Grichuk's new offensive profile translating to more production for Blue Jays

Although Randal Grichuk has played just over two full seasons’ worth of games with the Toronto Blue Jays, his tenure in Toronto has been tumultuous.

On May 1 of his first season with the Blue Jays he was hitting .106/.208/.227. Less than a year later, he signed a $52-million extension. His 2019 made that move look like a mistake, even if his 2020 offered some redemption. He’s run hot and cold, seemed to turn corners and doubled back, and in the end he’s hit .248/.297/.477 in his 359 games with the Blue Jays — almost identical to his .249/.297/.488 in 404 games with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Nearing his 30th birthday, Grichuk may seem like a guy who is what he is, a player with above-average power, below-average plate discipline, and the ability to provide solid defence in right field. That characterization is widely believed to be true, and a strong start to his 2021 isn’t enough to shift it.

Although skepticism about Grichuk’s ability to grow is warranted, it’s clear he’s changing as a hitter. While 29 games so far this year undoubtedly represent a small sample, if we include his 2020 Grichuk has hit .283/.322/.481 in his last 84 games compared to the .244/.293/.483 he managed between 2014 and 2019. That 29-point jump in OBP has helped Grichuk evolve from an all-or-nothing power hitter to a more consistent threat.

Surprisingly, this hasn’t come as the result of a more patient approach. Grichuk’s walk rate hasn’t budged, and he’s actually swinging at pitches outside the strike zone a little more. Instead of drawing bases on balls, the outfielder is getting on base by more consistently putting the ball in play. After beginning his career as one of the majors’ foremost strikeout artists, now he’s harder to strike out than the average hitter:

Both the 2020 and 2021 stats come from small samples, but even if we look at 84-game spans, the closest we’ve seen to this is his hot finish to 2018, and his strikeout rate has been in decline for close to 200 games:

The reason for this decline isn’t tough to see. Grichuk’s contact rate has climbed, but what has truly skyrocketed has been his contact rate on pitches outside the zone. From 2014-19 it sat at 55.2 per cent — 328th among 375 qualified hitters. In 2020 and 2021 that number has increased to 68 per cent — 45th among 147 qualifiers

Once again, if we’re talking about 84-game spans he’s never done anything like this before:

While that’s all rather granular, Grichuk making contact on pitches outside the zone is crucial because it has resulted in him fouling off pitches and staying in at-bats with two strikes, giving himself more opportunities to do some damage.

No one or two pitches can tell the complete story on his progression, but it’s easy to imagine Grichuk striking out on either of these 99-m.p.h. fastballs in previous years:

Grichuk hasn’t just avoided strikeouts, he’s turned pitches outside the zones into hits — like he did with his walkoff single on Saturday:

Considering Grichuk has a reputation as a Statcast darling who crushes the baseball, it seems fair to assume that cutting down on the K’s this significantly would allow for more dramatic improvement than we’ve seen. However, it seems that his newfound contact hitting abilities have come at the expense of some power.

The .199 Isolated Slugging Grichuk has produced in 2020 and 2021 — while solid — is lower than any of his previous full seasons, even down years like 2019. He’s also seen his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate fall from his early-career heights, particularly relative to league average:

It appears that Grichuk has cut down on his swing a bit in order to make more contact, and sacrificed some power to do it. However, the gain looks to be more profound than the loss, and the 29-year-old looks better at the plate than he has since his scorching finish to 2018.

This season Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is getting a ton of attention for his transformation — and rightfully so — but Grichuk deserves some credit for altering his game too. Although it’s easy to see the outfielder as a finished product whose strengths and limitations are well-documented, that perception doesn’t mesh with what he’s done since the end of 2019.

[relatedlinks]