Blue Jays' extra-innings loss to Phillies spoils latest intriguing Gausman start

PHILADELPHIA — This is an interesting and challenging time for making assessments in a baseball season. Seven weeks in, some of the randomness inherent to the beginning of the year is starting to normalize, although the distinction between small-sample size aberrations and trendlines locking in remains murky.

In spite of that, the body of work at this point is big enough that patterns become harder to ignore, which brings us to Kevin Gausman, who was absolutely dominant over six shutout innings Wednesday in the Toronto Blue Jays’ 2-1 loss in 10 innings to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Locking horns with Zack Wheeler, Gausman allowed two hits in the first and then, starting with catching Kyle Schwarber looking to end the first, retired 15 in a row, eight by strikeout, including five in a row during the fourth and fifth innings. A two-out double by Trea Turner in the sixth inning ended that run, but Bryce Harper promptly bounced out to third to end the frame.

And he was full value for it, his fastball at 96.1 m.p.h. sitting 2.6 m.p.h. above his season average while topping out at 99, and his splitter getting eight whiffs on 20 swings, wiping away that eight-run, 3.1-inning mess in Boston last time out.

The extra velo "allows me to carry the zone with both pitches," said Gausman, "and that split starts to dive in a little later as opposed to earlier coming out of my hand."

The more intriguing part, however, is the developing pattern in his season that bears watching.

This start came on five days rest, and in four starts with an extra day between outings, Gausman has allowed three runs on 17 hits and one walk in 28 innings with a jaw-dropping 44 strikeouts. In three starts on a normal four days of rest, he’s allowed 16 runs, 15 earned, on 21 hits and five walks with 16 strikeouts in 14 innings.

His fastball velocity averages out at 94.6 m.p.h. with an extra day of rest, 92.5 m.p.h. on his regular day.

Now, is seven starts enough to identify a definitive pattern? Maybe, but that’s where this mid-May timing muddles the picture. The sample is too big to ignore yet too small to reach conclusions.

"Not in May, you know what I mean?" manager John Schneider said. "He's pretty routine-oriented and it's nice for anyone to get the extra day. But at this part of the season, you're not really reading into it."

Fair enough, but Gausman is aware of the phenomena and while he replied, "to be honest, not really," when asked if he felt a physical difference with the extra day of rest, he acknowledged that "if you look at the numbers there's obviously something behind that."

Gausman’s next start, Tuesday at home against the New York Yankees, comes with an extra day, but the next two, versus Baltimore and at Minnesota, will not, as the Blue Jays enter into a stretch of 17 straight games after Thursday’s day off.

"I just need to do a little bit more, I think, in the training room when I know I don't have an extra day to be a little bit more fresh, and to kind of treat it like I have an extra day," said Gausman. "Maybe take a look at my workout. Maybe I needed to deload for a couple of weeks or so. Those are things that I talk with the strength coaches, with the training staff about, trying to figure out what's going on and what can make me be most consistent every five days."

The danger of locking in assessments at this point can be highlighted by Brandon Belt, who looked lost for much of April but turned it on during the 3-6 road trip, capped by his go-ahead homer off Wheeler on Wednesday before a Citizens Bank Park crowd of 31,758.

While one good stretch doesn’t make or break a season, Belt certainly seems more like the impact left-handed bat the Blue Jays were hoping he’d be when they signed him. He’s been trying to lock in more on an approach in which he’s seeing the pitch and trusting himself to adjust rather than guessing at what’s coming, which is what he did on the fifth-inning curveball he sent over the wall in right.

"I was actually a little bit out front, but I was able to keep my hands back enough and keep my head on it where I was able to put the good part of the bat on it," said Belt. "I definitely wasn't looking for it, but I'd seen it the first at-bat, so I had to trust that my eyes would see it."

Belt’s homer wasn’t enough, as after Erik Swanson survived a nervy eighth, stranding the tying run at third base, Jordan Romano surrendered singles to Harper and Nick Castellanos to open the ninth, J.T. Realmuto doubled in the tying run one out later. After Alec Bohm hit into a fielder’s choice, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., making a tremendous throw home to get Castellanos at the plate, and Brandon Marsh was walked intentionally, Edmundo Sosa grounded out to send the game into extra innings.

Craig Kimbrel delivered a clean top of the 10th and then, after Tim Mayza struck out leadoff man Bryson Stott and walked Turner, Harper hit a bouncer to the mound that was relayed to Bo Bichette for one out but his throw to first sailed, allowing Sosa to score the winning run.

"Just got away from him," said Schneider, adding later that Romano’s "stuff was good. Got to convert an out there on Castellanos’s ball up the middle, one way or another and you don't get to that point. … I've seen (Santiago Espinal) make that play a hundred times, either to second or first. We weren't tight enough at the end there to win."

That wasn’t an isolated occurrence in the sweeps the Blue Jays suffered in Boston and Philadelphia, yet they were totally in control in taking three from Pittsburgh over the weekend. Some of that may be tied to their schedule, as they’ve logged a big-league high 25 road games already, compared to just 12 at home.

"Definitely not our best road trip," said Belt. "We were just a little bit out of sync as a team. We'd pitch well one game and not get enough runs. Some games we'd hit well and give up a few more runs. Just got to get back in sync and with this team it's not going to be a problem."

Added Schneider: "Excited to get back home. Feels like we've been playing on the road the first month and a half of the season. … Before this road trip started, we'd been playing a pretty good brand of baseball. There are ups and downs and ebbs and flows and on the road here wasn't our best."

On that front, over one nine-game stretch in the middle of May, there’s not much to read into than that.