How Blue Jays can bolster bullpen internally, via trade or in free agency

It may not happen as soon as anyone would like, but eventually MLB’s labour dispute will reach a resolution and the sport will move ahead with the 2022 regular season — or at least what’s left of it. The timeline will be rapid, with shotgun spring training camps in Florida and Arizona likely opening within a week of a new CBA being ratified, and opening day looming sometime three-to-four weeks afterward.

That will leave front offices scrambling to fill big-league roster holes as soon as MLB’s transaction freeze is lifted, likely spurring the kind of wild activity that invigorated the sport last November. And the Toronto Blue Jays will be right in the thick of it, seeking to put the finishing touches on a win-now team being constructed to surpass the 91-win mark it achieved last season.

With that in mind, this is the second of a three-part series looking at the biggest roster needs remaining for the 2022 Blue Jays and how the club’s front office could go about addressing them on the other side of the lockout. Previously, we looked at an infield upgrade. Check back later this week for part three.

In big-bearded, bigger-armed Jordan Romano, the Blue Jays have developed a weapon essential for any team with legitimate designs on contention — a lights-out closer. Romano led all American League relievers in win probability added last season, using a fastball that averaged 97.5-m.p.h. and a slider that generated a 36.5 per cent whiff rate to pile up strikeouts, force soft contact, and leave no question that the ninth inning is his and his alone

Mayza was arguably runner-up to Trey Mancini for 2021’s best comeback story, returning from Tommy John surgery better than he was before and working to a 130 ERA+ with sparkling peripherals over 61 appearances, many of them in leverage spots. Garcia can make baseballs behave in ways most pitchers can’t; he also throws strikes and reliably suppresses hard contact.

The only thing keeping Merryweather from being confidently mentioned in the same breath is health, which has sabotaged the greater part of his past four seasons. But if 2022 is the year he finally puts it all together, we’ve seen flashes of what that could look like in a late-game role.

Mix in Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards, two capable veterans who can clean up messes and carry leads through middle innings, plus Ryan Borucki, an out-of-options left-hander with a mid-90’s fastball and a put-away slider, and the Blue Jays have constructed the chassis of a versatile relief corps that ought to be able to shorten games.

And yet, we know the words certainty and trust cannot be attached to any MLB bullpen — no matter how promising it looks on paper. Relief pitching is the realm of volatility and precariousness; the small sample of small samples where the link between projection and results is tenuous at best.

To wit — the San Francisco Giants led the majors in reliever ERA last season, powered by waiver claims and minor-league signees such as Jarlin Garcia, Zack Littell, and Dominic Leone. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals bullpen was a tire fire all year long, despite the club having paid up in free agency to acquire established arms with strong track records like Will Harris, Daniel Hudson, and Brad Hand.

Really, the only thing you can reliably predict about relievers is that you’re going to need an awful lot of them. The Blue Jays used 33 pitchers in relief last season. The Tampa Bay Rays, the 2021 AL leader in bullpen ERA (3.24) and vanguards of the modern era’s evolving methods of pitcher deployment, used 34.

Combine that top-end unpredictability with the necessity of ridiculous back-end depth and it’s clear why the Blue Jays ought to continue reinforcing their bullpen on the other side of the lockout. That means pursuing major-league signings, minor-league deals with spring training invites, and waiver claims — anything to continue building out depth and insulating against the inherently erratic nature of MLB bullpening.

No one needs reminding that the Blue Jays missed the postseason by only a game in 2021. But it’s worth remembering how that team dropped a dozen contests it was leading in the seventh inning or later, and that nine of them came in May and June, when a lack of reliable bullpen options submarined a surging offence and solid rotation’s best efforts prior to the stabilizing additions of Cimber and Richards.

The Blue Jays can’t leave themselves exposed to similar catastrophe in 2022, which is why further bullpen additions — in the form of at least one more big-leaguer with swing-and-miss stuff and several lower-end fliers on minor-league deals — are a must.

Internal options (ZIPS projections)

In an era of fungible bullpens and increasingly varied pitcher usage, every club needs a few optionable relievers on the edge of its 26-man roster. That’s a role Trent Thornton, Anthony Castro, Tayler Saucedo, and Kirby Snead are positioned to fill for the Blue Jays this season — just as they did in 2021. If healthy and effective, they’ll likely ride the shuttle up and down from Triple-A throughout the year, living a thankless, unglamorous professional existence that has nevertheless become commonplace in today’s game.

