties late in games).

Though Belt has experience playing left and right field, he last started in the outfield in 2019. With his 35^th birthday approaching and recent knee issues to manage, there’s no need to force it. Instead, Merrifield and Biggio can handle fourth outfield duties with Nathan Lukes, another left-handed hitter, available as depth.

At this point, Merrifield projects to see plenty of outfield playing time, though that dynamic could shift depending on how the Blue Jays decide to use their final position player spot. But there’s little point in worrying about that now. Those decisions typically last until the end of spring training and evolve quickly in-season.

With a full 40-man roster and a projected payroll of $241 million, according to FanGraphs, the Blue Jays have likely completed the bulk of their off-season shopping (they’ll have to clear a 40-man spot for Belt, whose deal has not yet been made official). So while minor-league deals are always possible, this may be the last major move until the trade deadline.

If that’s the case, the Blue Jays will have replaced Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Ross Stripling, Jackie Bradley Jr., Raimel Tapia, Gabriel Moreno and David Phelps with Chris Bassitt, Erik Swanson, Varsho, Kiermaier and Belt.

The resulting team has a chance to be one of the best in the American League. They’ve improved defensively, with the possibility of more balance in the batting order. Yet potential and pedigree only matter to the extent that they show up on the field. After a season marred by injury, the question of what Belt can offer at the plate will play a major role in determining the depth of the Blue Jays’ 2023 offence.