The Toronto Blue Jays begin their highly anticipated 2022 season with the opener of a three-game series against the Texas Rangers at home on Friday night. Hopefully this piece will help you make an informed decision if you decide to put a little sprinkle down on the game.
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Bet365 and are current as of the time of publication.
Money Line: Blue Jays -170 | Rangers +150
Run Line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+115) | Rangers +1.5 (-135)
Total: 9.5 – Over (+100) | 9.5 – Under (-120)
Toronto: The 2021 edition of the Blue Jays played home games in Dunedin and Buffalo before coming north, but were a sizzling 25-11 with a plus-56 run differential when they finally made it back to Rogers Centre.
However, home openers in Toronto haven’t been too kind lately. If you throw out their first game in July of last season, the Blue Jays are a putrid 1-9 over their last 10 true openers at Rogers Centre and have been outscored by an eye-popping 45-25 in those nine losses.
The good news? The Blue Jays have owned the Rangers in Toronto recently by going a scorching 6-1 in the last seven meetings. The Jays were also a rock solid 63-46 (57.7 per cent) as the favourite in 2021 and finished off the season by going 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home favourite. Toronto ended up 86-76-0 (53.1 per cent) against the run line, which ranked sixth in baseball and finished 42-39-0 (51.9 per cent) against the run line as the home team in 2021.
Texas: The Rangers lost 102 games last year but had a surprising off-season by signing free-agent all-star middle infielders Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. This matchup seems like an uphill battle for Texas who finished last season by going 15-49 in their last 64 road games. The Rangers were also a terrible 50-86 (36.7 per cent) as an underdog overall and an even worse 15-42 (26.3 per cent) in their last 57 games as a road doggie to wrap up 2021. Texas was also a mediocre 74-88-0 (45.7 per cent) overall against the run line and 38-43-0 (46.9 per cent) as the road team last season.
My pick: I really want to take the Blue Jays here, but there is something about the Jays laying an egg on Opening Day lately. Jon Gray was good his last time out against the Jays (I know it was 2019) and Semien making his return to Toronto for the first time makes me lean on Texas here on the money line at +150.
Total: A Blue Jays team that boats a lineup of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer and Teoscar Hernández was an under machine last season. Toronto was a robust 84-69-9 (54.9 per cent) to the under in 2021 which was fourth best in baseball. The under was also 13-6-4 in Toronto’s last 23 games as a home favourite. The Rangers, meanwhile, were 78-74-10 (51.3 per cent) to the over and a healthy 43-35-3 (55.1 per cent) to the over as the road team. The over is 5-2-2 in the last nine meetings in Toronto.
Pitching matchup: RHP José Berríos (12-9, 3.52 ERA) gets the ball for the Blue Jays while RHP Jon Gray (8-12, 4.59 ERA) will start for the Rangers. Berríos has started five games in his career against the Rangers and has given up 16 earned runs and seven home runs in 26.1 innings. His most recent outing against Texas was on June 18th of last season with the Twins where Berríos went 6.0 innings and gave up three earned runs on three hits.
Gray has started only two games in his career against the Blue Jays. The right-hander dazzled in his last start against the Jays while with the Rockies. Gray tossed 6.2 innings of two-hit shoutout in a 4-2 Colorado win on June 1st, 2019, in Denver.
Player props: Player total bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1.5 – Over +100 | 1.5 – Under -140)
Take a guess on who led Major League Baseball in total bases in 2021 with 363? You guessed it: Guerrero. The Blue Jays slugger has faced Gray in a limited sample size in his career but has slashed .333/.333/.667 in three plate appearance against the big right-hander.
Marcus Semien (1.5 – Over +110 | 1.5 – Under -150)
Do you know who ended up second in all of baseball in total bases in 2021? Yup, it was Semien. The former Blue Jay is 2-8 with a homer and 2 RBIs in 11 plate appearances against Berríos in his career.
My pick: I think there is too much value here not to take the OVER for both Guerrero Jr. (Over 1.5 - +100) and Semien (Over 1.5 - +110). Anytime you get baseball’s No. 1 and No. 2 leaders in total bases at plus money, you take it even though the line is 1.5.
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