Veteran right-hander David Phelps, meanwhile, will also return to the club, but this time on a minor-league deal after blowing out a lat muscle last May and missing the remainder of the season. Phelps’s injury — and the surgery to correct it — was uncommon, leaving plenty of uncertainty as to what form he’ll be in this spring. Hence the minor-league deal. His path to a roster spot will be difficult, with several bullpen jobs already spoken for and another major-league addition likely on the horizon.

But of Toronto’s current internal options, Phelps boasts the best track record of success in high-leverage work. And if he’s healthy and throwing anything like he was at this time last year — Phelps had a 0.87 ERA over 11 appearances prior to his injury — the 35-year-old has as strong a chance as anyone in this group of winning a job in the Blue Jays opening day bullpen.

Free agent options (ZIPS projections)

As you’d expect a win-now team to do, the Blue Jays have shifted strategy in recent winters and begun flirting with the top end of the free agent relief market. They pursued Liam Hendriks last off-season before signing Kirby Yates to a one-year, $5.5-million deal. This winter, they’ve already dished out $11 million over two for Garcia.

The value of that Garcia deal alone is greater than the Blue Jays collectively spent on free agent relief over the three prior off-seasons, marking a new willingness to accept the inherent risk — how’d that Yates deal work out again? — of signing high-end talent at MLB’s most volatile, unpredictable position. Which is all to say we can’t rule the Blue Jays out from a pursuit of Kenley Jansen, the best remaining free agent reliever on the board.

With huge horizontal movement on one of the game’s prettiest sliders, and plenty of spin behind a room-service cutter and fastball, Collin McHugh generated some of the most uncomfortable reactions and swings you’ll see from big-leaguers throughout a 2021 season in which he posted a 256 ERA+ with stellar peripherals, minimizing hard contact and getting hitters to expand the zone at elite rates.

Not bad for a guy who struggled to a 4.70 ERA in 2019 and didn’t pitch in 2020 due to injury. But the Rays lead the industry in hits on undervalued reclamation projects like McHugh, who signed with the club for $1.8 million during spring training and went on to give them 64 exceptional innings as a bulk reliever, opener, high-leverage weapon, and everything in between.

McHugh’s in line for a much more sizable guarantee this winter after redefining his career, but the inconsistency of his track record and a history of elbow issues will no doubt be factored into any offers. Still, if he even approaches the effectiveness he flashed last year, McHugh could be a tremendous weapon — and tremendous value on a short-term deal — in a variety of bullpen roles.

If the Blue Jays opt not to shop at the top of the free agent market, or Jansen and McHugh simply prefer to play elsewhere, there remains a secondary tier of good-but-not-great options the club could consider.

Any of those three would be solid late-inning options setting up for Romano, and they ought to be signable for somewhere around the two-year, $17-million value the Houston Astros gave Hector Neris prior to the lockout. If the Blue Jays have the budget, there are worse ways to spend it.

It’s been an incredible and unlikely career turnaround, one that positions Fulmer to cash in as a high-leverage reliever on the right side of 30 when he’s eligible for free agency following the 2022 season. And one that leaves the Tigers with an interesting decision to make.

Detroit is beginning to emerge from a rebuild and splashing money around in free agency on win-now talent such as Javy Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. And Fulmer could certainly be an important part of a push to the expanded playoffs in 2022. Or the Tigers could deal him ahead of his walk year, not only netting a return that addresses another roster need but protecting against the chance Fulmer’s performance regresses.

What we know is the Tigers fielded plenty of interest in Fulmer at the 2021 trade deadline. And they’ll likely be receiving a few exploratory text messages gauging their willingness to move him on the other side of the lockout. Projected to earn $5.1 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility, Fulmer should fit easily within any contender’s budget. And, who knows, maybe there’s another level he’s yet to unlock in year two of his career reinvention.

Chris Stratton features some of the game’s highest spin rates and has demonstrated the versatility to work in a variety of relief roles while pitching to a 116 ERA+ over 61 appearances with a 26.7 per cent strikeout rate the last two seasons.

During a hardscrabble, injury-hampered 2021, left-hander Sam Howard suppressed hard contact, struck out 30 per cent of the batters he faced, earned an eye-opening 40.8 per cent whiff rate with his go-to slider, and flashed a promising fastball with above-average spin he might benefit from using more often.

And David Bednar is coming off one of the more overlooked relief campaigns across the game, having pitched to a 190 ERA+ with tremendous peripherals and expected stats to back it up thanks to a dominant, 97-m.p.h. heater, big-breaking curveball, and sneakily effective splitter.

Rinse and repeat with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals, or Colorado Rockies. It’s a big world of relievers out there, and the job of Toronto’s front office is to find the intersection of availability, effectiveness, affordability, and fit that will reveal the potential additions worth pursuing. It’s not sexy work. But it’s how you build a winner.