Blue Jays face uncertainty as setbacks in starting rotation put depth to test

DUNEDIN, Fla. – In the span of just a few days, the Blue Jays’ starting rotation has become a source of far more uncertainty than expected.

After a season in which Blue Jays starters ranked third in MLB with a 3.85 ERA, two pitchers with frontline potential have been sidelined. First, Alek Manoah was scratched from Sunday’s start with a sore shoulder. He’s playing catch Monday but has no timeline for game action just yet.

And then there’s Kevin Gausman, who led last year’s rotation with a 3.16 ERA on his way to a third-place finish in American League Cy Young voting. He’d been slated to throw two innings and about 40 pitches of live batting practice Monday, but “didn’t really bounce back,” from his latest bullpen session due to “general shoulder fatigue” according to Blue Jays manager John Schneider.

An MRI revealed no structural concerns, and Schneider was sure to repeat that the Blue Jays don’t consider this an injury. Still, Gausman will be sidelined for at least a couple of days, meaning his spring training debut will be delayed further.

Predicting where this leads is futile for now, but if nothing else these setbacks create considerable uncertainty for the Blue Jays. Maybe both Manoah and Gausman will be ready by the season opener against the Rays on March 28. But if one of them needs more time, their rotation depth would be tested. And if both need time? Far from ideal, especially because their biggest off-season addition, right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, is ramping up slowly, too.

In a positive development, Rodriguez’s weekend side session went well, setting up another side this week to be followed by a live batting practice session on Saturday. Still, that means he’s at least a week away from a Grapefruit League debut, which may not give him enough time to ramp up for a bullpen role, let alone a rotation spot. All things considered, It’s entirely possible he opens at triple-A and builds up from there.

There’s also top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, who looked electric in a simulated game over the weekend and said he’s feeling better after a left knee/hamstring issue delayed his progress. Schneider said the Blue Jays were “encouraged” by how strong Tiedemann looked, but said the club was still working through plans for getting the left-hander into a spring game.

Either way, Tiedemann won’t be built up past three or four innings by the end of the month and the Blue Jays aren’t about to rush him into the big-league rotation. More likely, he starts at triple-A and has to earn his way to the majors by throwing strikes with all three of his pitches for a month or more.

Which leaves the Blue Jays where, exactly? Well, Bowden Francis is ready to break camp in this rotation in the increasingly likely scenario that one or more spots must be filled. He’ll start Thursday against the Tigers, when he’s expected to be stretched out to four innings.

“He's in a great spot,” Schneider said. “The fact that his velo is there and stuff was there as his pitch count went up (Saturday) is what we're looking for. So next time out we'll keep pushing him.”

Considering Francis pitched well in the big leagues last year and has logged up to 142.2 innings as a minor-league starter, that’s a promising sixth option to have available behind Gausman, Manoah, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi. Still, Francis has yet to start a big-league game and the options beyond him are equally unproven.

Mitch White, Wes Parsons and 37-year-old Paolo Espino are other candidates to support the rotation if needed, but all come with questions of their own. In the minors, there’s Chad Dallas, who reached double-A last year, posting a 3.65 ERA with 144 strikeouts over 123.1 total minor-league innings. He’ll be stretched out to three innings behind Francis Thursday.

All of which to say, the rotation spots wouldn’t go unfilled, but there’s a meaningful difference between finding someone to cover some innings and someone who can do it with the consistency a contending team requires. And that’s before you get to the toll an unstable rotation takes on a bullpen.

Under those circumstances, you can see why the Blue Jays are hoping Manoah and Gausman can get healthy enough to ramp up toward game activity soon. The alternatives exist, and they’ll be needed eventually, but it’d be preferable not to have to go there just yet.